Copa LibertadoresFull time

Predictions graded

LDU Quito2Mirassol0

HT 2–0Wed 15 Apr 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges3–0100%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 18–5On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Apr 2026, 13:06 · Europe/Bucharest

LDU Quito's 2,850m altitude home advantage meets Mirassol's unprecedented inexperience—the visitors are on their first-ever international away trip, coming off an 11-game domestic winless streak (0W-2L away in recent form).

Back LDU at 1.85 for 4pts edge (58% vs 54% implied); also value in first-half draw @ 2.20 (+7pts) and under 2.5 goals @ 1.91 (+7.6pts).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
LDU's massive altitude advantage at 2,850m, combined with Mirassol's complete lack of international away experience and dire recent away form (0W 2L in last 5), creates a compound structural and tactical edge that strongly favors the home side.
- LDU Quito play at ~2,850m altitude in Quito, a well-documented structural advantage in Libertadores home fixtures
- Mirassol are on their first-ever international away trip abroad with zero prior experience at altitude
- Mirassol have won just 1 of their last 5 matches overall (1W 4L) and 0 of 2 away (0W 2L in last 5)
- LDU won 3 of their last 5 matches (3W 2L) including a 1-0 away win at altitude vs Always Ready in Libertadores
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLDU QuitoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's catastrophic overall form (1W in last 5), historically unprecedented international inexperience, and the altitude factor make an outright away win extremely unlikely, giving a home-or-draw double chance very high probability.
- Mirassol have lost 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions, with only a home Libertadores win vs Lanus breaking the streak
- Mirassol endured an 11-game domestic winless run before that lone Libertadores victory
- LDU Quito conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per game)
- Altitude at 2,850m historically suppresses visiting team performance in South American continental football
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLDU Quito or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring output from both sides and the precedent of both teams drawing at half-time in their Libertadores openers, along with the typical cautious approach in continental group matches, points to a drawn first half as the most probable single outcome.
- LDU Quito were level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches (40% drawing at HT, but also 40% leading at HT)
- Mirassol were level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches (40% drawing, 20% leading, 30% trailing per averages)
- Both teams' Libertadores openers were drawn at half-time (0-0 in both cases)
- Combined first-half goal output is low (LDU 0.7 scored + 0.6 conceded; Mirassol 0.5 scored + 0.6 conceded)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
LDU's recent matches have been consistently low-scoring (1.4 total goals per game in last 5) and the altitude factor further suppresses Mirassol's attacking output, pointing toward a tight contest with few goals.
- LDU Quito average 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match over their last 5 (1.4 total goals per game)
- 4 of LDU's last 5 matches ended with under 2.5 goals (scores: 0-1, 1-0, 0-2, 1-0, 2-0)
- Both teams won their Libertadores openers 1-0, indicating tight, low-scoring group stage matches
- Altitude historically reduces physical output and attacking fluency for visiting teams, suppressing goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
LDU's strong clean sheet rate (3 in last 5) combined with Mirassol's struggles to score consistently (0 goals in 2 of last 5) and the altitude-induced physical degradation on the visitors suggests a meaningful probability that at least one side fails to score.
- LDU kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches (vs Always Ready, Manta FC, Leones del Norte)
- Mirassol failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (vs RB Bragantino and Vitoria, both away or home)
- Mirassol average only 0.8 goals per match over their last 5, and this drops further factoring in altitude impact
- LDU conceded 0 in their only 2026 Libertadores match (1-0 vs Always Ready)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LDU's demonstrated defensive solidity (60% clean sheet rate in last 5 matches) against a Mirassol side that struggles to score and faces an unprecedented altitude challenge makes a home clean sheet a plausible outcome.
- LDU Quito kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches across all competitions
- Mirassol scored 0 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches and average just 0.8 goals per game recently
- Mirassol have never played an international away match, let alone at 2,850m altitude
- LDU's Libertadores opener ended 1-0 (clean sheet at altitude vs Always Ready)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMirassol not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Mirassol did score in 3 of 5 recent matches, their away struggles combined with the unprecedented altitude challenge and LDU's solid defensive record give a meaningful chance of a Mirassol blank.
- Mirassol failed to score in 2 of 5 recent matches; their away record shows 0W 2L with 2 goals scored in 2 away matches
- Mirassol's first-ever international away trip at 2,850m altitude is a compounding negative factor for attacking output
- LDU conceded 0.6 goals per match over their last 5 (3 goals in 5 matches)
- Both of Mirassol's recent away losses saw limited offensive output (2-3 vs Botafogo, 0-1 vs Vitoria)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonMirassol under 0.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging around 1.1-1.3 total first-half goals per match and both Libertadores openers being goalless at the break, the cagey nature of early group stage fixtures combined with altitude adjustment time strongly favors a low-scoring first half.
- LDU Quito average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 first-half goals conceded over recent matches (1.3 total first-half goals)
- Mirassol average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.6 first-half goals conceded (1.1 total first-half goals)
- 3 of LDU's last 5 matches had 0-1 first-half goals combined (half-time results: L(0-1), D(0-0), L(0-1), W(1-0), D(0-0))
- Both teams' Libertadores openers were goalless at half-time (D at half-time in both matches)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner volumes independently (7.4 and 7.6 respectively in last 5), and the combined average of 10-12 total corners per match strongly supports an over 8.5 corners line.
- LDU Quito average 7.4 corners won per match in their last 5 (37 corners), with opponents averaging 3.2
- Mirassol average 7.6 corners per match in their last 5, with opponents averaging 4.8
- Combined corner average across both teams' recent matches: LDU matches ~10.6 total, Mirassol matches ~12.4 total
- 4 of LDU's last 5 matches had 10+ total corners (13, 11, 11, 10, 8)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
LDU's consistent corner generation (7.4 per match average, 4 of 5 over 5.5) combined with the likely territorial dominance they will enjoy at home at altitude against an internationally inexperienced side makes over 4.5 home corners well-supported.
- LDU Quito won 7.4 corners per match on average over their last 5 matches
- LDU had 11, 4, 9, 7, and 6 corners in their last 5 (4 of 5 matches had 6+ corners)
- LDU average 54.9% possession and generate 13.1 shots per match, creating sustained attacking pressure
- Mirassol conceded 4.8 corners per match on average over their last 5
BetBugs · Home CornerslostLDU Quito over 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams commit high foul counts (12-13 per match) and their recent matches produce elevated card totals (5-6 per match combined), and the Libertadores group stage intensity further supports a match with 4+ cards.
- LDU Quito matches produce 5.6 total yellow cards per game (2.0 for LDU + 3.6 for opponents over last 5)
- Mirassol average 2.8 yellow cards per match over their last 5, with opponents averaging 2.2
- Mirassol average 13.0 fouls per match and LDU average 12.0 fouls per match recently
- Libertadores group stage matches typically carry high intensity with competitive stakes driving disciplinary action
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	LDU Quito Playoffs	1	1	0	0	1-0	3	W
2	Mirassol Playoffs	1	1	0	0	1-0	3	W

LDU Quito leads the leagueMirassol leads the league

Recent Form

LDU Quito

L0-1Delfin SCApr 11LIG

W1-0Always ReadyApr 8CON

L0-2Barcelona SCApr 4LIG

W1-0Manta FCMar 22LIG

W2-0Leones del NorteMar 18LIG

D1-1Universidad CatolicaMar 15LIG

L1-2LibertadMar 8LIG

L0-2MacaraMar 1LIG

W2-1Orense SCFeb 21LIG

W4-2Always ReadyFeb 8FRI

Mirassol

L1-2BahiaApr 11SA

W1-0LanusApr 8CON

L0-1RB BragantinoApr 5SA

L2-3BotafogoApr 1SA

L0-1VitoriaMar 22SA

L0-1CoritibaMar 18SA

L0-1PalmeirasMar 15SA

D2-2SantosMar 11SA

L1-2PortuguesaFeb 15PAU

D2-2CruzeiroFeb 11SA

Squad & Injuries

LDU Quito

29 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Mirassol

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

LDU Quito

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

League Table

Recent Form

LDU Quito

Mirassol

Squad & Injuries

LDU Quito

Mirassol