Genoa vs Sassuolo: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong motivational asymmetry — Genoa are in a relegation fight under a new manager bounce, while Sassuolo have nothing to play for away from home.
- Genoa 16th with 33 pts, 6 points above relegation — high survival motivation
- Sassuolo 11th with 42 pts, comfortably mid-table with no pressure
- De Rossi has averaged 1.35 pts/game since replacing Vieira
- Sassuolo away record: 5W-4D-6L in 15 away Serie A games this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGenoa or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Genoa's extremely low first-half scoring output and the fact that 3 of their last 5 matches were level at half time suggest a drawn first half is the most probable single outcome.
- Genoa were level at half time in 50% of their last 10 matches
- 3 of Genoa's last 5 matches were draws at the break
- Genoa average just 0.3 first-half goals in their last 10 matches
- Sassuolo were trailing at half time in 50% of their last 10
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Genoa's poor overall home win rate (31%), the De Rossi new-manager effect and desperation of a relegation fight against a comfortable mid-table side give the home win a slight edge.
- Genoa home record: 5W-4D-7L in 16 games — 31% home win rate
- De Rossi bounce: 1.35 pts/game and 5-match unbeaten run before Juventus loss
- Sassuolo away record: 5W-4D-6L — lose 40% of away matches
- Strong motivational asymmetry: Genoa fighting relegation vs Sassuolo comfortable
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGenoaEstimated chance38%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern is compelling — both teams scored in all 5 recent meetings — and both sides have leaky defences combined with reasonable attacking output this season.
- All 5 H2H meetings since 2021 featured both teams scoring (scores: 0-1, 2-1, 2-1, 1-1, 2-2)
- Genoa concede 1.31 goals/game at home (21 GA in 16 home games)
- Sassuolo score 1.27 goals/game away (19 GF in 15 away games)
- Both sides have leaky defences combined with reasonable attacking output
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits yield approximately 2.5 goals per game, and the H2H pattern of high-scoring encounters supports over 2.5 goals.
- 4 of 5 H2H meetings had 3+ total goals
- Genoa home: 19 GF + 21 GA in 16 games = 2.5 total goals/game
- Sassuolo away: 19 GF + 19 GA in 15 games = 2.53 total goals/game
- Combined season averages hover at 2.5 total goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Genoa are extremely slow starters with only 0.3 first-half goals per game, suggesting this match will likely see 0 or 1 goals before the break.
- Genoa average only 0.3 first-half goals scored across their last 10 matches
- Genoa level at half time in 50% of their last 10 matches
- Sassuolo average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded across last 10
- 3 of Genoa's last 5 matches had 0 first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 first half goals goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away averages hover at exactly 2.5 goals per game and Genoa's slow-starting tendency caps the upper ceiling, making 3 or fewer total goals more probable.
- Genoa home average: 2.5 total goals/game
- Sassuolo away average: 2.53 total goals/game
- 3 of Genoa's last 5 matches ended with exactly 2 total goals
- Genoa's low first-half output caps the upper ceiling
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Genoa's porous home defence, Sassuolo's competent away scoring, and 100% Sassuolo scoring rate in recent H2H meetings make it highly probable Genoa will fail to keep a clean sheet.
- Genoa concede 1.31 goals/game at home this season
- All 5 H2H meetings since 2021 saw Sassuolo score at least once
- Sassuolo score 1.27 goals/game away from home
- Genoa missing Norton-Cuffy (defender) through injury
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSassuolo to scoreEstimated chance72%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Card-heavy referee Rapuano officiating a relegation-charged home match where both teams average 10+ fouls/game and Sassuolo carry a notably high card rate.
- Referee Rapuano averages 5.13 yellow cards per game across 164 career matches
- Sassuolo average 2.0 yellows and 0.7 reds per match across their last 10 games
- Both teams average 10+ fouls/game
- Relegation-pressure matches typically see elevated foul counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5 cardsEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sassuolo's persistent disciplinary problems combined with Rapuano's strict officiating style make it very probable the away side collects at least 2 cards.
- Sassuolo average 2.0 yellow cards per match in their last 10 games
- Sassuolo average 0.7 red cards per match in their last 10
- Referee Rapuano averages 5.13 yellows per game
- 4 of 5 recent Sassuolo games had 2+ bookings for the away side
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderwonSassuolo over 1.5 away cardsEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot averages of both teams (12.9 + 9.8 = 22.7) sit right around the 22.5 line, with Genoa's home desperation marginally pushing over.
- Genoa average 12.9 total shots per match in their last 10 games
- Sassuolo average 9.8 total shots per match in their last 10 games
- Combined average: 22.7 shots per match — just above the 22.5 threshold
- Genoa's home desperation under De Rossi's more attacking approach nudges the total over
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5 total shotsEstimated chance56%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Genoa2Sassuolo1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 4.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Genoa

Sassuolo

Squad & Injuries

Genoa

Sassuolo

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Genoa	31	8	9	14	36-44	33	LLWWL
11	Sassuolo	31	12	6	13	38-41	42	WDLLW