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Cologne - Bayer Leverkusen
🇩🇪 BundesligaFinished
Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 13:30
Finished Snapshot
FT1-2
FinishedSettled
Halftime
0-1
Predictions
8W · 2L · 0P
Edges
0W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
45%-55%
Shots
22-8
Shots on Target
8-3
Corners
0-5
Quick Take
Köln's new manager bounce and highest-in-Bundesliga xGoal creation (7.4) meets a Leverkusen side psychologically dented by a late-collapse loss; the away team's superior quality and H2H dominance should prevail, but market prices (BTTS 1.50, Over 2.5 at 1.50) reflect fair value w...
Context Signals
Model probabilities
Markets to Avoid
Both Teams to Score Yes:MEDIUM confidence (65% estimated) priced at 1.50 (66.7% implied) — essentially fair with no margin. At these odds, the edge requirement for MEDIUM confidence isn't met (need 5%+ gap).
Total Goals Away Leverkusen Over 1.5:MEDIUM confidence (58% estimated) priced at 1.60 (62.5% implied) — bookmaker's odds exceed prediction by 4.5pts. Negative value.
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:MEDIUM confidence (63% estimated) priced at 1.50 (66.7% implied) — line is slightly unfavourable. Bookmaker pricing is efficient despite recent high-scoring context from both teams.
Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
Köln's newly installed manager René Wagner has injected a competitive urgency into a relegation-fighting side that's statistically reinvigorated. In his first three matches since March 23, Wagner's team has generated an xGoal value of 7.4 over the last two matchdays—the highest in the Bundesliga—while collecting 5 points including a confidence-building 3-1 win over Bremen and a comeback 2-2 draw at Frankfurt from two goals down.
Recent Form
1. FC Köln
D1-1FC St. PauliApr 17BL
W3-1Werder BremenApr 12BL
D2-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 5BL
D3-3Borussia MönchengladbachMar 21BL
D1-1Hamburger SVMar 14BL
L1-2Borussia DortmundMar 7BL
L0-2FC AugsburgFeb 27BL
D2-21899 HoffenheimFeb 21BL
L1-3VfB StuttgartFeb 14BL
L1-2RB LeipzigFeb 8BL
Bayer Leverkusen
L1-2FC AugsburgApr 18BL
W1-0Borussia DortmundApr 11BL
W6-3VfL WolfsburgApr 4BL
D3-31. FC HeidenheimMar 21BL
L0-2ArsenalMar 17UEF
D1-1Bayern MünchenMar 14BL
D1-1ArsenalMar 11UEF
D3-3SC FreiburgMar 7BL
W1-0Hamburger SVMar 4BL
D1-1FSV Mainz 05Feb 28BL
League Table
Bundesliga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44-51 | 31 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen Conference League Qualification | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 60-41 | 52 |
21pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
2W · 0D · 3WL2-0Bayer Leverkusenv1. FC KölnDec 13, 2025BL
L3-2Bayer Leverkusenv1. FC KölnFeb 5, 2025DFB
W0-21. FC KölnvBayer LeverkusenMar 3, 2024BL
L3-0Bayer Leverkusenv1. FC KölnOct 8, 2023BL
W1-2Bayer Leverkusenv1. FC KölnMay 5, 2023BL
Bayer Leverkusen: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg