Universitatea Craiova - Rapid Bucharest

🇷🇴 Liga ILive

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 18:00

Pe scurt

Craiova's must-win desperation after a 0-4 humiliation, combined with an elite home record (11W-3D-1L) and dominant H2H history (8W-3D-2L), creates a significant edge—especially for BTTS at 62% probability versus 53.2% market pricing.

Both Teams to ScoreYes62%+9.0pp

Semnale de context

Craiova only 1 home league loss all season (11W 3D 1L across 15 home games)

HIGHStatistici

Craiova's elite home record combined with Rapid's weak playoff away sample and Craiova's must-win incentive makes a Rapid away win statistically the least likely outcome.

•Craiova only 1 home league loss all season (11W 3D 1L across 15 home games)
•Rapid 0W in their single playoff away fixture; season away 8W 4D 3W is decent but step up in opposition
•Last 5 H2H at Craiova venue: intel notes Rapid rarely win at Ion Oblemenco

Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 produced BTTS (1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0) — only the 1-0 from Jan...

MEDIUMStatistici

Strong H2H pattern of both teams scoring plus both sides' recent scoring and conceding rates support BTTS, reinforced by the high-scoring H2H tendency flagged in intel.

•Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 produced BTTS (1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-0) — only the 1-0 from Jan 2025 was a clean sheet
•Rapid scored in 4 of last 5 league games; Craiova scored in 3 of last 5 and concede 1.0 per game on average
•Craiova averages 1.3 goals for and 1.0 against over last 10; Rapid 1.2 for and 1.3 against

Craiova average 2.3 yellows per last 10, Rapid 2.6 yellows per last 10 (combined...

MEDIUMStatistici

Combined yellow averages exceed 4.5, and the high-stakes title-race context plus rivalry tension (intel cites controversy around Cup regulation changes) support an over-cards lean.

•Craiova average 2.3 yellows per last 10, Rapid 2.6 yellows per last 10 (combined ~4.9)
•Craiova have shown 1 red card in last 10; Rapid 0 — high-foul environment (Craiova fouls 11.8, Rapid 11.1)
•Referee Szabolcs Kovacs flagged by intel as senior referee for a high-stakes match with rivalry tension

Rapid scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings vs Craiova (2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-1)

MEDIUMStatistici

Rapid's consistent scoring in H2H and strong away goal-scoring record across the season make a Craiova clean sheet unlikely.

•Rapid scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings vs Craiova (2-2, 2-1, 2-1, 1-1)
•Rapid season away goals for: 21 in 15 games (1.4/game)
•Craiova last 10 have only 2 clean sheets (vs CFR and vs Dinamo away)

Craiova last-10 average shots on target: 4.4

MEDIUMStatistici

Combined shots-on-target averages exceed the 7.5 line, supported by both sides generating healthy shot volume in recent games.

•Craiova last-10 average shots on target: 4.4
•Rapid last-10 average shots on target: 3.7
•Combined baseline ~8.1 SoT per match; Craiova registered 9 SoT in last outing vs Univ. Cluj

Oportunități de pariuri

Implied: 53.2% → Our estimate: 62% → Edge: +9pts

•H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings both teams scored
•Rapid scored in 3 of last 5 H2H vs Craiova
•Craiova concede 1.0 goals/game, Rapid avg 1.2 goals away

Probabilități model

Double ChanceHome or Draw (1X)78%Ridicată

Craiova's elite home record combined with Rapid's weak playoff away sample and Craiova's must-win incentive makes a Rapid away win statistically the least likely outcome.

Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică

Both Teams to ScoreYes62%Medie

Strong H2H pattern of both teams scoring plus both sides' recent scoring and conceding rates support BTTS, reinforced by the high-scoring H2H tendency flagged in intel.