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Stefanos Sakellaridis #132GreeceYuta Shimizu #404Japan

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 03:303 Nov, 03:30First RoundI.hard

10Probabilities3Priced3Edges73%Strongest

Strong leanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefanos Sakellaridis · 272 places

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

Sakellaridis reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 146 on 22 June 2026. ITF lists a 31–16 professional record in 2026, including 16–7 on clay and 11–6 on hard courts; no reliable current injury or decline signal surfaced.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #404
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 2 Nov 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

A No. 132 versus No. 404 ranking gap runs opposite to the hard-court form, with Shimizu 8-7 on the surface and Sakellaridis 3-6.

Shimizu's return numbers and 10-5 second-set record make him the likelier winner. All three quoted Shimizu selections are the ones the form supports: 2.1 for the match, 2.0 for the first set and 2.0 for the second. Sakellaridis at 1.65 asks too much.

Context

No availability, fitness or situational evidence came back for either player, so the read rests on dated hard-court records and set splits alone.

That 10-5 second-set split is the most one-sided set record either player brings into this match.
Sakellaridis is 4-5 in second sets on the same surface, so a match that reaches a second set favours Shimizu on the record. The sample covers 15 matches and none of those second sets went to a tiebreak, so the edge is modest rather than decisive.
- Second-set record 10-5 across 15 completed best-of-three hard-court matches (21 Jul – 2 Nov 2026)
- Averages 5.1 games won and 4.1 games lost in second sets
- No second-set tiebreaks in those 15 matches
It shows the ranking gap is backed by at least one recent win over a top-110 opponent.
That result is why a ranking of 132 carries weight against a No. 404 opponent, and it sits in the same fortnight as his 4-12 loss to No. 87 Chak Lam Coleman Wong on 29 October. One win over a higher-ranked player is a data point, not a trend.
- Beat Alexander Shevchenko (No. 109) 7-6 6-4 on 18 October 2026
- Played on indoor hard and completed in two sets
His first sets have been the most competitive part of a hard-court run that has produced only three wins in nine matches.
He averages 4.9 games won to 5.4 lost in opening sets, so they stay close even when the match later gets away from him. Four tiebreaks in nine matches is a small sample, so treat it as a tendency rather than a dependable rate.
- First sets average 10.3 total games across nine hard-court matches (25 Aug – 29 Oct 2026)
- Four first-set tiebreaks in those nine matches
- First-set games 4.9 won to 5.4 lost
He arrives with fresh, quick wins rather than a long layoff.
Zhu is ranked 462, so the margin says more about sharpness than about the level Shimizu will meet in the first round. It does confirm recent match time on this surface the day before this fixture.
- Beat Evan Zhu (No. 462) 6-1 6-3 on 2 November 2026
- Won 12 of the 16 games played

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 52%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Shimizu's steadier hard-court results and stronger return numbers give him a slight advantage despite the lower ranking.
- Hard-court record 8-7 with 50.8% total points won.
- Return points won 37.8%, above Sakellaridis's 34.0%.
- Set2 record 10-5 on hard courts.
- Won last two completed matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerYuta ShimizuMarket price2.10Estimated chance52%

Games3 outcomes · top 56%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average below ten games and tiebreaks are rare.
- Sakellaridis's second sets average 9.2 total games.
- Shimizu's second sets average 9.2 total games.
- Shimizu has no second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' hard-court matches have ended in two sets with modest game totals.
- Seventeen of 24 combined hard-court matches finished in two sets.
- Sakellaridis's hard-court total games average 20.6.
- Shimizu's second sets average 9.2 games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 22.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average near ten games, with Sakellaridis often going to tiebreaks.
- Sakellaridis's first sets average 10.3 total games on hard courts.
- Shimizu's first sets average 9.9 total games on hard courts.
- Sakellaridis has four first-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sakellaridis's short matches and Shimizu's two-set wins make a straight-set finish more likely.
- Sakellaridis has eight two-set matches in nine on hard courts.
- Shimizu has nine two-set matches in 15 on hard courts.
- Combined hard-court total sets average is below three.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Shimizu's clearly better second-set record makes him the likely set-two winner.
- Shimizu is 10-5 in second sets on hard courts.
- Sakellaridis is 4-5 in second sets on hard courts.
- Shimizu's second-set games average is 5.1 won to 4.1 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerYuta ShimizuMarket price2.00Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Shimizu's better first-set record and game margin make him the slightly more likely opening-set winner.
- Shimizu is 8-7 in first sets on hard courts.
- Shimizu averages 5.3 first-set games won to 4.7 lost.
- Sakellaridis is 3-6 in first sets on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerYuta ShimizuMarket price2.00Estimated chance54%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these hard-court matches did not include a tiebreak, favoring no.
- Sixteen of 24 combined hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Shimizu has had four tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Sakellaridis has had four in nine.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate is below the line and shorter matches reduce service games.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is 6.1 per match.
- Sakellaridis averages 2.8; Shimizu 3.3.
- Most combined hard-court matches finished in two sets.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just above the line, making the over marginally more likely.
- Sakellaridis averages 6.8 aces per hard-court match.
- Shimizu averages 4.9 aces per hard-court match.
- Combined average is 11.7 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 11.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Stefanos Sakellaridis

5W 10L

6-1 6-3#87Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-2#200Timofey Skatov

7-6(4) 7-6(3)#341Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(4) 6-4#109Alexander Shevchenko

6-2 6-3#331Petr Bar Biryukov

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#185Keegan Smith

6-3 6-2#200Timofey Skatov

7-6(11) 6-2#404Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(4)#370Norbert Gombos

6-1 6-1#80Alex Molcan

6-1 5-7 7-5#136Laslo Djere

7-6(1) 2-6 6-4#380Duje Ajdukovic

6-4 6-4#274Mili Poljicak

2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#235Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-3#118Christopher O'Connell

Yuta Shimizu

8W 7L

6-1 6-3#462Evan Zhu 6-2 6-2#537Dimitris Sakellaridis

7-5 3-6 6-4#330Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#274Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-1#616Max Purcell

5-7 6-2 7-6(5)#179Bernard Tomic

7-6(11) 6-2#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 2-6 7-5#338Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#398Arthur Weber

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#482Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#368Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#884Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#309Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#443Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#231Liam Broady

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SSStefanos SakellaridisSakellaridis

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1559.3%+3.6pp62.9%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1570.8%+1.4pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1553.7%+3.6pp50.1%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/156.5+1.64.9

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.2—3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1533.4%+4.4pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1545.0%+3.6pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1563.0%+5.9pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1548.9%+1.9pp50.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.3%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+3.6pp62.9%

70.8%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp72.2%

53.7%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+3.6pp50.1%

6.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.64.9

3.2Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/15—3.3

Return · 0–1

33.4%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+4.4pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

45.0%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+3.6pp41.4%

63.0%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+5.9pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.9pp50.8%