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Venus Williams #599United StatesMary Stoiana #113United States

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 03:002 Nov, 03:00First RoundHard

12Probabilities6Priced6Edges88%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMary Stoiana · 486 places

Venus Williams

United States

Williams reached world No. 1 in singles in February 2002. Official ITF data lists hard courts as her preferred surface; the supplied structured feed lists her current ranking at No. 667.

Current ranking: #599
Peak ranking: #1 · 2002
Current age: 46
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Mary Stoiana

United States

Limited reliable public profile information was found. Use the structured ranking and form data as the main current context.

Current ranking: #113
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Venus Williams is winless in 15 tracked matches and 0-13 on hard courts; Mary Stoiana is 10-5 on the surface and has taken 10 of 15 first sets.

Stoiana winning in straight sets is the likeliest shape, and the price at 1.44 on that scoreline is the one quoted selection that gives slightly more than the form demands. The price at 1.12 for the match and the line at 1.30 for under 2.5 sets ask for too much.

Context

A first-round match with a wide, well-documented form gap: one player is 0-13 on hard courts in the sample, the other 10-5, and straight-set results dominate both records.

The sample covers 15 matches and yields no wins, with 5 of 35 sets and 124 of 330 games going her way. Her second-serve points won sit at 37.1% (174 of 469) and she has converted 39.7% of break points (29 of 73). Whatever the opposition, the starting point is a player losing close to two of every three games.
- 0 wins and 15 losses across 15 tracked matches.
- 14.3% of sets won (5 of 35) and 37.6% of games won (124 of 330).
- Second-serve points won 37.1% (174 of 469); break points converted 39.7% (29 of 73).
Those 15 matches average 21.8 total games and 2.27 sets. The first set has been her stronger end at 10-5, with 5.2 games won and 4.33 lost; the second set is far closer at 8-7. Seven 2-0 wins against four 0-2 defeats show that her matches tend to settle quickly rather than swing back and forth.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked from 26 August to 23 October 2026.
- Scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.
- First sets 10-5 with 5.2 games won and 4.33 lost; second sets 8-7; average 21.8 total games.
The hard-court sample is 13 matches with nine 0-2 losses and four 1-2 losses. The opening set has been the weakest part at 1-12, with 3.62 games won against 6.08 lost per set, while the second set is slightly better at 3-10 and 3.77 games won. She has rarely been level early in these matches, and her better tennis has come after the first set has already gone.
- 13 hard-court matches from 7 August 2025 to 27 October 2026: nine 0-2 losses, four 1-2 losses.
- First sets 1-12 with 3.62 games won and 6.08 lost per set.
- Second sets 3-10 with 3.77 games won and 5.69 lost.
Stoiana had won four of the five matches listed before that defeat in this window. The scoreline is one match rather than a trend, and Siniakova is ranked 49 against Stoiana's 113. It does show that the floor of her recent form is a heavy, one-sided loss.
- 23 October 2026: lost 1-6 2-6 to Katerina Siniakova, 3 games to 12.
- Siniakova ranked 49; Stoiana ranked 113.
- Stoiana won four of the five other matches listed in her recent sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mary Stoiana

1.12fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 89.3%

−1.3ppshort

Stoiana has the far stronger current hard-court record and much better set and game percentages, while Venus has not won a match in the sample.

Set 2 WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mary Stoiana

1.18fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 84.7%

−2.7ppshort

Stoiana has the better second-set record, though her edge is smaller than in first sets.

Total SetsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 76.9%

−0.9ppshort

Straight-set results are the most common outcome for both players in the hard-court sample.

Game HandicapUncertainty band: Lean

Mary Stoiana -4.5

1.44fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69.4%

−6.4ppshort

Venus's recent hard losses have usually been by five or more games, which supports Stoiana covering -4.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 88%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Stoiana has the far stronger current hard-court record and much better set and game percentages, while Venus has not won a match in the sample.
- Stoiana is 10-5 on hard in this sample; Venus is 0-13 on hard.
- Stoiana has won 61.8% of sets and 52.9% of games on hard.
- Venus has won 14.3% of sets and 37.6% of games overall in the last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerMary StoianaMarket price1.12Estimated chance88%

Games4 outcomes · top 63%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Venus's recent hard losses have usually been by five or more games, which supports Stoiana covering -4.5.
- Venus has lost her last five hard matches by game margins of 8, 5, 8, 7 and 6.
- Venus has won 37.0% of games on hard this sample.
- Stoiana's recent hard wins include margins of +7, +4 and +4 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapMary Stoiana -4.5Market price1.44Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stoiana's first-set wins often come with a break margin that keeps the set under 10 games.
- Stoiana's first sets average 9.53 total games, with 10 wins and 5 losses.
- Venus's first sets average 9.69 total games but she wins only 1 of 13.
- A 6-2 or 6-3 first set for Stoiana stays under the line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Venus's recent hard losses have often stayed below 20.5 games, and a straight-set Stoiana win can be quick.
- Venus's hard matches average 21.6 total games; Stoiana's average 21.8.
- Venus's last five hard matches totaled 16, 21, 16, 17 and 18 games.
- Stoiana's last six hard matches totaled 15, 25, 17, 22, 22 and 24 games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets are near the line, but Venus's frequent second-set losses can produce quick finishes.
- Stoiana's second sets average 9.8 total games; Venus's average 9.46.
- Venus has lost 10 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Stoiana has won 8 of 15 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets4 outcomes · top 86%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Stoiana starts sets much better in the sample, while Venus has lost 12 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Stoiana has won 10 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Venus has won 1 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Stoiana averages 5.2 games won and 4.3 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerMary StoianaMarket price1.18Estimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Stoiana has the better second-set record, though her edge is smaller than in first sets.
- Stoiana has won 8 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Venus has won 3 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Stoiana's second-set game margin is close, 4.93 won to 4.87 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerMary StoianaMarket price1.18Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Straight-set results are the most common outcome for both players in the hard-court sample.
- Stoiana's hard scorelines include seven 2-0 and three 2-1 wins, plus four 0-2 and one 1-2.
- Venus's hard scorelines are nine 0-2 and four 1-2.
- Average sets: Venus 2.31, Stoiana 2.27.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.30Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Stoiana is much more likely to win and Venus has rarely won a set, so a straight-set Stoiana win is the strongest exact score.
- Stoiana's 15 hard matches include seven 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- Venus's 13 hard matches include nine 0-2 losses and four 1-2 losses.
- Venus has won only about 7.4 games per match across her hard set evidence.
BetBugs · Set BettingMary Stoiana 2-0Market price1.44Estimated chance72%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' hard matches do not contain a tiebreak, and Venus's sets often end with a break margin.
- Only 3 of Venus's 13 hard matches and 4 of Stoiana's 15 had a tiebreak.
- Venus has lost 12 of 13 first sets and 10 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Stoiana's hard matches average 21.8 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stoiana's low ace rate and the likely short match keep the total under 4.5.
- Combined current-hard ace average is 4.0 per match.
- Stoiana averages only 1.1 aces per hard match.
- Venus averages 2.9 aces per hard match.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The total sits just under the line, and a likely short match reduces the chance of reaching nine.
- Combined current-hard double-fault average is about 8.4 per match.
- Stoiana has 58 double faults in 15 hard matches, under four per match.
- Venus's 59 double faults in 13 hard matches is 4.5 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Venus Williams

0W 15L

6-2 6-2#53Lilli Tagger

6-2 7-6(6)#187Sofia Kenin

6-2 6-2#157Emiliana Arango

6-4 6-1#66Kamilla Rakhimova

6-3 6-3#27Anastasia Potapova

6-2 4-6 7-6(6)#452Irina-Camelia Begu

6-2 6-4#86Kaitlin Quevedo

7-5 7-5#98Francesca Jones

6-3 6-7(4) 6-1#34Diane Parry

6-4 6-1#134Ajla Tomljanovic

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#400Olga Danilovic

6-4 6-3#70Tatjana Maria

6-4 4-6 6-2#71Magda Linette

6-3 2-6 6-1#7Karolina Muchova

6-4 6-4#96Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Mary Stoiana

10W 5L

6-1 6-2#49Katerina Siniakova

6-2 2-6 6-3#121Moyuka Uchijima

6-2 6-3#62Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-4 7-5#556Sayaka Ishii

6-3 7-6(1)#422Rinko Matsuda

7-5 7-5#235Julieta Pareja

6-3 6-4#297Hanna Chang

6-4 6-2#61Paula Badosa Gibert

7-6(5) 6-1#108Dominika Salkova

6-3 7-5#109Claire Liu

4-6 7-6(7) 6-3#140Julia Riera

6-3 6-2#173Jazmin Ortenzi

6-1 6-2#19Alexandra Eala

6-3 4-6 6-4#170Yue Yuan

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#192Katie Swan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

VWVenus WilliamsWilliams

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Mary StoianaStoianaMS

Mary Stoiana carries the stronger recent form — Venus Williams's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.8%+2.4pp61.2%

1st Serve Won64.9%+5.9pp59.0%

2nd Serve Won37.1%+11.2pp48.3%

Aces / Match3.0+1.91.1

Double Faults / Match4.91.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.1%+11.3pp47.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.7%+6.4pp46.1%

Break Pts Saved54.3%+0.9pp53.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won45.2%+5.9pp51.1%

Serve · 2–3

58.8%1st Serve In+2.4pp61.2%

64.9%1st Serve Won+5.9pp59.0%

37.1%2nd Serve Won+11.2pp48.3%

3.0Aces / Match+1.91.1

4.9Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won+11.3pp47.4%

Pressure · 1–1

39.7%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp46.1%

54.3%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp53.4%

Points · 0–1

45.2%Total Pts Won+5.9pp51.1%

Venus Williams

Mary Stoiana

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mary Stoiana

Mary Stoiana 2-0

Mary Stoiana

Mary Stoiana

Under 2.5

Mary Stoiana -4.5

Result1 outcome · top 88%

Games4 outcomes · top 63%

Sets4 outcomes · top 86%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 76%

Markets to Avoid

Mary Stoiana

Venus Williams

Venus Williams

Mary Stoiana

Stat Battle