BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

St Pauli1Cologne1

HT 0–0Fri 17 Apr 2026, 18:35 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges1–150%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 8–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Apr 2026, 17:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Cologne are heavy favorites despite playing away, backed by 5-game H2H unbeaten streak, St Pauli's catastrophic form (1 pt in 5, 0.7 goals/game), and 28.6% home win rate.

Draw No Bet Cologne @ 1.73 offers +10.2pt edge; Corners Under 9.5 @ 1.95 offers +8.7pt edge given St Pauli's low possession (38.5%) and corner generation (3.3 avg).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 0.8% · Market 0.8%

−2.0ppshort

Cologne scored in all 5 recent H2H meetings and in 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches; St Pauli concede 1.79 goals/game at home. HIGH confidence conviction overrides tight odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite St Pauli's home relegation desperation, their abysmal form (1 pt in 5), major personnel losses in midfield/attack, and Cologne's dominant H2H record make an away win the most likely single outcome.
- Cologne form WDDDL (8 pts from last 5) vs St Pauli LDLLD (1 pt from last 5)
- H2H: Cologne 7W-1L-3D in 11 meetings; St Pauli have never won in last 5 H2H
- St Pauli missing 3 midfielders + 1 attacker; scoring just 0.7 goals/match in last 10
- Cologne outscore St Pauli significantly this season: 43 GF vs 25 GF in 29 games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCologneEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's weak home record, inability to score (worst GF in league at 25), and Cologne's H2H dominance make avoiding a St Pauli win the strongest structural play.
- St Pauli home record: 4W-4D-6L this season (only 28.6% win rate at home)
- Cologne have drawn 5 of 14 away games (35.7%) and St Pauli drawn 4 of 14 home (28.6%)
- H2H last 5: Cologne 3 wins, 1 draw, St Pauli 0 wins — St Pauli have not beaten Cologne
- St Pauli's recent form is LDLLD with 0.7 goals/match average in last 10
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CologneEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cologne's H2H dominance (unbeaten in 5), St Pauli's dire home win rate, and St Pauli's injury-depleted attack make it highly probable Cologne avoid defeat.
- Cologne have not lost to St Pauli in last 5 H2H (3W-2D)
- St Pauli win rate at home: 28.6% (4W in 14 home games)
- Cologne form WDDDL (unbeaten in 4 of 5); St Pauli LDLLD (0 wins in 5)
- St Pauli missing 3 key players; only 0.7 goals/match in recent form
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonCologne +0.5Estimated chance68%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses are porous (50 GA each in 29 games), and the H2H pattern overwhelmingly produces 3+ goal games (4 of last 5 meetings), supporting over 2.5 despite St Pauli's low scoring output.
- Both teams concede 1.72 GA/game this season (50 GA each in 29 matches)
- Cologne's last 5 matches: 3-1, 2-2, 3-3, 1-1, 1-2 — 4 of 5 had 3+ goals
- H2H recent: 1-1, 4-1, 3-5, 4-0, 3-0 — 4 of 5 had 3+ goals
- Combined season rate: ~3.44 goals per game based on GF+GA averages
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede nearly 1.8 goals per game in their respective home/away splits, Cologne are missing two defenders, and the most recent H2H was 1-1, making mutual scoring likely despite St Pauli's general bluntness.
- Cologne concede 1.79 GA/game away (25 GA in 14 away matches) — vulnerable defensively on the road
- Cologne missing both Hubers and Kilian (defenders, knee injuries) weakens their backline
- St Pauli concede 1.79 GA/game at home (25 GA in 14 home matches)
- Last H2H (Dec 2025): ended 1-1; H2H 3 of last 5 saw both teams score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cologne's consistent scoring in recent form and every H2H meeting, combined with St Pauli's leaky home defense, makes a Cologne goal near-certain.
- Cologne scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (3, 2, 3, 1, 1 goals)
- Cologne have 15 goals in 14 away games this season (1.07/game)
- St Pauli concede 1.79 goals/match at home (25 GA in 14 home games)
- Cologne scored in all 5 H2H meetings (1, 4, 5, 4, 3 goals)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCologne over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's defensive record is among the worst in the Bundesliga with 50 goals conceded, and Cologne have scored in every H2H meeting, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.
- St Pauli kept clean sheet in only 1 of last 5 matches (0-0 vs Frankfurt)
- St Pauli concede 1.79 GA/game at home this season
- Cologne scored in all 5 recent H2H meetings
- St Pauli season: 50 goals conceded in 29 matches (1.72/game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCologne to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce few first-half goals — St Pauli's 0.4 FH GF is particularly anemic — and the most recent H2H saw no first-half goals, supporting a cagey opening 45 minutes.
- St Pauli average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 10 (0.9 total FH goals)
- Cologne average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded (1.3 total FH goals)
- St Pauli leading at HT only 40% of recent matches; trailing 40%
- Last H2H (Dec 2025) was 0-0 at half-time; Cologne vs Frankfurt also 0-0 at HT
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's very low corner count (3.3 avg) drags the combined total well below 10.5, and with their low-block possession style (38.5% avg), they generate minimal attacking corner situations.
- St Pauli average 3.3 corners in last 10 matches — extremely low
- Combined average from recent form: St Pauli 3.3 + Cologne 5.4 = 8.7 total corners
- St Pauli's last 5 matches: 3, 2, 3, 2, 6 corners won (avg 3.2)
- Cologne away: 0, 8, 8, 1 corners in recent away games — inconsistent
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average of 3.8 sits above the 3.5 line, and Cologne's propensity for cards (2.3/game) combined with a high-stakes relegation context for St Pauli should produce enough fouls to generate 4+ bookings.
- Cologne average 2.3 yellows per game in last 10; St Pauli average 1.5 yellows
- Combined average: 3.8 yellow cards per match from recent form
- Cologne's last 5 matches produced 3, 2, 8, 4, 1 yellows — highly variable with high peaks
- Relegation-pressure matches tend to be more physical; St Pauli average 9.3 fouls/game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Pauli's low possession style (38.5%) severely limits shot volume, their average of 9.7 sits below the 10.5 line, and key attacking absences further diminish their ability to generate chances.
- St Pauli average 9.7 total shots in last 10 matches
- St Pauli's last 5 matches: 6, 9, 12, 8, 11 shots — 3 of 5 under 10.5
- Missing attackers Jones and midfielders Fujita/Sands reduces creative output
- St Pauli average just 38.5% possession — limited time on the ball
BetBugs · Home Shots TotallostSt Pauli under 10.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D1-11. FC KölnvFC St. PauliDec 6, 2025BL

L4-11. FC KölnvFC St. PauliFeb 8, 20192.

W3-5FC St. Pauliv1. FC KölnSep 2, 20182.

L4-01. FC KölnvFC St. PauliMay 4, 20142.

W0-3FC St. Pauliv1. FC KölnNov 29, 20132.

4.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	St Pauli Relegation Playoffs	29	6	7	16	25-50	25	LDLLD
13	Cologne	29	7	9	13	43-50	30	WDDDL

5pt gap between teamsSt Pauli in relegation zone

Recent Form

St Pauli

L0-5Bayern MünchenApr 11BL

D1-1Union BerlinApr 5BL

L1-2SC FreiburgMar 22BL

L0-2Borussia MönchengladbachMar 13BL

D0-0Eintracht FrankfurtMar 8BL

W1-01899 HoffenheimFeb 28BL

W2-1Werder BremenFeb 22BL

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenFeb 14BL

W2-1VfB StuttgartFeb 7BL

L0-3Bayer LeverkusenFeb 3DFB

Cologne

W3-1Werder BremenApr 12BL

D2-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 5BL

D3-3Borussia MönchengladbachMar 21BL

D1-1Hamburger SVMar 14BL

L1-2Borussia DortmundMar 7BL

L0-2FC AugsburgFeb 27BL

D2-21899 HoffenheimFeb 21BL

L1-3VfB StuttgartFeb 14BL

L1-2RB LeipzigFeb 8BL

W1-0VfL WolfsburgJan 30BL

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

8 out

Attackers2/8

×#26

Midfielders6/8

×#16

×#6

×#8

×#16

×#6

×#8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

#16 J. Fujita — Yellow Cards

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#8 E. Smith — Injury

#16 J. Fujita — Yellow Cards

#26 R. Jones — Ankle Injury

#6 J. Sands — Ankle Injury

#8 E. Smith — Injury

Cologne

4 out

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders2/8

×#4

Goalkeeper3

#4 T. Hubers — Knee Injury

L. Kilian — Knee Injury

#4 T. Hubers — Knee Injury

L. Kilian — Knee Injury

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

Cologne, draw no bet

Under 9.5

Over 0.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Pauli

Cologne

Squad & Injuries

St Pauli

Cologne