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Aidan Mayo #321United StatesPetr Nesterov #285

Tue 3 Nov 2026, 16:303 Nov, 16:30Indoor

3Probabilities0Priced1Edges62%Strongest

LeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Nesterov · 36 places

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Petr Nesterov

Born 7 March 2003 and right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Public profile results identify a recent career-best singles ranking of No. 365; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury-trajectory detail was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #365
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 3 Nov 2026, 06:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayo, ranked 321, has the serve (76.9% of first-serve points across 15 matches) and the recent indoor hard results, five wins in six, to be the likelier winner, but 1.33 asks for a 75.2% chance and about 62% is as far as the case goes.

Nesterov at 3 is the only price offering anything: 38% against 33.3% implied, a slim +4.7-point edge, with his October gap the risk.

Context

Mayo has played six listed matches between 27 October and 2 November; Nesterov's last listed match came in October qualifying, so the two arrive with very different recent workloads. No confirmed fitness or availability information was found for either player.

Mayo's serve has been the steadiest part of a 10-5 run over his last 15 matches.
The 76.9% first-serve points won is the number that holds Mayo's recent record together, and it gives him a plausible route to repeated service holds. The caveat sits in the 72.2% break-point save rate: it is solid but not impregnable, so the margin may come down to how he backs up the first serve on the few break points he faces.
- Last 15 matches, latest 2 November: 76.9% of first-serve points won (494 of 642).
- Same 15-match sample: 72.2% of break points saved (57 of 79), with 10 wins and 5 losses.
- Averages across the sample: 6.9 aces and 3.9 double faults per match.
Nesterov's return and break-point numbers are the strongest part of his 15-match record.
Break-point conversion is where Nesterov can hurt Mayo: 44.5% taken against Mayo's 35.3%. His 59.3% break-point save rate is the softer side of his game, so his path runs through converting the few openings he creates rather than through dominating his own service games.
- Last 15 matches: 41.8% of return points won (472 of 1130).
- Same sample: 44.5% of break points converted (53 of 119).
- Break points saved: 59.3% (64 of 108); record 8 wins, 7 losses.
Mayo's 6-4, 6-4 qualifying win over Chan is immediate event-specific context ahead of this match. It establishes his route into the main draw and adds a current tournament result beyond the broader form record. The result does not disclose match duration or any physical issue, so it does not support an availability inference.
- Mayo beat Chan 6-4, 6-4 in Charlottesville qualifying.
ReportedSources checked 3 Nov 2026, 06:02 · Europe/BucharestCourt Value Tennis match previewcourtvaluetennis.com · 2 Nov 2026
Nesterov's last verified match before Charlottesville was the 6-2, 6-1 loss to Langmo in Olbia qualifying on 12 October. That places a documented gap between his last listed competitive appearance and this opening-round match. No retirement, walkover or medical issue is described, so the result should not be read as an availability concern.
- Nesterov lost 6-2, 6-1 to Langmo in Olbia qualifying on 12 October.
ReportedSources checked 3 Nov 2026, 06:02 · Europe/BucharestCourt Value Tennis match previewcourtvaluetennis.com · 2 Nov 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's stronger serve and better recent form give him the clearer path to a straight-set or three-set win.
- Mayo is 10-5 over his last 15 matches; Nesterov is 8-7.
- Mayo wins 76.9% of first-serve points compared with Nesterov's 70.1%.
- Mayo has won five of his last six matches, all on indoor hard; Nesterov has not played since 11 October and lost that match in straight sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerAidan MayoEstimated chance62%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 53%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate is just under the line, so a shorter match favors the under.
- Mayo averages 6.9 aces per match; Nesterov averages 4.3.
- Their combined average is 11.2, slightly below 11.5.
- Mayo's recent wins have mostly been in straight sets, limiting extra service games.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined rate is close enough to the line that a shorter match makes the under slightly more likely.
- Mayo averages 3.9 double faults per match; Nesterov averages 2.7.
- Their combined average is 6.6, only just above the 6.5 line.
- Mayo's last six matches include four straight-set wins, which can shorten the match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 6.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Aidan Mayo

10W 5L

6-4 6-2#422Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-4#467Duncan Chan 6-4 6-2#254Dylan Dietrich 6-3 6-4#316Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-7(4) 7-5#213Maks Kasnikowski

6-2 6-3#275Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 0-6 7-6(5)#396Sander Jong

1-6 6-0 7-5#535Kaylan Bigun

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#218Colton Smith

7-6(7) 7-5#308Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 7-6(8)#218Colton Smith

6-4 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-4#402Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2—Jordan Lee

1-6 6-4 6-4#568Ryan Seggerman

Petr Nesterov

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#514Christian Langmo

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#140Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 7-6(4)#750Carles Hernandez

3-6 6-4 6-1#275Hynek Barton

3-6 6-3 6-2—Charles Chen

7-5 1-6 6-4#585Goncalo Marques

6-4 6-2#337Marko Topo

6-4 4-6 6-3#614Giorgio Tabacco

6-4 1-6 6-0#457Carlos Taberner

7-6(6) 3-6 6-4#526Yanaki Milev

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#537Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-1 7-6(5)#390Gabriele Piraino

7-5 6-3#277Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#605Adrian Andreev

6-4 7-6(5)#387Sebastian Sorger

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAidan MayoMayo

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Petr NesterovNesterovPN

Aidan Mayo carries the stronger recent form — Petr Nesterov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.1%+2.2pp61.3%

1st Serve Won76.9%+6.8pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won51.9%+3.7pp48.2%

Aces / Match6.9+2.64.3

Double Faults / Match3.91.2 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+3.0pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.3%+9.2pp44.5%

Break Pts Saved72.2%+12.9pp59.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+1.0pp51.5%

Serve · 3–2

59.1%1st Serve In+2.2pp61.3%

76.9%1st Serve Won+6.8pp70.1%

51.9%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp48.2%

6.9Aces / Match+2.64.3

3.9Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+3.0pp41.8%

Pressure · 1–1

35.3%Break Pts Converted+9.2pp44.5%

72.2%Break Pts Saved+12.9pp59.3%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.5%