BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Borussia Dortmund0Bayer Leverkusen1

HT 0–1Sat 11 Apr 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges0–30%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 14–11On targetOn target 1–4CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Apr 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Motivation asymmetry (Leverkusen's season-defining must-win vs Dortmund's secure position) paired with a 3.13 goals-per-game H2H average and Dortmund's midfield injuries make Over 2.5 goals (72% est. vs 66.7% implied, +5.3pt edge) and Both Teams to Score (70% est. vs 67.6% implied, +2.4pt edge) the clearest actionable plays; avoid match winner markets where conflicting patterns (Dortmund home dominance vs away-team h2h history) create ambiguity.

Context

54 all-time H2H meetings average 3.13 goals per game
- January 2025: 2-3 (5 goals), May 2025: 2-4 (6 goals)
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
Leverkusen 6th with 6 games remaining, need top-4 for European qualification
- Kasper Hjulmand is Leverkusen's 3rd manager this season, faces summer review
- Dortmund 2nd, 9 points clear of 3rd, Champions League secured
- Niko Kovac confirmed as Dortmund coach through 2026-27
Karim Adeyemi suspended for this match
- Emre Can sidelined with knee injury
- Felix Nmecha sidelined with knee injury
- Yan Couto has muscle injury, Mane doubtful

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's dominant home record and strong current form give them the statistical edge, but the H2H pattern of away-team dominance and Dortmund's key absences moderate the home-win probability.
- Dortmund 2nd with 64 points, home record 11W-2D-1L this season
- Dortmund on a 4-match Bundesliga winning streak
- Leverkusen's away record is 6W-4D-4L, conceding 24 goals in 14 away games
- H2H at Dortmund's ground: away team won 2 of 3 decisive results in last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBorussia DortmundEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The striking H2H pattern where the home team has failed to win any of the last 5 meetings, combined with extreme motivation asymmetry and Dortmund's depleted squad, gives Leverkusen a realistic path to at least avoiding defeat.
- All 4 decisive results in last 5 H2H meetings were won by the away team
- Leverkusen under extreme motivation pressure (6th, need top-4, 3rd manager this season)
- Dortmund missing Adeyemi (suspended), Can and Nmecha (knee injuries), Couto (muscle)
- Dortmund's urgency is low: 2nd place secured, 9 points clear of 3rd
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBayer Leverkusen or DrawEstimated chance58%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The historically high-scoring H2H profile (3.13 avg goals) is reinforced by both teams' current attacking output and Leverkusen's desperate need to attack openly in a season-defining fixture.
- H2H average of 3.13 goals per meeting across 54 all-time fixtures; 11 goals across last 2 Bundesliga meetings
- Dortmund average 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game over last 10 matches
- Leverkusen scored 6 vs Wolfsburg and 3 vs Heidenheim in their last 2 Bundesliga outings
- Leverkusen in must-win territory (6th, 3rd manager this season) forcing open attacking play
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides possess strong attacking output and the H2H pattern confirms mutual scoring in 4 of 5 recent meetings, while Leverkusen's must-win motivation ensures committed forward play.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings
- Dortmund conceded in 3 of their last 5 recent form matches
- Leverkusen have scored 26 goals in 14 away games this season (1.86 per away game)
- Dortmund scored in all 5 of their last matches; Leverkusen scored in 4 of their last 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H trend and Leverkusen's involvement in high-scoring matches support over 3.5, though Dortmund's strong home defensive record prevents high confidence.
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings produced 4+ total goals
- Dortmund's last 5 matches averaged 3.5 total goals per game
- Leverkusen's last 2 Bundesliga games produced 9 and 6 total goals
- Combined season totals: Dortmund 3.14 goals/game, Leverkusen 3.46 goals/game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's strong away scoring rate and H2H record of scoring at Dortmund's ground, combined with Dortmund's depleted midfield, makes a Dortmund clean sheet unlikely.
- Dortmund conceded in 3 of their last 5 form matches
- Leverkusen scored 26 goals in 14 away games this season (1.86/game)
- Dortmund missing midfield enforcers Can and Nmecha (both knee injuries)
- Leverkusen scored in both Bundesliga H2H meetings in the last 12 months
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBayer Leverkusen to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dortmund's exceptional home scoring rate against a Leverkusen defence that has conceded in every recent match makes a Leverkusen clean sheet highly improbable.
- Leverkusen conceded in all 5 of their last matches
- Leverkusen have conceded 24 goals in 14 away games this season (1.71 per away game)
- Dortmund have scored 33 goals in 14 home games this season (2.36 per home game)
- Leverkusen's defensive concerns: 3 defenders questionable plus Terrier confirmed out
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBorussia Dortmund to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently produce first-half goals and Leverkusen's inability to afford a patient approach suggests early attacking intensity.
- Dortmund average 0.9 first-half goals scored per game over last 10 matches
- Leverkusen average 0.7 first-half goals scored per game
- Dortmund were leading at half-time in 60% of their recent matches
- H2H last 5: first-half goals occurred in at least 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate above-average corner volumes and the expected open, attacking nature of the match should produce double-digit combined corners.
- Dortmund average 5.5 corners per game over last 10 matches
- Leverkusen also average 5.5 corners per game
- Dortmund's recent home games show high corner volume: 11, 12, and 5 corners
- Combined corner averages (5.5 + 5.5 = 11.0) exceed the 9.5 line
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are high-volume shot creators and the tactical dynamic guarantees heavy shot volume from both sides.
- Dortmund average 13.0 total shots per game; Leverkusen average 14.5 (combined 27.5)
- Leverkusen's last 3 matches: 25, 14, and 9 shots
- Dortmund generated 24 shots at home vs Hamburger SV
- Both teams average over 4 shots on target per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average of 4.7 per game and the high-stakes nature of the fixture makes 4+ cards the likely outcome.
- Dortmund average 2.6 yellow cards per game; Leverkusen average 2.1 (combined 4.7)
- Dortmund received 4 yellows vs Stuttgart in recent match
- Leverkusen received 4 yellows vs Heidenheim and 4 vs Arsenal
- High-stakes fixture with extreme motivation asymmetry
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L0-1Borussia DortmundvBayer LeverkusenDec 2, 2025DFB

W1-2Bayer LeverkusenvBorussia DortmundNov 29, 2025BL

W2-4Bayer LeverkusenvBorussia DortmundMay 11, 2025BL

L2-3Borussia DortmundvBayer LeverkusenJan 10, 2025BL

D1-1Borussia DortmundvBayer LeverkusenApr 21, 2024BL

3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Borussia Dortmund Champions League	28	19	7	2	60-28	64	WWWWL
6	Bayer Leverkusen Conference League Qualification	28	14	7	7	58-39	49	WDDDW

15pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund

W2-0VfB StuttgartApr 4BL

W3-2Hamburger SVMar 21BL

W2-0FC AugsburgMar 14BL

W2-11. FC KölnMar 7BL

L2-3Bayern MünchenFeb 28BL

L1-4AtalantaFeb 25UEF

D2-2RB LeipzigFeb 21BL

W2-0AtalantaFeb 17UEF

W4-0FSV Mainz 05Feb 13BL

W2-1VfL WolfsburgFeb 7BL

Bayer Leverkusen

W6-3VfL WolfsburgApr 4BL

D3-31. FC HeidenheimMar 21BL

L0-2ArsenalMar 17UEF

D1-1Bayern MünchenMar 14BL

D1-1ArsenalMar 11UEF

D3-3SC FreiburgMar 7BL

W1-0Hamburger SVMar 4BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05Feb 28BL

D0-0Olympiakos PiraeusFeb 24UEF

L0-1Union BerlinFeb 21BL

Squad & Injuries

Borussia Dortmund

10 out

Attackers2/6

×#27

Midfielders4/10

×#23

×#8

×#23

×#8

Defenders4/10

×#2

×#39

×#2

×#39

Goalkeeper4

#27 K. Adeyemi — Yellow Cards

#23 E. Can — Knee Injury

#2 Y. Couto — Muscle Injury

#8 F. Nmecha — Knee Injury

#39 F. Mane — Thigh Injury

#27 K. Adeyemi — Yellow Cards

#23 E. Can — Knee Injury

#2 Y. Couto — Muscle Injury

#8 F. Nmecha — Knee Injury

#39 F. Mane — Thigh Injury

Bayer Leverkusen

8 out

Attackers2/8

×#11

Midfielders8

Defenders6/9

×#13

×#21

×#4

×#13

×#21

×#4

Goalkeeper5

#11 M. Terrier — Hamstring Injury

#13 Arthur — Ankle Injury

#21 Lucas — Calf Injury

#4 J. Quansah — Thigh Injury

#11 M. Terrier — Hamstring Injury

#13 Arthur — Ankle Injury

#21 Lucas — Calf Injury

#4 J. Quansah — Thigh Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 10.5

Result1 of 2 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund

Bayer Leverkusen

Squad & Injuries

Borussia Dortmund

Bayer Leverkusen