Girona vs Villarreal: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's significant quality advantage (24-point gap in standings, +33 goal difference differential) and Girona's poor home record combined with their GK absence makes Villarreal the most likely winner, though their inconsistent away form tempers confidence.
- Villarreal 3rd with 58 pts, form WDWLW; Girona 14th with 34 pts, form LWDLD
- Villarreal 6W-3D-5L away (43% win rate); Girona 5W-4D-5L at home (36% win rate)
- Villarreal season: 54 GF/34 GA (+20 GD) vs Girona 31 GF/44 GA (-13 GD)
- Girona missing first-choice GK Ter Stegen; Villarreal lethal in transition
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVillarrealEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's poor home record, terrible recent form, relegation-adjacent pressure, managerial distraction, and missing GK all compound against a Villarreal side with vastly superior quality and Champions League motivation.
- Girona home win rate only 36% (5W in 14 home games)
- Girona's recent form LWDLD – only 1 win in last 5
- Villarreal away: won or drawn 9 of 14 away matches (64%)
- Michel contract distraction confirmed as of April 2, 2026
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVillarreal or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Villarreal are the quality side, their inconsistent away record (5 losses in 14) and Girona's desperation near the relegation zone creates enough uncertainty to keep this at low confidence despite the clear quality gap.
- Villarreal away wins: 6 of 14 (43%)
- Girona home losses: 5 of 14 (36%)
- H2H at Girona's home: Villarreal won 0-1 (May 2025), Girona won 0-1 (May 2024) – tight margins
- Villarreal +20 GD vs Girona -13 GD season-wide
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostVillarreal -0.5Estimated chance44%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits produce ~2.7-2.9 total goals per game, compounded by defensive absences on both sides (Foyth, Ter Stegen) and a tactical matchup where Villarreal's counter-attacking style can exploit Girona's possession-heavy approach with a backup goalkeeper.
- Girona home record: 16 GF/21 GA in 14 games (2.64 total goals/game at home)
- Villarreal away record: 20 GF/21 GA in 14 games (2.93 total goals/game away)
- Both teams missing key defenders (Foyth for Villarreal, GK Ter Stegen for Girona)
- H2H Jan 2026 ended 2-1; Dec 2024 ended 2-2; Aug 2025 ended 5-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's away defensive vulnerability (1.50 GA/game away) gives Girona realistic scoring chances, while Girona's backup GK situation and poor home defensive record (1.50 GA/game) means Villarreal's potent counter-attack should find the net.
- Villarreal scored in 12 of 14 away matches this season (20 goals, 1.43/game away)
- Girona scored in 4 of last 5 matches across all venues
- Girona home: 16 GF in 14 games; Villarreal concede 21 GA in 14 away games (1.50/game)
- 3 of last 5 H2H meetings saw both teams score (2-2, 1-2, 2-1)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's extremely low first-half goals conceded (0.1/game) and conservative early-game approach suggests a cagey first half, even though Villarreal are first-half scorers – the away context typically dampens early attacking output.
- Girona average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.1 conceded (last 10) = 0.6 total 1H goals
- Girona leading at HT 40% of time, trailing 0% – defensively solid early
- Villarreal average 1.0 first-half goals but concede 0.9 – combined 1.9 but skewed by home matches
- Villarreal trailed at HT in 50% of recent away-heavy sample; 1H away goals likely lower
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's leaky away defensive record (1.50 GA/game) and Foyth's absence, combined with Girona's desperation near the relegation zone driving attacking urgency, makes an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Villarreal concede 1.50 goals/game away (21 GA in 14 away matches)
- Villarreal kept clean sheet in only ~4-5 of 14 away games based on W/D/L distribution
- Girona scored in 4 of last 5 matches; scored 3 vs Athletic Club at home recently
- Missing defender Foyth weakens Villarreal's back line
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGirona to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Villarreal's efficient counter-attacking output combined with Girona's poor home defensive record and the absence of their first-choice goalkeeper creates conditions for Villarreal to score multiple goals.
- Villarreal average 1.43 goals/game away (20 in 14 matches)
- Girona concede 1.50 goals/game at home (21 in 14 home matches)
- Girona missing first-choice GK Ter Stegen (hamstring injury)
- Villarreal scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 matches (3-1, 2-1, 2-1)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostVillarreal over 1.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Girona's possession-based approach generates significant corner volume (both for and against), and Villarreal's low-block counter-attacking style typically concedes territorial pressure that converts to corners, pushing combined totals above 8.5.
- Girona average 4.4 corners/game; opponents average ~6.0 corners against them (last 5 visible matches)
- Villarreal average 3.1 corners but concede corners to possession-heavy opponents
- Girona's possession style (54.2% avg) likely to generate corner opportunities
- Last 5 Girona matches: corner totals of 8, 11, 5, 16, 13 (avg 10.6)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined foul rate of 23.3/game and average of 4.2 yellow cards between the two sides, amplified by high-stakes motivation on both ends (relegation vs CL qualification), supports exceeding 3.5 total cards.
- Villarreal average 12.5 fouls/game (last 10); Girona 10.8 fouls/game
- Combined yellow card average: Girona 2.2 + Villarreal 2.0 = 4.2 per match
- Villarreal opponents averaged 2.4 YC in recent matches; Girona opponents ~2.0 YC
- Relegation pressure + Champions League stakes increase tactical fouling likelihood
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Girona1Villarreal0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Girona

Villarreal

Squad & Injuries

Girona

Villarreal

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Girona	29	8	10	11	31-44	34	LWDLD
3	Villarreal Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	29	18	4	7	54-34	58	WDWLW