Ligue 1Full time

Predictions graded

Monaco2Auxerre2

HT 0–2Sun 19 Apr 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 69%–31%ShotsShots 15–12On targetOn target 6–7CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Apr 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Monaco are dominant home favourites with HIGH-confidence edges on both the match result (~65% probability) and Over 1.5 Monaco goals (72% vs 63.7% implied at 1.57 odds, +8.3 points value).

A secondary opportunity exists in Over 5.5 cards (62% vs 40% implied, 2.50 odds, +22 points edge) due to Auxerre's elevated disciplinary profile, but avoid both-teams-to-score and -1.5 margin plays given Monaco's four missing defenders and Auxerre's negligible away attacking threat.

Context

Monaco have lost only 4 of 15 home matches
- Auxerre winless in last 5 H2H meetings vs Monaco
Monaco scored 31 goals in 15 home games (2.07/game)
- Auxerre conceded in 8 of 14 away matches (failed to keep clean sheet 57%+)
Monaco scored 2+ goals in all 5 last H2H meetings
- Auxerre concede 1.57 goals/away game (22GA in 14 away matches)
Auxerre away record: 1W-5D-8L, 10GF-22GA in 14 away matches
- Monaco won all 5 last H2H meetings (14GF-6GA combined)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monaco's dominant home record, 4-game winning streak, perfect 5/5 H2H record, and Auxerre's dismal away form (1 win in 14) create a strong convergence of signals despite Monaco's defensive injury concerns.
- Monaco home record 2025/26: 10W-1D-4L, 31GF-20GA in 15 home matches
- Auxerre away record: 1W-5D-8L, 10GF-22GA in 14 away matches
- Monaco won all 5 last H2H meetings (14GF-6GA combined)
- Monaco on 4-match winning streak including PSG (3-1) and Lyon (2-1) away
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMonacoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Auxerre's single away win all season combined with their complete inability to beat Monaco in 5 consecutive meetings makes an Auxerre win extremely unlikely.
- Auxerre have won just 1 of 14 away Ligue 1 matches this season
- Monaco have lost only 4 of 15 home matches
- Auxerre winless in last 5 H2H meetings vs Monaco
- Auxerre recent away form: DDWLD with 0.9 goals/game average overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMonaco or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monaco's H2H dominance (3/5 by 2+ goals) and the combined home/away GD splits suggest a comfortable win is plausible, but their significant defensive absences create enough uncertainty to keep this at a near-coinflip probability.
- 3 of 5 H2H meetings won by 2+ goal margin by Monaco (4-2, 3-0, 3-2)
- Monaco home GD: +11 in 15 matches (+0.73/game)
- Auxerre away GD: -12 in 14 matches (-0.86/game)
- Monaco's 4 missing defenders temper the margin confidence
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostMonaco -1Estimated chance48%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern strongly supports high-scoring affairs (4.0 avg), Monaco's home matches produce 3.4 goals/game, and their significant defensive absentees could increase vulnerability, though Auxerre's low away scoring (0.71/game) provides a dampening effect.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 games had 3+ goals (avg 4.0 total goals per match)
- Monaco average 2.2 goals scored + 1.5 conceded = 3.7 total in last 10
- Monaco home: 31GF + 20GA in 15 home matches = 3.4/game
- Monaco missing 4+ defenders (Salisu, Ouattara, Caio Henrique, Vanderson) which may open up the game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H pattern strongly favors BTS (80% rate in last 5), and Monaco's depleted defense adds vulnerability, but Auxerre's terrible away attacking output (0.71/game, 2.8 SOT average) makes this a genuine coin-flip.
- 4 of 5 H2H meetings saw both teams score
- Monaco concede 1.33 goals/home game (20 in 15) and are missing 4 defenders
- Auxerre away: only 10 goals in 14 away matches (0.71/game)
- Auxerre had 0 shots on target in their last match vs Nantes
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance50%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monaco's home scoring rate (2.07/game), Auxerre's poor away defensive record (1.57 conceded/game), and the H2H pattern of Monaco scoring 2+ in every meeting strongly support Monaco finding the net multiple times.
- Monaco scored 31 goals in 15 home matches (2.07/game)
- Monaco scored 2+ goals in all 5 last H2H meetings
- Auxerre concede 1.57 goals/away game (22GA in 14 away matches)
- Monaco averaging 2.2 goals/game in recent form with 4.8 SOT/game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMonaco over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Monaco's prolific home scoring, Auxerre's leaky away defense, and the H2H record of Monaco scoring in every meeting makes an Auxerre clean sheet highly improbable.
- Monaco scored in all 5 last H2H meetings (14 total goals)
- Monaco scored 31 goals in 15 home games (2.07/game)
- Auxerre conceded in 8 of 14 away matches (failed to keep clean sheet 57%+)
- Auxerre concede 22 goals in 14 away games (1.57/game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMonaco to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency toward lower-scoring first halves with Auxerre especially drawing at the break in 70% of recent games, and Monaco's second-half comeback pattern (0.9 FH goals vs 2.2 total) suggesting the action tilts toward the second period.
- Monaco average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded (1.7 total FH goals/game)
- Auxerre average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded (1.1 total FH goals/game)
- Monaco were trailing or drawing at half-time in 60% of recent matches
- Auxerre were drawing at half-time in 70% of recent matches (only 20% leading, 10% trailing)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined foul rate (~25/game) and yellow card averages (3.8 combined) alongside Auxerre's notable disciplinary issues and relegation-pressure intensity suggest a card-heavy encounter.
- Auxerre average 13.8 fouls/game and 1.4 yellows + 1.0 red cards in last 10
- Monaco average 11.3 fouls/game and 2.4 yellows in last 10
- Combined yellow card average: 3.8/game from both teams in recent form
- Auxerre's elevated red card rate (1.0 avg in last 10) suggests persistent discipline issues
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages sit right around the 8.5 line; Monaco's varied corner counts (0 to 11 in recent games) create high variance, making this a low-confidence call despite a slight lean to the over based on raw averages.
- Monaco average 4.4 corners + opponents average ~5.2 corners in recent matches
- Auxerre average 4.6 corners + opponents average ~4.6 corners in recent matches
- Monaco's last match featured 12 combined corners (11+1 at Paris FC)
- Combined baseline estimate: ~9.3 corners per match from both team averages
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

5W · 0D · 0W

W1-2AuxerrevMonacoDec 21, 2025CDF

W1-2AuxerrevMonacoSep 13, 2025L1

W4-2MonacovAuxerreFeb 1, 2025L1

W0-3AuxerrevMonacoSep 14, 2024L1

W3-2MonacovAuxerreFeb 1, 2023L1

Monaco unbeaten in 5 meetings4 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Monaco	29	15	4	10	50-43	49	LWWWW
16	Auxerre Relegation Playoffs	29	5	9	15	23-37	24	DDWLD

25pt gap between teamsAuxerre in relegation zone

Recent Form

Monaco

L1-4Paris FCApr 10L1

W2-1MarseilleApr 5L1

W2-1LyonMar 22L1

W2-0Stade Brestois 29Mar 14L1

W3-1Paris Saint GermainMar 6L1

W2-0AngersFeb 28L1

D2-2Paris Saint GermainFeb 25UEF

W3-2LensFeb 21L1

L2-3Paris Saint GermainFeb 17UEF

W3-1NantesFeb 13L1

Auxerre

D0-0NantesApr 11L1

D1-1Le HavreApr 5L1

W3-0Stade Brestois 29Mar 21L1

L0-1MarseilleMar 13L1

D0-0StrasbourgMar 7L1

D2-2LorientMar 1L1

L0-3RennesFeb 22L1

W3-1MetzFeb 15L1

D0-0Paris FCFeb 8L1

D0-0ToulouseFeb 1L1

Squad & Injuries

Monaco

18 out

Attackers4/6

×#29

×#8

×#29

×#8

Midfielders6/12

×#15

×#17

×#10

×#15

×#17

×#10

Defenders8/10

×#12

×#20

×#22

×#2

×#12

×#20

×#22

×#2

Goalkeeper4

#29 P. Brunner — Injury

#12 Caio Henrique — Thigh Injury

#15 L. Camara — Yellow Cards

#17 S. Idumbo — Injury

#8 T. Minamino — Knee Injury

#20 K. Ouattara — Knee Injury

#22 M. Salisu — Knee Injury

#2 Vanderson — Thigh Injury

#10 A. Golovin — Muscle Injury

#29 P. Brunner — Injury

#12 Caio Henrique — Thigh Injury

#15 L. Camara — Yellow Cards

#17 S. Idumbo — Injury

#8 T. Minamino — Knee Injury

#20 K. Ouattara — Knee Injury

#22 M. Salisu — Knee Injury

#2 Vanderson — Thigh Injury

#10 A. Golovin — Muscle Injury

Auxerre

10 out

Attackers6

Midfielders6/10

×#21

×#36

×#17

×#21

×#36

×#17

Defenders2/10

×#92

Goalkeeper4

N. Buayi-Kiala — Knee Injury

#21 L. Coulibaly — Injury

#36 T. Devernois — Calf Injury

#17 O. El Azzouzi — Knee Injury

#92 C. Akpa — Injury

N. Buayi-Kiala — Knee Injury

#21 L. Coulibaly — Injury

#36 T. Devernois — Calf Injury

#17 O. El Azzouzi — Knee Injury

#92 C. Akpa — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

Over 5.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Monaco

Auxerre

Squad & Injuries

Monaco

Auxerre