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Predictions graded

Burnley0Brighton2

HT 0–1Sat 11 Apr 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 10–13On targetOn target 5–6CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Apr 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Burnley (20 pts from 31 games, manager facing sack) represent a dead-rubber with minimal competitive motivation, while Brighton arrive in March surge form (3 wins, Manager of the Month nominee).

Back Brighton or Draw at 1.20 for -5 edge, or focus on Cards Over 3.5 (+8.36 edge) given both teams' elevated foul metrics (23.1 combined fouls per game, 4.7 yellows per game); Brighton clean sheet is underpriced despite missing Dunk.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Brighton or Draw

1.21fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83%

−5.0ppshort

Market has priced at 1.20 (83% implied probability), while our estimate stands at 78%. At -5 points, this represents fair-to-slight-undervalue territory. The market correctly identifies Burnley's near-zero probability of winning at home this season (W2 D5 L8, 13% win rate) but may be slightly generous given their absolute lack of motivation (20 pts from 31, manager facing sacking).

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Brighton or Draw

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 85%

−13.0ppshort

Market odds at 1.18 imply 85% probability. Our estimate is closer to 72% given Burnley's first-half goals average (0.6 per match) and Brighton averaging only 0.6 first-half goals as well. The market is overpricing the safety of a first-half draw or Brighton lead by 13 points. Slight headwind for this play.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Severe motivation asymmetry (Burnley effectively relegated at 20 pts from 31 games with manager under threat) combined with Brighton's 4-win-in-5 surge and Burnley's 7 absences gives Brighton the edge, though Brighton's away record (W4 D4 L7) and missing centre-backs Dunk and Webster temper the probability.
- Brighton form WWLWW in last 5 PL matches (3 wins in March 2026 including 2-1 over Liverpool); Burnley form LDLLD with 0 wins
- Burnley 19th with 20 pts from 31 games (GD -28), home record W2 D5 L8; Brighton 10th with 43 pts (GD +4)
- Brighton won the reverse fixture 2-0 in January 2026; unbeaten in 3 of last 4 H2H meetings
- Burnley missing 7 players (Amdouni, Beyer, Cullen, Laurent, Mejbri, Roberts, Tresor); manager Parker reportedly facing sacking
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrighton WinEstimated chance50%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's abysmal home win rate (13% this season, 2 in 15) and total absence of competitive motivation as a near-relegated side with a lame-duck manager make a Burnley victory highly improbable regardless of Brighton's defensive absences.
- Burnley have won only 2 of 15 home PL matches this season (W2 D5 L8), scoring just 15 home goals (1.0/game)
- Burnley last 5 form: LDLLD with zero wins; season record: W4 D8 L19 overall
- Brighton unbeaten in 3 of last 4 H2H meetings (W1 D2); won reverse fixture 2-0 in Jan 2026
- Intel confirms dead-rubber motivation for Burnley: relegation near-certain, Parker sacking imminent
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBrighton or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's defensive fragility (2.1 goals conceded per game in last 10) and depleted backline create a structural vulnerability, though Brighton's tighter recent matches (2.0 average total) and Burnley's low attacking output (1.1 goals/game) make this a borderline call.
- Burnley concede 2.1 goals per game over last 10 matches; season home record: 23 conceded in 15 games (1.53/game)
- Burnley last 5 match totals: 4, 0, 2, 7, 2 goals (average 3.0 per match)
- Both defences weakened: Burnley missing defender Beyer; Brighton missing both Dunk (suspended) and Webster (knee)
- Brighton last 5 match totals: 3, 1, 1, 3, 2 goals (average 2.0 per match)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's severely depleted attack (both main forwards out plus three midfielders) and their failure to score in 3 of the last 5 matches, combined with their dead-rubber mentality, makes a Burnley blank plausible despite Brighton losing defensive organiser Dunk.
- Burnley scored 0 goals in 3 of their last 5 PL matches (0-0 vs Bournemouth, 0-2 vs Everton, 0-2 in reverse H2H)
- Burnley average 1.0 goal per home game this season (15 in 15 home matches)
- Burnley missing attackers Tresor (ankle) and Amdouni (knee), plus creative midfielders Cullen, Laurent, and Mejbri
- Brighton conceded 1.1 goals per game over last 10; only 0.4 first-half goals conceded per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Burnley's toothless attack (0 goals in 3 of last 5) and missing forwards support a Brighton clean sheet, but losing both Dunk and Webster at centre-back materially weakens Brighton's defensive structure away from home, warranting only low confidence.
- Burnley failed to score in 3 of last 5 PL matches; managed just 3.2 shots on target per game over last 10
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in the reverse fixture (2-0 win, Jan 2026)
- Burnley missing attackers Amdouni (knee) and Tresor (ankle), plus all three key midfielders (Cullen, Laurent, Mejbri)
- Brighton lose both Dunk (suspended) and Webster (knee) at centre-back, leaving them without their two senior CBs
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBurnley not to scoreEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's consistent ability to find 2+ goals in recent wins (3 of last 5 matches) combined with their high shot accuracy (4.3 SOT/game) and Burnley's leaky home defence (1.53 GA/game) supports Brighton scoring at least twice.
- Brighton scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 5 PL matches (2-1 vs Liverpool, 2-1 vs Nott'm Forest, 2-0 vs Brentford)
- Brighton average 4.3 shots on target per game over last 10 matches; last 5 SOT: 7, 4, 3, 7, 7
- Burnley concede 1.53 goals per home game this season (23 in 15) and 2.1 per game over last 10 overall
- Burnley missing defender Beyer (hamstring) and their defensive structure is disrupted by 7 total absences
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBrighton over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's cautious first-half approach (leading at HT only 30% of the time, just 0.6 FH goals/game) combined with Burnley's limited first-half output (0.6 goals/game) and pattern of goalless first halves in recent matches suggests under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Burnley average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 1.2 first-half goals conceded over last 10 matches
- Brighton average 0.6 first-half goals scored and only 0.4 first-half goals conceded over last 10
- Brighton leading at half-time in only 30% of last 10 matches; level at HT in 3 of last 5
- Burnley trailing at half-time in 50% of last 10 matches but level at HT in 2 of last 5 (0-0 vs Fulham, 0-0 vs Bournemouth)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' high foul counts (combined 23.1 per game) and elevated yellow card averages (combined 4.7/game over last 10) strongly support over 3.5 total cards, with Burnley's frustration factor from their relegation situation adding further risk.
- Burnley average 2.1 yellow cards and 0.5 red cards per game over last 10 matches
- Brighton average 2.6 yellow cards per game over last 10 matches; combined average: 4.7 yellows/game
- Combined fouls: Burnley 10.3 + Brighton 12.8 = 23.1 fouls per game over last 10
- Brighton's last match vs Liverpool produced 5 yellows per side (10 total); Laurent already out for Burnley via red card
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's high shot accuracy (averaging 5.6 SOT over last 5 matches) against Burnley's porous defence that allows 4.6 opponent SOT per game makes the over 7.5 combined SOT a reasonable expectation, even with Burnley's modest 3.2 SOT contribution.
- Burnley average 3.2 SOT per game; Brighton average 4.3 SOT per game over last 10 (combined 7.5)
- Brighton last 5 matches SOT: 7, 4, 3, 7, 7 (average 5.6 per match)
- Burnley concede an average of 4.6 opponent SOT per game in last 5 (opponents: 6, 3, 5, 7, 2)
- Burnley's defensive weakness (2.1 goals conceded/game over last 10) reflects an inability to limit quality chances
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brighton's possession-based style yields lower total corner counts in their matches (9.4 average over last 5), but Burnley's matches tend to produce more corners (12.0 average) when opponents dominate territory, creating conflicting signals and only low confidence.
- Burnley average 4.2 corners per game; Brighton average 4.4 corners per game over last 10 (combined 8.6)
- Brighton last 5 corner totals (team + opponent): 12, 10, 7, 8, 10 (average 9.4)
- Burnley last 5 corner totals: 12, 13, 9, 12, 14 (average 12.0) — but Burnley's low possession (44.8%) reduces their own corner generation
- Brighton's possession dominance (53.3% average) suggests controlled play with fewer transition-based corner sequences
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-0BrightonvBurnleyJan 3, 2026PL

D1-1BurnleyvBrightonApr 13, 2024PL

D1-1BrightonvBurnleyDec 9, 2023PL

W0-3BrightonvBurnleyFeb 19, 2022PL

L1-2BurnleyvBrightonAug 14, 2021PL

2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Burnley Relegation - Championship	31	4	8	19	33-61	20	LDLLD
10	Brighton	31	11	10	10	41-37	43	WWLWW

23pt gap between teamsBurnley in relegation zone

Recent Form

Burnley

L1-3FulhamMar 21PL

D0-0BournemouthMar 14PL

L0-2EvertonMar 3PL

L3-4BrentfordFeb 28PL

D1-1ChelseaFeb 21PL

L1-2Mansfield TownFeb 14FAC

W3-2Crystal PalaceFeb 11PL

L0-2West HamFeb 7PL

L0-3SunderlandFeb 2PL

D2-2TottenhamJan 24PL

Brighton

W2-1LiverpoolMar 21PL

W1-0SunderlandMar 14PL

L0-1ArsenalMar 4PL

W2-1Nottingham ForestMar 1PL

W2-0BrentfordFeb 21PL

L0-3LiverpoolFeb 14FAC

L0-1Aston VillaFeb 11PL

L0-1Crystal PalaceFeb 8PL

D1-1EvertonJan 31PL

L1-2FulhamJan 24PL

Squad & Injuries

Burnley

14 out

Attackers2/7

×#31

Midfielders6/12

×#24

×#29

×#28

×#24

×#29

×#28

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Z. Amdouni — Knee Injury

J. Beyer — Hamstring Injury

#24 J. Cullen — Knee Injury

#29 J. Laurent — Red Card

#28 H. Mejbri — Hamstring Injury

C. Roberts — Muscle Injury

#31 M. Tresor Ndayishimiye — Ankle Injury

Z. Amdouni — Knee Injury

J. Beyer — Hamstring Injury

#24 J. Cullen — Knee Injury

#29 J. Laurent — Red Card

#28 H. Mejbri — Hamstring Injury

C. Roberts — Muscle Injury

#31 M. Tresor Ndayishimiye — Ankle Injury

Brighton

6 out

Attackers2/8

×#9

Midfielders9

Defenders2/9

×#5

Goalkeeper3

#5 L. Dunk — Yellow Cards

#9 S. Tzimas — Knee Injury

A. Webster — Knee Injury

#5 L. Dunk — Yellow Cards

#9 S. Tzimas — Knee Injury

A. Webster — Knee Injury