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Lyon - Auxerre
🇫🇷 Ligue 1Finished
Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 13:00
Finished Snapshot
FT3-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
1-1
Predictions
4W · 6L · 0P
Edges
0W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
55%-45%
Shots
12-9
Shots on Target
6-2
Corners
6-2
Quick Take
Lyon clear favorites with historic dominance (21-3 H2H) against bottom-table Auxerre (4-match goal drought, worst league attack), but recent form dip (WWDLD), manager suspension, and triple defensive absences limit conviction on a straight win.
Context Signals
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Goals Over/Under Under 2.5:MEDIUM confidence prediction (58%) vs implied 53.2% at 1.88 odds yields only +4.8pt edge, below the 5pt threshold for MEDIUM confidence. Tight margin with no genuine mispricing.
Both Teams to Score No:MEDIUM confidence prediction (57%) vs implied 52.4% at 1.91 odds yields only +4.6pt edge, below the 5pt threshold. Insufficient value to warrant backing.
Total Goals Away Auxerre Under 1.5:Market odds (1.25) imply 80% probability—substantially higher than our HIGH confidence estimate (72%). Market disagrees strongly with prediction; this is a trap. Do not recommend.
Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Lyon face Auxerre in what appears a one-sided affair on paper: the hosts command a historic 21-3 head-to-head record and are undefeated in 28 of their last 31 meetings, while Auxerre sit in absolute relegation crisis at the bottom of Ligue 1 with just 7 points from 30 matches. The away side's attacking numbers are alarming—lowest goals in the division (23 for the season) and a recent 4-match goalless streak. Lyon's home defensive record is equally stark: 10 goals conceded in 14 matches (0.71 per game). However, Lyon's own form has softened considerably heading into this fixture.
Recent Form
Lyon
W2-1Paris Saint GermainApr 19L1
W2-0LorientApr 12L1
D0-0AngersApr 5L1
L1-2MonacoMar 22L1
L0-2Celta VigoMar 19UEF
D0-0Le HavreMar 15L1
D1-1Celta VigoMar 12UEF
D1-1Paris FCMar 8L1
L2-3MarseilleMar 1L1
L1-3StrasbourgFeb 22L1
Auxerre
D2-2MonacoApr 19L1
D0-0NantesApr 11L1
D1-1Le HavreApr 5L1
W3-0Stade Brestois 29Mar 21L1
L0-1MarseilleMar 13L1
D0-0StrasbourgMar 7L1
D2-2LorientMar 1L1
L0-3RennesFeb 22L1
W3-1MetzFeb 15L1
D0-0Paris FCFeb 8L1
League Table
Ligue 1 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon Champions League Qualification | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45-30 | 54 |
| 16 | Auxerre Relegation Playoffs | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25-39 | 25 |
29pt gap between teamsAuxerre in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
2W · 2D · 1WD0-0AuxerrevLyonNov 23, 2025L1
W1-3AuxerrevLyonApr 13, 2025L1
D2-2LyonvAuxerreOct 27, 2024L1
L2-1AuxerrevLyonFeb 17, 2023L1
W2-1LyonvAuxerreAug 31, 2022L1
2.8 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Lyon
1 out#5 O. Mangala — Knee injury