Metz vs Paris FC: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Metz's catastrophic home record (2W in 14) and worst-in-league defensive record give PFC a clear edge despite their own away inconsistencies, though PFC's high draw rate (47% away) tempers confidence.
- Metz are 18th with 15 pts, form LDDLL (last 5), 2W-4D-8L at home this season
- Paris FC away: 3W-7D-5L, form WDWDD (last 5), scoring 1.1 goals/match (last 10)
- Metz concede 1.8 goals/match (last 10) and 23 goals in 14 home games
- PFC beat Monaco 4-1 and Le Havre 3-2 in their last 5 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonParis FCEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Metz's inability to win at home (14% rate) combined with their league-worst attack (0.5 goals/match last 10) makes a Metz victory highly unlikely despite relegation desperation, which has not translated into improved results under new coach Tavenot.
- Metz have won just 2 of 14 home matches (14% win rate) this season
- Metz overall: 3W-6D-20L in 29 league matches, worst in Ligue 1
- Paris FC unbeaten in last 5 (WDWDD), 7 draws in 15 away matches
- Metz score just 0.5 goals/match (last 10), limiting their winning potential
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Paris FCEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The stark first-half disparity — Metz trailing at HT 60% of the time while PFC lead 40% — combined with Metz's 0.2 FH goals vs PFC's 0.7 creates a strong structural edge for PFC to lead at the break.
- Metz trail at half-time in 60% of recent matches (last 10), score just 0.2 FH goals
- Paris FC lead at half-time in 40% of recent matches, score 0.7 FH goals
- Metz concede 0.9 first-half goals on average (last 10)
- PFC scored 3 first-half goals vs Monaco and 2 vs Le Havre in recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostParis FCEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Metz's porous defense (worst in Ligue 1 with 63 goals conceded) and H2H trend of high-scoring meetings make Over 2.5 a near coin-flip, slightly favored by the structural defensive weakness of the home side.
- H2H last 5 average 3.4 goals per match; 4 of 5 meetings had 3+ goals
- Metz concede 1.8 goals/match (last 10); season total 63 conceded in 29 matches (2.17/match)
- Combined average goals (last 10): Metz 0.5 + PFC 1.1 + Metz concede 1.8 + PFC concede 1.3 = ~2.8-3.1 expected
- Metz vs Toulouse was 3-4; most Metz matches feature goals against them
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While H2H historically favors BTTS, Metz's current goal drought (0 goals in 4 of last 5 matches, 0.5 avg) combined with PFC's significant attacking absences creates a real possibility of one side blanking, with Metz the more likely to fail.
- Metz scored 0 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches and average 0.5 goals/match (last 10)
- Metz have just 2.9 shots on target per match (last 10)
- Paris FC missing key attackers Krasso (knee) and Hamel (calf), plus Cafaro/Lopez questionable
- H2H showed BTTS in 3/5 meetings, but Metz's current form is far worse than in those meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Metz's extreme goal-scoring struggles (blanked in 4 of last 5) give PFC a reasonable chance of a clean sheet, though PFC's own defensive record (1.33 GA away) prevents this from being high confidence.
- Metz scored 0 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (0, 0, 3, 0, 0 pattern)
- Metz average just 0.5 goals/match and 2.9 SOT (last 10)
- Metz score 0.93 goals/match at home this season (13 in 14 home games)
- PFC concede 1.3 goals/match (last 10) — not watertight but Metz create little
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostMetz not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Metz's tendency to concede early (0.9 FH goals against, trailing at HT 60%) combined with PFC's first-half scoring (0.7 avg) makes at least one first-half goal highly probable.
- Combined first-half goals average: Metz 0.2 + PFC 0.7 + Metz concede 0.9 FH + PFC concede 0.3 FH
- Metz trailed at HT in 60% of last 10 matches — implying at least 1 FH goal in most games
- Only 2 of Metz's last 5 matches were 0-0 at HT (vs Nantes, vs Rennes)
- PFC's last 5: 3 matches had first-half goals (3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 HT scores)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Metz's leaky defense (worst in league, 63 GA in 29 matches) should provide PFC with chances to score multiple goals, though PFC's away scoring average of 1.0/match and key attacking absences (Krasso, Hamel) introduce uncertainty.
- Metz concede 1.8 goals/match (last 10) and 1.64 goals/home match this season (23 in 14)
- PFC score 1.1 goals/match (last 10) and 1.0 away goals/match this season (15 in 15)
- PFC scored 4 vs Monaco and 3 vs Le Havre in their last 4 matches
- H2H: PFC scored 2+ goals in 3 of last 5 meetings against Metz
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonParis FC over 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow card averages of 4.2 (Metz 1.9 + PFC 2.3) plus PFC's remarkably high red card rate (1.0/match) and high combined fouls (22.8) suggest this match will comfortably exceed 3.5 total cards.
- Metz average 1.9 yellows + opponents avg ~1.3 = ~3.2 yellows in Metz matches (last 10)
- PFC average 2.3 yellows/match (last 10) and have 1.0 red cards/match average
- Metz average 12.7 fouls/match, PFC 10.1 — combined 22.8 fouls typical
- Relegation pressure matches tend to feature more tactical fouling and friction
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging modest corner counts and neither dominating possession, the combined corner total projects around 8-9, making Under 10.5 the more likely outcome.
- Metz average 4.1 corners/match, PFC average 4.4 — combined 8.5
- Metz's opponents average ~5.6 corners; PFC's opponents average ~8.2 corners
- Both teams have low possession (~45-48%), reducing sustained attacking pressure
- Last 5 Metz matches: corner counts of 4, 6, 2, 4, 4 (avg 4.0 for Metz alone)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Metz1Paris FC3

Quick Take

Context

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Under 9.5

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Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

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Metz

Paris FC

Squad & Injuries

Metz

Paris FC

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Metz Relegation	29	3	6	20	26-63	15	LDDLL
12	Paris FC	29	8	11	10	37-45	35	WDWDD