Cremonese - Torino
Pe scurt
Torino unbeaten in four H2H meetings and facing a Cremonese side crippled by five key injuries (including both strikers) and plagued by 0.6 goals per match form; First Half Draw at 2.00 and Double Chance Torino/Draw at 1.43 both offer material edges over market pricing.
Semnale de context
1st Half Result — Draw
HIGHPiațăCremonese scored 0 FH goals in their last 10 matches while Torino leads at HT in only 20% of games; convergence of zero offensive threat at HT and Torino's cautious setup under new manager (7 weeks), plus 3 of 4 recent H2H meetings were drawn at HT.
- •Cremonese: 0 first-half goals in last 10 matches
- •Torino: Leading at HT in only 20% of last 10 matches
- •H2H: 3 of 4 recent meetings drawn at half-time
Double Chance — Draw or Torino
MEDIUMPiațăCremonese's catastrophic home record (2 wins in 15, 13% win rate) combined with injury crisis (5 key players missing), managerial uncertainty, and Torino's unbeaten H2H run (W2 D2) make a Cremonese home win highly unlikely despite 1.43 oddscomfortably pricing this at nearly 70%.
- •Cremonese home win rate: 2 of 15 (13.3%)
- •Torino unbeaten in last 4 H2H (W2 D2)
- •Cremonese missing 5 players (Vardy, Moumbagna, Collocolo, Maleh, Thorsby)
Oportunități de pariuri
Implied: 69.9% → Our estimate: 72% → Edge: +2.1pts
- •Cremonese home win rate: 2 of 15 (13.3%)
- •Torino unbeaten in last 4 H2H (W2 D2)
- •Cremonese missing 5 players (Vardy, Moumbagna, Collocolo, Maleh, Thorsby)
Implied: 50% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +5pts
- •Cremonese: 0 first-half goals in last 10 matches
- •Torino: Leading at HT in only 20% of last 10 matches
- •H2H: 3 of 4 recent meetings drawn at half-time
Probabilități model
Cremonese's dire home win rate, near-zero attacking output compounded by key injuries, and Torino's complete H2H dominance make a Cremonese win unlikely despite their desperation.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
The combined foul rate (~29.5 per match) and yellow card averages (~3.9 combined) from both sides, amplified by relegation desperation from Cremonese, strongly supports 4+ cards.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
The H2H pattern of low-scoring games combines with both teams losing primary attacking options to injury, and Cremonese's league-worst 0.6 GPG scoring rate makes a sub-3-goal total highly probable.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
Both teams are low-corner-generating sides with combined averages well below 10, and neither team dominates possession enough to sustain sustained attacking pressure for corner accumulation.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
Cremonese's extraordinary inability to score in first halves (0 in last 10 matches), Torino's modest 0.5 FH goals, and the H2H pattern of drawn half-times all strongly support a goalless first half.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
The convergence of Cremonese's zero first-half goals, Torino's low HT-leading rate, consistent H2H HT draws, and dual managerial caution strongly favors a level first half.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
Cremonese's skeletal attacking options and abysmal scoring rate create a strong chance of a home blank, especially given H2H precedent of Cremonese shutouts.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
Cremonese's skeletal attack — stripped of two forwards and a creative midfielder — combined with their dismal 0.6 GPG rate and zero first-half goals in 10 matches makes a home shutout a realistic outcome.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Torino's H2H dominance, relative quality advantage (12th vs 17th), and Cremonese's home futility and massive injury crisis give Torino a slight edge that supports a small Asian handicap line.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Torino's superior H2H dominance, Cremonese's catastrophic home record (2 wins in 15), and Cremonese's crippling midfield/attack absences all favor the visitors despite Torino's own mediocre away form.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
While Torino's away defensive record is poor overall (30 GA in 16), Cremonese's depleted attack and historically low output against Torino give a reasonable chance of an away clean sheet.
Calitate semnal: Scăzută · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Piețe de evitat
Formă recentă
Cremonese
Torino
Clasament
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Echipă | M | V | E | Î | GF-GA | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Cremonese | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26-47 | 27 |
| 12 | Torino | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 37-54 | 39 |