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Harold Mayot #233FrancePetr Bar Biryukov #331Russia

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 04:003 Nov, 04:00First RoundI.hard

8Probabilities1Priced3Edges68%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 98 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #331
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 2 Nov 2026, 06:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayot's fast starts meet Biryukov's habit of dragging matches into a third set.

Mayot, ranked 233 to 331, is the likelier winner, but 1.18 on him asks for far more than the case supports, and 1.25 on the opening set is shorter still. Two prices carry a case: Biryukov at 4.25 to win, and 8.00 on him taking it 2-1.

Context

No head-to-head and no reported availability concerns, with both players arriving from Ningbo. The sporting interest is the contrast between Mayot's first-set command and Biryukov's serve-and-grind profile.

Bar Biryukov's four Ningbo wins over named opponents came immediately before Taipei. The sequence supplies recent hard-court tournament context beyond a ranking comparison. The available account does not give match lengths or recovery details, so it does not establish an exceptional workload.
- The Ningbo sequence included wins over Broady, Cui, Sun and Pankin.
ReportedSources checked 2 Nov 2026, 06:26 · Europe/BucharestCourt Value Tenniscourtvaluetennis.com · 2 Nov 2026
Mayot is a right-hander ranked 233 whose recent edge has been concentrated at the start of matches rather than across them.
Mayot's advantage in this matchup is front-loaded: 10-3 in first sets, averaging 5.5 games to 4.1, against Biryukov's 6-9 opening-set record. The gap narrows afterwards, with Mayot 6-7 in second sets and averaging 4.5 games to 5.0. If the early lead is not converted, the match can stretch.
- Set evidence covers Mayot's 13 completed hard-court best-of-three matches from 18 September to 30 October 2026; two retirements are excluded.
- Mayot won 10 first sets and lost 3, averaging 5.5 games won to 4.1 lost.
- In second sets he is 6-7, averaging 4.5 games won to 5.0 lost.
Biryukov is a left-hander ranked 331 whose recent hard-court numbers are built on a high-volume serve.
The serve is Biryukov's route into this match: 9.9 aces per match and 72.2% of first-serve points won over 15 hard-court matches to 1 November. The cost is a 60.2% first-serve rate and 5 double faults per match, which hands Mayot looks at second serves. Holding that standard through a tight set is the open question.
- The 15-match hard-court sample runs to 1 November 2026.
- Biryukov struck 149 aces in 15 matches (9.9 per match) and won 501 of 694 first-serve points (72.2%).
- He landed 694 of 1,153 first serves (60.2%) and made 75 double faults (5.0 per match).
Biryukov's recent hard-court results have repeatedly been settled in a deciding set rather than in straight sets.
Biryukov's 15-match hard-court sample averages 24.5 total games, against Mayot's 22.8 across 13. Five of his wins have come 2-1 and his last five matches all went to a deciding set, so a long match is familiar territory. Mayot's six 2-0 wins in 13 scorelines are the counterweight.
- Away set evidence covers 15 completed hard-court best-of-three matches from 18 September to 1 November 2026.
- Biryukov's scorelines are five 2-1 wins, three 2-0 wins, six 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss.
- Total games average 24.5, and five of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Harold Mayot

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

−15.0ppshort

Mayot has been much stronger at the start of matches in the available hard-court sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot has the higher ranking, the better recent win rate and a much stronger first-set record in the available hard-court sample.
- Mayot is 9-4 in 13 recent hard-court matches and is ranked 233.
- Biryukov is 8-7 in 15 recent hard-court matches and is ranked 331.
- Mayot's hard-court best-of-three set1 record is 10-3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerHarold MayotEstimated chance62%

Games3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set averages sit above the line, and Biryukov's tighter opening sets make at least 10 games common.
- Biryukov's first sets average 10.6 total games across 15 hard-court matches.
- Mayot's first sets average 9.6 total games across 13 hard-court matches.
- Biryukov has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's matches have regularly gone long, and a third set would make the higher total more likely.
- Biryukov's 15 hard-court matches average 24.5 total games.
- Mayot's 13 hard-court matches average 22.8 total games.
- Biryukov's last five matches all reached a third set.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average around the line, with Biryukov's tiebreak history slightly pushing toward 10 or more games.
- Mayot's second sets average 9.5 total games across 13 hard-court matches.
- Biryukov's second sets average 9.7 total games across 15 hard-court matches.
- Biryukov has three second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mayot has been much stronger at the start of matches in the available hard-court sample.
- Mayot is 10-3 in first sets across 13 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Mayot averages 5.5 first-set games won to 4.1 lost.
- Biryukov is 6-9 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerHarold MayotMarket price1.25Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's second-set record is only modest, but Biryukov's is weaker and Mayot has the better overall match record.
- Mayot is 6-7 in second sets across 13 hard-court matches.
- Biryukov is 6-9 in second sets across 15 hard-court matches.
- Mayot is 9-4 overall in that hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerHarold MayotEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's strong first-set play and Biryukov's many straight-set losses make a two-set finish slightly more likely.
- Mayot has six 2-0 wins in 13 scorelines.
- Biryukov has six 0-2 losses in 15 scorelines.
- Mayot's set1 record is 10-3 in 13 hard-court best-of-three matches.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 outcome · top 68%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's sets have rarely reached tiebreaks, and his first-set wins often come with a break.
- Mayot has two tiebreak matches in 13 hard-court matches.
- Mayot has no second-set tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
- Biryukov has five tiebreak matches in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#596Yaroslav Demin

6-2 6-3#420Kaichi Uchida

6-3 6-4#787Tianhui Zhang

7-6(5) 6-2#149Gabriel Diallo

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#134Clement Chidekh

6-4 2-6 6-4#141Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#419Niels Visker

6-3 7-5#72Titouan Droguet

5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#282Murphy Cassone

6-3 4-6 7-5#102Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-3#208Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#428Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#141Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#134Clement Chidekh

Petr Bar Biryukov

8W 7L

5-7 6-2 7-6(6)#596Yaroslav Demin 6-4 1-6 6-3#231Liam Broady 4-6 6-4 6-1#393Jie Cui

5-7 6-3 6-4#292Fajing Sun

6-7(1) 7-6(5) 6-4#432Semen Pankin

6-2 6-3#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-1 6-2#386Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(5)#761Yuta Tomida

6-2 6-4—Maksim Shin

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

7-5 6-4#433Masamichi Imamura

6-4 6-4#130Alexandre Muller

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#199Andre Ilagan

7-5 6-3#223Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#408Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Petr Bar BiryukovBiryukovPB

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Petr Bar Biryukov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In71.3%+11.1pp60.2%

1st Serve Won70.9%+1.3pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+1.0pp52.1%

Aces / Match4.2+5.79.9

Double Faults / Match1.13.9 fewer5.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.1%+8.2pp30.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.5%+9.9pp30.6%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+5.8pp61.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+3.2pp48.3%

Serve · 2–3

71.3%1st Serve In+11.1pp60.2%

70.9%1st Serve Won+1.3pp72.2%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp52.1%

4.2Aces / Match+5.79.9

1.1Double Faults / Match3.9 fewer5.0

Return · 1–0

39.1%Return Pts Won+8.2pp30.9%

Pressure · 1–1

40.5%Break Pts Converted+9.9pp30.6%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+5.8pp61.6%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+3.2pp48.3%

Harold Mayot

Petr Bar Biryukov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Petr Bar Biryukov

Petr Bar Biryukov 2-1

Harold Mayot

Result1 outcome · top 62%

Games3 outcomes · top 60%

Sets3 outcomes · top 65%

Match stats1 outcome · top 68%

Harold Mayot

Petr Bar Biryukov

Stat Battle