La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Real Madrid2Alaves1

HT 1–0Tue 21 Apr 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–2–180%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 24–19On targetOn target 8–5CornersCorners 9–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Apr 2026, 13:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Real Madrid are heavy favorites to win at home, but the betting value lies in over 2.5 goals and over 1.5 home goals rather than the moneyline itself; Alaves' extreme foul rate (16.1 per game) and the fixture's disciplinary history (2 reds in April 2025) create a secondary edge in high card markets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's dominant home record (81% win rate), Alaves' abysmal away form (19% win rate), and a perfect 5/5 H2H record create overwhelming evidence for a home win, even accounting for Real Madrid's recent defensive wobbles in European competition.
- Real Madrid home La Liga record: 13W 1D 2L, 37GF/13GA (season 2025/26)
- Alaves away La Liga record: 3W 3D 10L, 16GF/28GA (season 2025/26)
- H2H: Real Madrid won all 5 last meetings (Dec 2023 – Dec 2025)
- Real Madrid 2nd (70 pts) vs Alaves 17th (33 pts), 37-point gap
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReal MadridEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's home goal difference (+1.5 per game) combined with Alaves' away weakness (-0.75 per game) and league form/stakes convergence suggests a win by 2+ goals is more likely than not, though Alaves' relegation desperation could keep it tight.
- Real Madrid home record: 2.31 GF vs 0.81 GA — net margin of +1.5 per home game
- Alaves away: 1.0 GF vs 1.75 GA — net margin of -0.75 per away game
- H2H: Real Madrid won by 2+ goals in 2 of last 5 meetings (5-0, 3-2 counted as +1)
- Real Madrid league form DLWWW shows strong recent domestic momentum
BetBugs · Handicap ResultpushReal Madrid -1Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The convergence of Real Madrid's near-impregnable home record, Alaves' woeful away win rate, and a perfect H2H record for RM makes an Alaves win extraordinarily unlikely — the combined non-loss probability for Real Madrid at home is overwhelming.
- Real Madrid home: 13W 1D 2L = 87.5% home non-loss rate (La Liga 2025/26)
- Alaves away: 3W from 16 matches = 18.75% away win rate
- H2H: Alaves have not beaten Real Madrid in last 5 meetings (all RM wins)
- Real Madrid 2nd in La Liga, Alaves 17th — massive quality gap
BetBugs · Double ChancewonReal Madrid or DrawEstimated chance93%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in open, high-scoring phases with every single match in their last 5 producing 3+ goals; combined with Real Madrid's potent home attack (37 goals in 16 home games) and Alaves conceding 1.75 per away game, over 2.5 is strongly supported.
- Real Madrid last 5 matches all had 3+ total goals (avg 3.4 goals/game)
- Alaves last 5 matches all had 3+ total goals (avg 5.2 goals/game)
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2-1, 1-0, 3-2 — 2 of 3 over 2.5
- Real Madrid home avg: 2.31 GF + 0.81 GA = 3.12 goals/game at home this season
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's recent defensive vulnerability (1.5 GA per game in last 10) and Alaves' recent scoring form (scored in every one of last 5) suggest BTTS is probable, though RM's home defensive record is better than their overall average and H2H shows Alaves blanked in 2 of 5.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of last 5 matches (last 10 avg: 1.5 goals conceded)
- Alaves scored in 5 of last 5 matches (avg 2.4 goals scored recently)
- H2H: Alaves scored in 3 of last 5 meetings vs Real Madrid
- Real Madrid home clean sheet rate: 13 GA in 16 home games (0.81/game)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's prolific home scoring (2.31 per game) against Alaves' porous away defense (1.75 GA per away game), combined with RM's high shot volume, makes 2+ home goals highly probable.
- Real Madrid scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home La Liga matches (37 goals in 16 home games = 2.31/game)
- Alaves concede 1.75 goals per away game this season (28 GA in 16 away matches)
- H2H: Real Madrid scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 meetings (5-0, 3-2, 2-1)
- Real Madrid average 15.8 shots and 6.9 on target per game (last 10)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonReal Madrid over 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half goals averages of 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded across both teams, with 9 of 10 recent matches for both teams featuring first-half goals, makes at least one goal before halftime highly likely.
- Real Madrid's first-half goal average: 1.0 scored + 0.8 conceded (last 10 matches)
- Alaves' first-half goal average: 0.9 scored + 0.9 conceded (last 10 matches)
- Alaves last 5: all had first-half goals (2-2, 1-1, 1-3, 1-0, 1-0 at HT)
- Real Madrid last 5: 4 of 5 had first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's recent defensive form (conceding in 80% of last 5 matches) and Alaves' current scoring streak, along with Alaves' relegation-driven desperation, slightly favors Alaves finding the net despite Real Madrid's stronger home defensive record.
- Real Madrid conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
- Real Madrid last 10 avg: 1.5 goals conceded per game
- Alaves scored in all 5 of their most recent matches (avg 2.4 GF)
- H2H: Alaves scored in 3 of last 5 meetings vs Real Madrid
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlaves to scoreEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' extremely high foul rate (16.1/game) and card averages (3.1 yellows + 0.5 reds), combined with the confirmed disciplinary volatility in this specific H2H fixture, strongly supports a high card count.
- Alaves average 3.1 yellow cards + 0.5 red cards per game (last 10 matches)
- Real Madrid average 2.1 yellows per game (last 10 matches), with 1 red card avg
- H2H Apr 2025: 2 red cards issued in a single meeting (Mbappe + Sanchez)
- Alaves commit 16.1 fouls/game — highest in the dataset — driving card accumulation
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' persistent fouling habit (16.1 fouls/game) against Real Madrid's attacking quality at home will force defensive fouls, and Alaves' card average of 3.1+ yellows per game makes over 2.5 cards for the away side very likely.
- Alaves average 3.1 yellow cards per game across last 10 matches
- Alaves committed 16.1 fouls per game on average (last 10 matches)
- In last 5 Alaves matches: card counts of 4, 2, 2, 4, 6 yellows (avg 3.6)
- Alaves received 6 yellows + 2 reds at Valencia away and 4 yellows at Real Sociedad away
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostAlaves over 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages of 10.1 and Real Madrid's tendency to dominate possession at home (generating more attacks and corners) support an expectation of 9+ total corners, though Alaves' low away possession may limit their corner opportunities.
- Real Madrid average 5.6 corners per game (last 10 matches)
- Alaves average 4.5 corners per game (last 10 matches)
- Combined average: 10.1 corners per game
- Real Madrid at home generated 10 corners vs Girona; Alaves had 5-9 corners range in recent away matches
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

5W · 0D · 0W

W1-2AlavesvReal MadridDec 14, 2025LL

W0-1AlavesvReal MadridApr 13, 2025LL

W3-2Real MadridvAlavesSep 24, 2024LL

W5-0Real MadridvAlavesMay 14, 2024LL

W0-1AlavesvReal MadridDec 21, 2023LL

Real Madrid unbeaten in 5 meetingsReal Madrid: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Real Madrid Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	31	22	4	5	65-29	70	DLWWW
17	Alaves	31	8	9	14	35-46	33	DDWDL

37pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Real Madrid

L3-4Bayern MünchenApr 15UEF

D1-1GironaApr 10LL

L1-2Bayern MünchenApr 7UEF

L1-2MallorcaApr 4LL

W3-2Atletico MadridMar 22LL

W2-1Manchester CityMar 17UEF

W4-1ElcheMar 14LL

W3-0Manchester CityMar 11UEF

W2-1Celta VigoMar 6LL

L0-1GetafeMar 2LL

Alaves

D3-3Real SociedadApr 11LL

D2-2OsasunaApr 5LL

W4-3Celta VigoMar 22LL

D1-1VillarrealMar 13LL

L2-3ValenciaMar 8LL

L0-2LevanteFeb 27LL

D2-2GironaFeb 23LL

D1-1SevillaFeb 14LL

L0-2GetafeFeb 8LL

L2-3Real SociedadFeb 4CDR

Squad & Injuries

Real Madrid

41 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders16

Goalkeeper5

Alaves

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Real Madrid2Alaves1

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Alaves under 3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 2 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Real Madrid

Alaves

Squad & Injuries

Real Madrid

Alaves