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Katrina Scott #374United StatesRenata Zarazua #97Mexico

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 16:003 Nov, 16:00Indoor

1Probabilities1Priced1Edges70%Strongest

Strong lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRenata Zarazua · 277 places

Katrina Scott

United States

Scott is a 22-year-old American listed at No. 242 by the WTA in August 2026. Her WTA ranking history records a best year-end position of No. 149 in 2022; no reliable current availability concern was found.

Current ranking: #374
Peak ranking: #149
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Renata Zarazua

Mexico

A 28-year-old right-hander whose listed preferred surface is clay. She reached a career-high No. 51 on November 25, 2024; the official tournament profile listed her No. 83 on August 3, 2026.

Current ranking: #97
Peak ranking: #51 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 160 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 3 Nov 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

The ranking gap is wide, No.

97 Zarazua against No. 374 Scott, but Zarazua's recent wins came against opponents ranked No. 165, No. 354, No. 440 and No. 844, and Scott has lost her last two completed matches in straight sets. Zarazua should still come through. At 1.85 to win, she is the one worthwhile price.

Context

No sourced news, availability updates or head-to-head meetings were found, and the tournament court surface is not confirmed in the match brief, so the read rests on ranking and short recent samples.

Scott arrives after two straight-set defeats, the latest against an opponent far below her in the rankings.
That defeat followed a 1-6, 2-6 loss to No. 139 Tamara Zidansek on 27 October. Across her last 14 completed matches Scott is 5-9, and her only win in the six most recent listed came against No. 779 Alexandra Panova on 12 September. The sample is small, but it is the form she brings into this event.
- 1 November 2026: Scott lost 6-7, 4-6 to Maria Herazo (ranked No. 709) on clay.
- 27 October 2026: Scott lost 1-6, 2-6 to Tamara Zidansek (ranked No. 139) on clay.
- Scott's last 14 completed matches: 5 wins, 9 losses.
Zarazua is the higher-ranked player here, but her latest win came with an awkward patch.
The recovery against Reed shows Zarazua can turn a match around, but losing a set 0-6 to an opponent outside the top 800 is a caution about the level behind her recent results. She is ranked No. 97 and has won 7 of her last 13 completed matches, a better record than Scott's. Whether that translates against Scott, ranked No. 374, is the open question.
- 28 October 2026: Zarazua beat Lexington Reed (ranked No. 844) 0-6, 6-4, 6-4 on hard court.
- Zarazua's last 13 completed matches: 7 wins, 6 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Zarazua is the higher-ranked player with the better recent record, while Scott has lost her last two completed matches, both in straight sets on clay.
- Ranking: Zarazua 97, Scott 374
- Last 13 completed matches: Zarazua 7-6; Scott 5-9 in her last 14
- Scott's two most recent completed matches were straight-set losses on clay, including to world No. 709 Maria Herazo
- Zarazua's recent wins came against opponents ranked 844, 165, 440 and 354, with a straight-set loss to No. 174 Akasha Urhobo
BetBugs · Match WinnerRenata ZarazuaMarket price1.85Estimated chance70%

Katrina Scott

5W 10L

7-6(2) 6-4#709Maria Herazo

6-1 6-2#139Tamara Zidansek

7-6(1) 3-1 ret.#844Lexington Reed

7-6(6) 6-7(4) 6-2#243Carole Monnet

6-2 6-4#779Alexandra Panova

7-6(1) 6-1#183Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-1#192Katie Swan

6-2 6-1#194Yexin Ma

6-2 6-2#163Mai Hontama

6-2 6-1#105Anastasia Zakharova

6-4 6-3#111Elvina Kalieva

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#874Ellie Schoppe

6-1 6-1#896Sabastiani Leon

6-2 6-2#113Mary Stoiana

6-3 6-2#302Savannah Broadus

Renata Zarazua

9W 6L

7-6(3) 6-4#174Akasha Urhobo

5-7 7-6(3) 4-0 ret.#228Xinyu Gao

0-6 6-4 6-4#844Lexington Reed

6-1 6-3#103Kristina Liutova

6-1 6-3#165Yeon Woo Ku

6-3 6-2#440Thea Frodin

6-3 6-1#354Sofia Johnson

7-5 6-3#146Rebecca Sramkova

6-1 7-6(9)#229Katarina Zavatska

4-0 ret.#176Darya Astakhova

6-3 6-3#162Han Shi

6-1 6-3#2Aryna Sabalenka

7-6(4) 6-3#76Anna Bondar

2-6 6-3 6-1#76Anna Bondar

6-1 3-6 6-3#172Caroline Dolehide

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKatrina ScottScott

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Renata ZarazuaZarazuaRZ

Renata Zarazua carries the stronger recent form — Katrina Scott's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.5%+7.2pp72.7%

1st Serve Won61.0%+2.1pp58.9%

2nd Serve Won43.8%—44.3%

Aces / Match2.6+2.20.4

Double Faults / Match2.31.0 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.1%+6.7pp46.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.6%+14.8pp60.4%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+5.6pp50.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.8%+3.2pp51.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.5%1st Serve In+7.2pp72.7%

61.0%1st Serve Won+2.1pp58.9%

43.8%2nd Serve Won—44.3%

2.6Aces / Match+2.20.4

2.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

40.1%Return Pts Won+6.7pp46.8%

Pressure · 1–1

45.6%Break Pts Converted+14.8pp60.4%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp50.9%

Points · 0–1

47.8%Total Pts Won+3.2pp51.0%