Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Juventus2Bologna0

HT 1–0Sun 19 Apr 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 14–7On targetOn target 4–0CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Apr 2026, 16:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventus are home favorites with a 15-year H2H dominance and 9-6-1 home record, but the loss of both Vlahovic and Milik severely limits their finishing—expect a low-scoring, defensive-first match with a drawn first half (2.40, +16pts edge) and over 2.5 Bologna cards (1.91, +10.6pts edge) as key plays; avoid the overpriced Match Winner outright.

Context

Juventus lost only 1 of 16 home league matches this season (W9 D6 L1)
- Last 5 H2H: 1 Juventus win, 4 draws, 0 Bologna wins
Bologna first-half goals average: 0.4; first-half goals conceded: 0.4 (last 10)
- Combined first-half goal expectation: ~1.0 goals total
Bologna leading at HT in 30% of recent matches; trailing in 20%
- Last 5 H2H: HT results include multiple 0-0 draws at the break
Bologna commit 13.4 fouls/game — among the highest in their recent sample
- Bologna received 3 yellows + 1 red vs Cremonese; 2 yellows vs Aston Villa (home leg)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juve's outstanding home record and H2H dominance over Bologna make them clear favorites, but the loss of both Vlahovic and Milik significantly reduces their finishing power, keeping the probability below 50% as draws remain highly plausible per the H2H pattern.
- Juventus home record 2025/26: W9 D6 L1, 32 GF / 13 GA in 16 matches
- Bologna have not beaten Juventus in Serie A since Feb 2011; last 5 H2H: 1 Juve win, 4 draws
- Juventus on WWDWW form (last 5); Bologna WWLWL with 0-4 Europa League loss most recent
- Vlahovic and Milik both confirmed out — Juve lose primary striking options
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuventusEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The 15+ year drought for Bologna winning this fixture combined with Juventus' near-impregnable home record (1 loss in 16) makes a Juventus-or-draw outcome highly likely, supported by all five Core signals pointing against a Bologna win.
- Bologna last beat Juventus in Serie A in February 2011 — over 15 years without a win
- Juventus lost only 1 of 16 home league matches this season (W9 D6 L1)
- Last 5 H2H: 1 Juventus win, 4 draws, 0 Bologna wins
- Bologna away form decent (W8 D4 L4) but struggles against top-half opposition
BetBugs · Double ChancewonJuventus or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring from both sides and the H2H pattern of goalless first halves, combined with Juve's missing strikers likely delaying goal production, strongly supports a drawn first half as the most probable outcome.
- Juventus leading at HT in 40% of recent matches; trailing in 30%
- Bologna leading at HT in 30% of recent matches; trailing in 20%
- Last 5 H2H: HT results include multiple 0-0 draws at the break
- Combined first-half goals expectation: ~1.0 (0.7 Juve + 0.4 Bologna - adjusted for context)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance58%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juve's missing strikers severely limit their attacking output while Bologna's poor shot conversion (3.8 SOT/game for just 1.0 goals) and Juve's tight home defense (0.81 GA/game) point toward a lower-scoring affair, though H2H history of 3.2 goals/game adds upside variance.
- Juventus home GA: 0.81/game (13 in 16); Bologna recent goal average: 1.0/game (last 10)
- Vlahovic and Milik both out — Juve's top two strikers missing
- Last H2H (Dec 2025): ended 0-1; the meeting before was 1-1
- Bologna shots on target average: only 3.8 per game in recent form
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juve's recent defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5 games) and their strong home defensive record combine with Bologna's limited goal output to give a slight lean toward at least one team failing to score, though the H2H pattern of both teams scoring (4 of last 5) tempers confidence.
- Juventus kept clean sheets in 3 of last 5 matches (vs Atalanta 1-0, Genoa 2-0, Pisa 4-0)
- Juventus home GA: 13 in 16 games (0.81/game); multiple home clean sheets this season
- Bologna scored 0 in their last away match (0-4 vs Aston Villa) and 0 vs Lazio at home
- Bologna averaging only 1.0 goals/game in last 10 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Juve's strong recent defensive record (3 clean sheets in 5) and Bologna's scoring struggles provide reasonable clean sheet probability, but Bologna's solid away record (26 goals in 16 away games) and H2H patterns of both teams scoring limit confidence.
- Juventus kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches (vs Atalanta, Genoa, Pisa)
- Juventus home GA: 0.81/game across 16 league home matches this season
- Bologna scoring only 1.0 goals/game in recent 10-match form
- Bologna failed to score in 3 of last 10 matches (0-4 Villa, 0-2 Lazio, 0-1 at Juve in Dec)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBologna not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The confirmed absence of both Vlahovic and Milik — Juventus' only recognized strikers — creates a genuine conversion problem; recent matches already show Juve scoring just 1 goal in 3 of 5 games even with Vlahovic available, making under 1.5 Juventus goals a coin-flip lean.
- Vlahovic (primary striker) and Milik (backup striker) both confirmed out; Yildiz questionable with knee injury
- Juventus scored 0-1 goals in 3 of last 5 league matches (1-0 vs Atalanta, 1-1 vs Sassuolo, 1-0 vs Udinese)
- Juventus season home average: 2.0 goals/game, but last 5 includes the 4-0 vs Pisa inflating it
- First half goals average for Juve: only 0.7 per game in recent form
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostJuventus under 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show low first-half scoring output (combined ~1.0 expected first-half goals), reinforced by H2H patterns where half-time was 0-0 in multiple recent meetings, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong statistical proposition.
- Juventus first-half goals average: 0.7; first-half goals conceded: 0.5 (last 10)
- Bologna first-half goals average: 0.4; first-half goals conceded: 0.4 (last 10)
- Combined first-half goal expectation: ~1.0 goals total
- Last H2H (Dec 2025): HT was 0-0; Aug 2023 H2H: HT also 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's away matches have produced modest corner totals (6 in their last two away games combined with opponents), and while Juve can generate corners at home, the average sits close to the 9.5 line with a slight lean under given Bologna's away suppression.
- Juventus averaging 4.8 corners in last 10; Bologna averaging 5.3 corners in last 10
- Juve's last 3 home matches: 5+5=10 (vs Genoa), 9+4=13 (vs Sassuolo), 4+4=8 (vs Pisa)
- Combined average from recent form: ~10.1 total corners, but several matches fell under 9.5
- Bologna's last away corner counts: 2+4=6 (Villa), 4+2=6 (Cremonese)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's high foul rate (13.4/game) and propensity for cards (2.3 cards/game including reds) combined with Juventus' own 1.6 yellows/game pushes the combined card expectation to approximately 3.9, comfortably favoring over 3.5 in a competitive Serie A fixture.
- Bologna averaging 1.8 yellows + 0.5 reds per game (last 10); 13.4 fouls/game
- Juventus averaging 1.6 yellows per game (last 10); 10.6 fouls/game
- Combined average: ~3.4 yellows + ~0.5 reds = ~3.9 cards per game from recent form
- Bologna's recent matches: 3 yellows+1 red vs Cremonese; high-foul games consistently
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's high foul rate and card average (2.3 cards/game) in an away fixture against a motivated Juventus side pushing for Champions League qualification makes over 1.5 Bologna cards a statistically supported outcome.
- Bologna averaging 1.8 yellows + 0.5 reds = 2.3 cards/game in last 10 matches
- Bologna commit 13.4 fouls/game — among the highest in their recent sample
- Bologna received 3 yellows + 1 red vs Cremonese; 2 yellows vs Aston Villa (home leg)
- Playing away at a top-4 side chasing CL places increases defensive pressure and foul risk
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostBologna over 1.5Estimated chance63%

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

W0-1BolognavJuventusDec 14, 2025SA

D1-1BolognavJuventusMay 4, 2025SA

D2-2JuventusvBolognaDec 7, 2024SA

D3-3BolognavJuventusMay 20, 2024SA

D1-1JuventusvBolognaAug 27, 2023SA

Juventus unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Juventus Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	32	17	9	6	55-29	60	WWDWW
8	Bologna	32	14	6	12	42-37	48	WWLWL

12pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Juventus

W1-0AtalantaApr 11SA

W2-0GenoaApr 6SA

D1-1SassuoloMar 21SA

W1-0UdineseMar 14SA

W4-0PisaMar 7SA

D3-3AS RomaMar 1SA

L0-2ComoFeb 21SA

L2-5GalatasarayFeb 17UEF

L2-3InterFeb 14SA

D2-2LazioFeb 8SA

Bologna

L0-4Aston VillaApr 16UEF

W2-0LecceApr 12SA

L1-3Aston VillaApr 9UEF

W2-1CremoneseApr 5SA

L0-2LazioMar 22SA

W1-0SassuoloMar 15SA

D1-1AS RomaMar 12UEF

L1-2Hellas VeronaMar 8SA

W1-0PisaMar 2SA

W1-0BrannFeb 26UEF

Squad & Injuries

Juventus

10 out

Attackers6/9

×#14

×#9

×#10

×#14

×#9

×#10

Midfielders9

Defenders2/8

×#32

Goalkeeper2/8

×#1

#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury

#9 D. Vlahovic — Calf Injury

#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury

#1 M. Perin — Injury

#10 K. Yildiz — Knee Injury

#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury

#9 D. Vlahovic — Calf Injury

#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury

#1 M. Perin — Injury

#10 K. Yildiz — Knee Injury

Bologna

10 out

Attackers4/7

×#30

×#24

×#30

×#24

Midfielders8

Defenders2/13

×#16

Goalkeeper2/5

×#1

K. Bonifazi — Inactive

#30 B. Dominguez — Hip Injury

#16 N. Casale — Injury

#24 T. Dallinga — Injury

#1 L. Skorupski — Muscle Injury

K. Bonifazi — Inactive

#30 B. Dominguez — Hip Injury

#16 N. Casale — Injury

#24 T. Dallinga — Injury

#1 L. Skorupski — Muscle Injury

Juventus2Bologna0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

No

Over 10.5

Bologna Over 2.5

Juventus or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Juventus

Bologna

Squad & Injuries

Juventus

Bologna