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Federico Coria #834ArgentinaIvan DreycoppArgentina

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 22:003 Nov, 22:00First RoundClay

9Probabilities4Priced4Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Federico Coria

Argentina

Reached a career-high No. 49 on 13 February 2023. Official player profiles list clay as his preferred surface; the supplied current ranking is No. 839.

Current ranking: #834
Peak ranking: #49 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ivan Dreycopp

Argentina

Listed preferred surface: clay. Other display profile information is unavailable in the supplied data.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 3 Nov 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

An unranked opponent against a veteran ranked 834 and sliding on clay is the tension at Villa Maria.

Ivan Dreycopp has won seven of his last ten clay matches, Federico Coria two of ten. Dreycopp at 3.3 to win, 2.9 for the first set, 3.0 for the second and 6.0 for a 2-0 win are worthwhile at those prices; Coria at 1.29 is not.

Context

A clay first round between a veteran ranked 834 and an unranked opponent, with no availability or research news; the sporting picture rests almost entirely on a form contrast built from ten-match samples.

Dreycopp's clay wins through late October and early November have tended to close out in straight sets.
Six of Dreycopp's ten clay scorelines finished 2-0, so the second set has been the stronger half of his recent work rather than a let-down. If he takes the opener here, that pattern says the match may not lengthen. The counterweight is sample size: ten matches is a short run, and three of his clay defeats did go to a third set.
- Set records over 10 clay matches, 25 Aug–2 Nov 2026: first set 7 wins, 3 losses; second set 9 wins, 1 loss.
- Second sets averaged 6.0 games won to 2.4 games lost across those 10 matches.
- Scorelines: 2-0 in six matches, 2-1 in one, 1-2 in three.
Coria's clay record is the weakest part of this matchup: seven 0-2 scorelines in ten completed matches, the latest a 5-7, 2-6 loss to world No. 75 Camilo Ugo Carabelli on 27 October. He also lost to players ranked 115, 355 and 369 in that stretch, so the damage is not confined to top opposition. Two retirements were excluded from the ten-match sample, and a run of this length still deserves caution.
- Clay record 2-8 across 10 completed matches, 11 Jun–27 Oct 2026; two retirements excluded.
- Scorelines in that sample: 0-2 in seven, 1-2 in one, 2-1 in one, 2-0 in one.
- Most recent match: 5-7, 2-6 loss to Camilo Ugo Carabelli (No. 75) on 27 Oct 2026.
First sets have not run away from Coria: 11.0 games on average across ten clay matches, four of them reaching a tiebreak. That is why an early Dreycopp lead is not the same as a quick first set, and why the opening set has been the more competitive part of Coria's recent matches. His second sets, by contrast, averaged only 3.5 games won to 5.7 lost.
- First sets across 10 clay matches, 11 Jun–27 Oct 2026: 4.9 games won to 6.1 lost, 11.0 total games on average.
- Four of those ten clay matches included a first-set tiebreak.
- Second sets in the same sample: 3.5 games won to 5.7 lost, 9.2 total games on average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 3.30
The read
Dreycopp is winning regularly on clay this autumn while Coria has been losing to far lower-ranked opponents and has far less recent success on the surface.
- Dreycopp is 7-3 on clay in his last 10, Coria is 2-8
- Dreycopp won 53.3% of clay points; 67% of first-serve points
- Coria has one win in his last six completed matches, losing to players ranked 75, 115, 355 and 369
- Dreycopp won two straight-set matches at this venue on 1 and 2 November
BetBugs · Match WinnerIvan DreycoppMarket price3.30Estimated chance76%

Games3 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets on clay have averaged comfortably above ten games, helped by Coria's habit of taking sets to tiebreaks.
- Coria's clay first sets average 11.0 total games
- Dreycopp's clay first sets average 10.5 total games
- Coria has four first-set tiebreaks in ten clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Dreycopp carries his second-set dominance into this match, the set should finish inside nine and a half games.
- Dreycopp's clay second sets average 8.4 total games
- Dreycopp won second sets 6-2, 6-1 and 6-1 in his last three clay wins
- Coria averages only 3.5 games won in second sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches sit almost exactly on the 22.5 line, with Coria's defeats often stretching to double-figure game counts.
- Coria's clay matches averaged 22.3 total games
- Dreycopp's clay matches averaged 23.3 total games
- Coria's last four clay matches produced 20, 23, 22 and 34 games
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Dreycopp's second sets on clay have been dominant, while Coria has usually been well beaten by that stage.
- Dreycopp won the second set in 9 of 10 clay matches
- Coria won the second set in 2 of 10 clay matches
- Dreycopp averages 6.0 games to 2.4 in second sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerIvan DreycoppMarket price3.00Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Dreycopp has started clay matches strongly this autumn while Coria has been behind after the opening set in eight of ten.
- Dreycopp won the first set in 7 of 10 clay matches
- Coria won the first set in only 2 of 10 clay matches
- Dreycopp averages 5.8 games to 4.7 in first sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerIvan DreycoppMarket price2.90Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Dreycopp's recent clay wins have finished in straight sets, and Coria has been losing in straight sets regularly.
- Dreycopp's clay matches averaged 2.4 sets
- Coria's clay matches averaged 2.2 sets
- Six of Dreycopp's ten clay scorelines were 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 6.00
The read
Both players' recent clay scorelines point strongly toward straight-set wins for Dreycopp.
- Six of Dreycopp's ten clay scorelines were 2-0 wins
- Coria has lost 0-2 in seven of his ten clay matches
- Dreycopp won his two matches at this venue 2-0
BetBugs · Set BettingIvan Dreycopp 2-0Market price6.00Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 outcome · top 60%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent clay matches finished without a tiebreak, and Dreycopp's wins tend to be one-sided.
- Dreycopp had a tiebreak in only 3 of 10 clay matches
- Coria's clay matches average 2.2 sets
- Dreycopp's straight-set wins included several 6-1 and 6-2 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Federico Coria

4W 11L

7-5 6-2#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(4) 6-4#115Nicolas Mejia

6-4 7-5#355Eduardo Ribeiro

6-7(3) 6-3 7-5#369Lucio Ratti

6-2 6-2#134Clement Chidekh

6-4 6-2#323Francesco Forti

7-6(5) 6-2#170Vitaliy Sachko

6-0 6-2#177Taro Daniel

2-6 6-2 6-3#316Guy Den Ouden

7-6(4) 1-0 ret.#448Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-3 6-4#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(5) 6-2#662Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#333Nicolas Kicker

7-5 3-0 ret.#333Nicolas Kicker

7-6(5) 7-5#475Andrea Collarini

Ivan Dreycopp

11W 4L

6-4 6-2#789Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto 6-4 6-1#862Fermin Tenti

6-3 4-6 6-3#497Juan Alejandro Hernandez

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 7-6(5)#705Matteo Covato

6-3 6-2—Valentino Grippo

6-3 6-1—Jose Luis Claro

6-1 6-0—Julian Fernando Perez

7-5 2-6 6-3#584Juan Sebastian Gomez

6-7(3) 6-4 6-1#837Lorenzo Gagliardo

5-7 6-1 6-1#829Benjamin Torrealba

6-4 6-4—Vicente Jose Benitez

6-2 6-2—Tobia Grandinetti

6-2 6-2—Lorenzo March

7-6(3) 1-6 7-6(3)#1664Julian Cundom

7-6(4) 6-4—Santiago Pedro Franchini

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFederico CoriaCoria

Last 15

0–7

9 core stats · 2 even

Ivan DreycoppDreycoppID

Ivan Dreycopp carries the stronger recent form — Federico Coria's route runs through break pts converted.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1563.7%+7.8pp71.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1564.0%+5.5pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1545.0%+12.4pp57.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/152.4+1.03.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.00.5 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1535.6%+6.8pp42.4%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1544.1%—43.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1556.1%—56.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1546.8%+6.9pp53.7%

Serve · 0–5

63.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+7.8pp71.5%

64.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+5.5pp69.5%

45.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+12.4pp57.4%

2.4Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+1.03.4

3.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.5 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

35.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+6.8pp42.4%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

44.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15—43.8%

56.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15—56.7%

Points · 0–1

46.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+6.9pp53.7%

Federico Coria

Ivan Dreycopp

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ivan Dreycopp

Ivan Dreycopp

Ivan Dreycopp

Ivan Dreycopp 2-0

Result1 outcome · top 76%

Games3 outcomes · top 62%

Sets4 outcomes · top 76%

Match stats1 outcome · top 60%

Federico Coria

Ivan Dreycopp

Stat Battle