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AC Milan - Juventus
🇮🇹 Serie AFinished
Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 18:45
Finished Snapshot
FT0-0
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-0
Predictions
9W · 1L · 0P
Edges
4W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
47%-53%
Shots
8-10
Shots on Target
1-5
Corners
1-3
Quick Take
Under 2.5 goals is the clear high-confidence edge (72% estimated vs 54% implied at 1.85 odds): three 0-0 draws in last five H2H meetings, Juventus missing both senior strikers (Vlahović questionable, Milik out), and Allegri's tactically conservative Milan system (3.6 shots on tar...
Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.572%+17.9pp
Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.560%+4.4pp
Both Teams to ScoreNo58%+10.4pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Under 1.5:MEDIUM confidence prediction (48%) paired with extreme 18.6pt edge (odds 3.40 vs fair ~1.95) signals either statistical noise or market knowledge gap. Three 0-0 draws in H2H are compelling but may not be repeatable; bookmaker's cautious 3.40 line suggests regression risk. Skip the extreme mispricing.
1st Half Goals Over/Under Under 0.5:MEDIUM confidence (52%) with borderline 16.3pt edge (odds 2.80 vs fair ~1.69) on first-half stalemate. While H2H pattern (3 of 5 0-0 at HT) and team stats (Milan 0.4 FH goals) support low totals, a 16pt edge on a 52% estimate is at the threshold of suspicion. First-half markets are volatile; safer to focus on full-match under 2.5.
Match Winner Draw @ 3.20:Draw probability 36% vs 31.3% implied offers only +4.7pt edge at MEDIUM confidence. Falls below 5pt minimum threshold for value despite reasonable directional thesis. Juventus injury uncertainty (Milik, Vlahovic, Perin questionable) introduces enough doubt to avoid.
Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
AC Milan host Juventus on Sunday with both clubs locked in a tight UCL qualification battle—Milan sitting 3rd on 66 points, Juventus 4th on 63—where neither side can afford a defeat. This mutual caution is amplified by a striking recent head-to-head pattern: three of the last five meetings ended 0-0, with four of five staying under 2.5 goals. The fixture carries additional weight through Massimiliano Allegri's appointment as Milan's head coach in May 2025 after replacing Sergio Conceicao.
Recent Form
AC Milan
W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 19SA
L0-3UdineseApr 11SA
L0-1NapoliApr 6SA
W3-2TorinoMar 21SA
L0-1LazioMar 15SA
W1-0InterMar 8SA
W2-0CremoneseMar 1SA
L0-1ParmaFeb 22SA
D1-1ComoFeb 18SA
W2-1PisaFeb 13SA
Juventus
W2-0BolognaApr 19SA
W1-0AtalantaApr 11SA
W2-0GenoaApr 6SA
D1-1SassuoloMar 21SA
W1-0UdineseMar 14SA
W4-0PisaMar 7SA
D3-3AS RomaMar 1SA
L0-2ComoFeb 21SA
L2-5GalatasarayFeb 17UEF
L2-3InterFeb 14SA
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AC Milan Promotion - Champions League (League phase) | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 48-27 | 66 |
| 4 | Juventus Promotion - Champions League (League phase) | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 57-29 | 63 |
3pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
1W · 3D · 1WD0-0JuventusvAC MilanOct 5, 2025SA
L2-0JuventusvAC MilanJan 18, 2025SA
W1-2JuventusvAC MilanJan 3, 2025SUP
D0-0AC MilanvJuventusNov 23, 2024SA
D0-0JuventusvAC MilanApr 27, 2024SA
AC Milan: 3 clean sheetsJuventus: 4 clean sheets1 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
AC Milan
28 availableJuventus
10 out#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury
#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury
#2 E. Holm — Calf Injury
#1 M. Perin — Injury
#9 D. Vlahovic — Calf Injury
#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury
#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury
#2 E. Holm — Calf Injury
#1 M. Perin — Injury
#9 D. Vlahovic — Calf Injury