St Pauli - Cologne
Pe scurt
Cologne are heavy favorites despite playing away, backed by 5-game H2H unbeaten streak, St Pauli's catastrophic form (1 pt in 5, 0.7 goals/game), and 28.6% home win rate.
Semnale de context
Draw No Bet — Cologne
HIGHPiațăCologne unbeaten in last 5 H2H matchups and St Pauli's catastrophic form (LDLLD, 1 pt in 5) combined with missing 3 midfielders make an away victory or draw the overwhelming structural outcome.
- •Cologne 3W-2D in last 5 H2H vs St Pauli
- •St Pauli home record: 4W-4D-6L (28.6% win rate)
- •St Pauli form: LDLLD with 0.7 goals/match in last 10
Total Goals Away — Over 0.5 (Cologne)
MEDIUMPiațăCologne scored in all 5 recent H2H meetings and in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches; St Pauli concede 1.79 goals/game at home. HIGH confidence conviction overrides tight odds.
- •Cologne scored in all 5 H2H meetings (1, 4, 5, 4, 3 goals)
- •St Pauli concede 1.79 GA/game at home (25 GA in 14 matches)
- •Cologne 1.5 goals/game on average this season
Corners Over/Under — Under 9.5
MEDIUMPiațăCombined corners profile (St Pauli 3.3 + Cologne 5.4 = 8.7 avg) sits comfortably below 9.5; low-possession St Pauli (38.5% avg) generates minimal attacking corners, anchoring total downward despite Cologne's moderate away form.
- •St Pauli avg 3.3 corners in last 10 matches
- •Combined average 8.7 corners vs 9.5 line
- •St Pauli possession avg 38.5% (low-block style limits corners)
Oportunități de pariuri
Implied: 80.0% → Our estimate: 78% → Edge: -2pts
- •Cologne scored in all 5 H2H meetings (1, 4, 5, 4, 3 goals)
- •St Pauli concede 1.79 GA/game at home (25 GA in 14 matches)
- •Cologne 1.5 goals/game on average this season
Implied: 57.8% → Our estimate: 68% → Edge: +10.2pts
- •Cologne 3W-2D in last 5 H2H vs St Pauli
- •St Pauli home record: 4W-4D-6L (28.6% win rate)
- •St Pauli form: LDLLD with 0.7 goals/match in last 10
Implied: 51.3% → Our estimate: 60% → Edge: +8.7pts
- •St Pauli avg 3.3 corners in last 10 matches
- •Combined average 8.7 corners vs 9.5 line
- •St Pauli possession avg 38.5% (low-block style limits corners)
Probabilități model
Cologne's consistent scoring in recent form and every H2H meeting, combined with St Pauli's leaky home defense, makes a Cologne goal near-certain.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
St Pauli's defensive record is among the worst in the Bundesliga with 50 goals conceded, and Cologne have scored in every H2H meeting, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
St Pauli's weak home record, inability to score (worst GF in league at 25), and Cologne's H2H dominance make avoiding a St Pauli win the strongest structural play.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
Cologne's H2H dominance (unbeaten in 5), St Pauli's dire home win rate, and St Pauli's injury-depleted attack make it highly probable Cologne avoid defeat.
Calitate semnal: Ridicată · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare puternică
Both teams produce few first-half goals — St Pauli's 0.4 FH GF is particularly anemic — and the most recent H2H saw no first-half goals, supporting a cagey opening 45 minutes.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
St Pauli's very low corner count (3.3 avg) drags the combined total well below 10.5, and with their low-block possession style (38.5% avg), they generate minimal attacking corner situations.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
The combined card average of 3.8 sits above the 3.5 line, and Cologne's propensity for cards (2.3/game) combined with a high-stakes relegation context for St Pauli should produce enough fouls to generate 4+ bookings.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
St Pauli's low possession style (38.5%) severely limits shot volume, their average of 9.7 sits below the 10.5 line, and key attacking absences further diminish their ability to generate chances.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare
Both teams concede nearly 1.8 goals per game in their respective home/away splits, Cologne are missing two defenders, and the most recent H2H was 1-1, making mutual scoring likely despite St Pauli's general bluntness.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
Both defenses are porous (50 GA each in 29 games), and the H2H pattern overwhelmingly produces 3+ goal games (4 of last 5 meetings), supporting over 2.5 despite St Pauli's low scoring output.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Înclinare ușoară
Despite St Pauli's home relegation desperation, their abysmal form (1 pt in 5), major personnel losses in midfield/attack, and Cologne's dominant H2H record make an away win the most likely single outcome.
Calitate semnal: Medie · Bandă de incertitudine: Aproape coin-flip
Piețe de evitat
Formă recentă
St Pauli
Cologne
Clasament
Bundesliga 2025/2026| # | Echipă | M | V | E | Î | GF-GA | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | St Pauli Relegation Playoffs | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 25-50 | 25 |
| 13 | Cologne | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 43-50 | 30 |