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Mika Brunold #191SwitzerlandMichael Vrbensky #675Czechia

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 10:003 Nov, 10:00First RoundI.hard

8Probabilities0Priced2Edges70%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMika Brunold · 484 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #191
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Michael Vrbensky

Czechia

Vrbensky reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 277 on 15 July 2024. Official ITF records show his year-end singles ranking moved from No. 299 in 2023 to No. 636 in 2025; no reliable source in this search attributed that change to an active injury.

Current ranking: #675
Peak ranking: #277 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 2 Nov 2026, 22:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Mika Brunold, ranked 191, meets Michael Vrbensky, ranked 675, in the Bratislava first round, with the ranking gap pointing to Brunold but Vrbensky having won both his indoor hard matches this week in straight sets.

Brunold is the likelier winner, yet 1.12 gives that outcome nothing. The prices with something to offer are Vrbensky at 5.25 to win the match and 3.8 to take the first set.

Context

No sourced team news, injury updates or head-to-head history; the read rests on recent indoor hard results, rankings and set patterns.

Brunold's first sets in that sample were 5-3 in his favour, but the second set has been an even split.
Second sets are where Brunold's eight-match sample is level rather than dominant, and it is the one phase where Vrbensky's week gives him something to hold. If the match goes long, that split is the opening.
- Eight indoor hard matches tracked, 12-26 October 2026: second sets won 4, lost 4.
- Second sets averaged 4.5 games won against 5.625 games lost.
- First sets in the same sample were 5-3 in Brunold's favour.
Both wins came over opponents ranked well above his own 675, though the sample is two matches.
Two wins over higher-ranked opponents is a genuine lift for a player ranked 675, and both were closed out without a tiebreak. The caveat is the sample: two matches, with a 5-9 wider record behind them.
- Two indoor hard matches tracked, 1-2 November 2026: both won 2-0.
- Beat Max Houkes (215) 6-4 6-4 on 2 November 2026.
- Beat Marek Gengel (423) 7-5 7-5 on 1 November 2026.
- Wider recent record is 5 wins and 9 losses in 14 tracked matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold has the stronger ranking and the more complete hard-court record, while Vrbensky's two wins came against lower-ranked opponents.
- Brunold is ranked 191; Vrbensky is ranked 675.
- Brunold is 6-2 on hard courts in his current sample.
- Vrbensky is 2-0 on hard courts but only two matches.
- Brunold is 12-3 in his last 15 completed matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerMika BrunoldEstimated chance70%

Games3 outcomes · top 63%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have regularly reached at least 10 games, with Brunold especially involved in tiebreaks.
- Brunold's hard-court first sets average 10.75 games.
- Vrbensky's hard-court first sets average 11 games.
- Brunold had four tiebreaks in eight hard-court first sets.
- Vrbensky's first sets finished 7-5 and 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's hard-court matches often go beyond 23.5 games, and a likely three-set share supports the over.
- Brunold's hard-court matches average 24.1 total games.
- Vrbensky's two hard-court matches average 22 total games.
- Brunold had a tiebreak in 5 of 8 hard-court matches.
- Brunold's hard-court sets average 2.375 per match.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 23.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also tended to reach at least 10 games, though Vrbensky's 6-4 sets are close to the line.
- Brunold's hard-court second sets average 10.125 games.
- Vrbensky's hard-court second sets average 11 games.
- Brunold had three tiebreaks in eight hard-court second sets.
- Vrbensky's second sets finished 6-4 and 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance57%

Sets3 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold has the stronger surface record and higher ranking, though Vrbensky has started well in his two wins.
- Brunold won 5 of 8 first sets on hard courts.
- Vrbensky won both of his hard-court first sets.
- Brunold is ranked 191; Vrbensky is ranked 675.
- Brunold is 6-2 on hard courts in his current sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerMika BrunoldEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's overall level and ranking give him the advantage, but his second-set record is even.
- Brunold is 4-4 in second sets on hard courts.
- Vrbensky is 2-0 in second sets on hard courts.
- Brunold is 6-2 on hard courts overall in his current sample.
- Vrbensky's two hard-court matches both ended 2-0.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerMika BrunoldEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vrbensky's two straight-set wins and Brunold's five two-set matches make under 2.5 sets slightly more likely.
- Vrbensky won both hard-court matches 2-0.
- Brunold has five two-set matches in his eight-match hard-court sample.
- Brunold's hard-court matches average 2.375 sets.
- Vrbensky's two hard-court matches average 2.0 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 outcome · top 55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's recent hard-court matches have frequently produced tiebreaks, and Vrbensky's wins were close enough to suggest another.
- Brunold had a tiebreak in 5 of 8 hard-court matches.
- Brunold had four first-set tiebreaks in eight hard-court matches.
- Vrbensky had no tiebreaks in his two hard-court matches.
- Brunold's recent 2-0 wins included 7-6 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance55%

Mika Brunold

12W 3L

6-3 6-1#53Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 6-4#236Remy Bertola

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#57Jaime Faria

2-6 7-6(5) 6-1#245Matteo Martineau

7-6(2) 7-6(3)#222Jerome Kym

6-3 2-6 6-3#178Felix Balshaw

6-2 2-6 6-4#99Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(2) 6-3—Mathys Domenc

6-0 3-6 6-4#302Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#323Francesco Forti

6-3 1-6 7-5#363Massimo Giunta

6-4 6-3#186Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-2#170Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-1#113Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#688Filip Misolic

Michael Vrbensky

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#215Max Houkes

7-5 7-5#423Marek Gengel

7-5 7-5#229Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-1#219Raul Brancaccio

6-3 6-4#339Patrick Schoen

4-3 ret.#417Olle Wallin

7-5 6-2#630Kai Wehnelt

2-6 6-2 6-4#440Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 3-6 6-2#95Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 5-7 6-3#649Maxime Janvier

7-6(2) 6-7(2) 6-4#881Patrik Niklas-Salminen

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#649Maxime Janvier

7-6(4) 6-1#583Milos Karol

6-0 6-1#225Marvin Moeller

7-6(4) 6-3#324Dali Blanch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Michael VrbenskyVrbenskyMV

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Michael Vrbensky's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In67.5%+10.0pp57.5%

1st Serve Won68.9%+0.8pp69.7%

2nd Serve Won55.8%+6.2pp49.6%

Aces / Match2.8+2.35.1

Double Faults / Match1.42.1 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.6%+3.3pp37.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.7%+1.1pp39.6%

Break Pts Saved57.7%+4.2pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+3.1pp49.4%

Serve · 3–2

67.5%1st Serve In+10.0pp57.5%

68.9%1st Serve Won+0.8pp69.7%

55.8%2nd Serve Won+6.2pp49.6%

2.8Aces / Match+2.35.1

1.4Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

40.6%Return Pts Won+3.3pp37.3%

Pressure · 1–1

40.7%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp39.6%

57.7%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+3.1pp49.4%