Nottingham Forest - Burnley
Pe scurt
**First-half draw at 2.38 offers the clearest value** (55% model vs. 42% implied, +13 points), backed by both teams' chronic low output in opening periods and a three-in-five H2H pattern of level breaks.
Semnale de context
1st Half Result — Draw
HIGHPiațăForest's extremely low first-half scoring output (0.6 goals/game at home) combined with their rare early leads (20% at HT) and Burnley's early weakness (trailing 60% of halves) creates a structural setup for first-half stalemates. H2H pattern reinforces this: 3 of the last 5 meetings had level scores at the break.
- •Forest lead at HT in only 20% of last 10 home matches
- •Burnley trail at HT in 60% of last 10 away matches
- •H2H: 3 of last 5 games level at half-time
1st Half Goals Over/Under — Under 1.5
MEDIUMPiațăBoth teams' combined first-half goal expectation (~1.1-1.2) sits well below the 1.5 threshold; Forest's defensive low-possession setup at home and Burnley's chronically poor early threat (0.5 goals/game first half) support a cagey opening.
- •Forest avg 0.6 first-half GF and 0.6 first-half GA (last 10)
- •Burnley avg 0.5 first-half goals (last 10)
- •H2H: 3/5 recent meetings had ≤1 first-half goal
Corners Over/Under — Under 9.5
MEDIUMPiațăForest (5.1) and Burnley (4.9) combined averaging ~10.0 corners favors the under at 9.5; H2H pattern of tight results supports suppressed corner counts.
- •Combined avg 10.0 corners/game over last 10 matches
- •Burnley's away possessions typically <45%, limiting corner generation
- •Recent H2H: 1-1, 1-2, 1-1, 0-1 — low-margin outcomes correlate with fewer corners
Oportunități de pariuri
Implied: 47.6% → Our estimate: 53% → Edge: +5.4pts
- •Combined avg 10.0 corners/game over last 10 matches
- •Burnley's away possessions typically <45%, limiting corner generation
- •Recent H2H: 1-1, 1-2, 1-1, 0-1 — low-margin outcomes correlate with fewer corners
Implied: 67.6% → Our estimate: 72% → Edge: +4.4pts
- •Forest avg 0.6 first-half GF and 0.6 first-half GA (last 10)
- •Burnley avg 0.5 first-half goals (last 10)
- •H2H: 3/5 recent meetings had ≤1 first-half goal
Implied: 42% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +13pts
- •Forest lead at HT in only 20% of last 10 home matches
- •Burnley trail at HT in 60% of last 10 away matches
- •H2H: 3 of last 5 games level at half-time
Probabilități model
Burnley's 12.5% away win rate combined with depleted squad and near-zero motivation against a team fighting relegation makes a Burnley away victory extremely unlikely.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
Both teams' first-half averages are very low (combined ~1.1-1.2), and Forest's defensive, low-possession home approach makes early goals scarce.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
With both teams averaging around 5 corners and Burnley's away possessions typically low, the combined corner count should hover around 10, marginally favoring the under.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
Forest's slow-starting, counter-attacking approach combined with H2H patterns of tight first halves strongly supports a 0-0 or level first-half scoreline.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
The combined foul rate (~21.6/game) and Burnley's high card average (2.2 yellows + 0.5 reds) in a relegation-pressure match create a likely environment for 4+ total cards.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
The H2H pattern of tight, low-scoring encounters and Forest's low-scoring home record (0.875 GF/game) point toward a cagey contest despite Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities away from home.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
Burnley's anaemic attack (missing Amdouni), low shot volume (3.3 SOT/game), and Forest's improving defensive structure under Pereira make a Burnley blank plausible, though not certain given Forest's own defensive injuries.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
The massive motivation asymmetry (survival vs effective relegation), Burnley's catastrophic away record, and significant Burnley injuries create a clear home-win lean despite Forest's own poor home form (3W in 16).
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Forest's desperation and Burnley's woeful away form edge the probability toward a home win, but Forest's own poor home conversion rate (only 3 home wins in 16) and H2H tightness limit confidence significantly.
Calitate semnal: Scăzută · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Burnley's dire attacking output (blanked in 3/5 recent games), missing forward Amdouni, and minimal shot quality support a reasonable probability of a clean sheet for Forest.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Piețe de evitat
Formă recentă
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Clasament
Premier League 2025/2026| # | Echipă | M | V | E | Î | GF-GA | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 32-44 | 33 |
| 19 | Burnley Relegation - Championship | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 33-63 | 20 |