JapanHamamatsuLive

Koharu ItoJapanKanna SoedaJapan

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 03:002 Nov, 03:00LiveQ3Carpet

4Probabilities0Priced0Edges75%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Koharu Ito

Japan

Reliable public profile information was unavailable in this research run.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Kanna Soeda

Japan

Reliable public profile information was unavailable in this research run.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 23:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Kanna Soeda's two carpet wins on 1 November give her a narrow edge over Koharu Ito, whose 6-1 6-1 win ended a run of five straight defeats in the tracked sample.

Soeda to win, most likely in straight sets with no tiebreak, is the lean. No quoted price was part of this review, so there is nothing here to call value.

Context

No current news, injury or head-to-head evidence was supplied; the only meaningful separation comes from short carpet form and set-level scoring patterns.

Ito's recent results have been either emphatic wins or heavy defeats, with little in between.
The 12-2 game count against Nakao shows Ito can close out a match quickly when she gets ahead on carpet. It is the lone bright result in her listed run, though, and the five defeats around it include a 0-6 0-6 loss, so the win reads as a flash of form rather than a established level.
- 1 November 2026: Ito beat Kokoa Nakao 6-1 6-1 on carpet, 12-2 in games.
- Ito's tracked overall window reads 3-6 over nine matches; this is her only win among the six most recent matches listed.
Ito's carpet matches have been short, with the scoreline rarely extending beyond two sets.
The six-match sample splits 3-3 in sets and 2-0 three times against 0-2 three times, so the pattern is about match length rather than who wins. Average games sit at 15.5, and none of the six reached a tiebreak. That points toward a quick, decisive contest here, while noting the sample is small and drawn from a limited period.
- Six completed carpet best-of-three matches between 12 May 2025 and 1 November 2026, scorelines 2-0 three times and 0-2 three times.
- Average total games per match 15.5; zero tiebreaks across the six matches; average total sets 2.0.
Soeda's carpet evidence is a two-match sample from a single day, so it describes a hot start rather than a settled surface record.
The recovery from a 1-6 first set shows she stayed in a match that was getting away from her, and the 17-15 game count was tight throughout. Because the third set was a match tiebreak, it does not count as a completed standard set score and is excluded from her carpet set sample, which stands at one match. Her dual 1 November wins are encouraging but very recent.
- 1 November 2026: Soeda beat Moka Ito 1-6 6-4 10-5 on carpet, 17-15 in games; the third set was a match tiebreak.
- Her completed carpet set-evidence sample is a single match, reflecting the exclusion of that match-tiebreak finish.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 54%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Soeda's current carpet form and two latest wins give her a small advantage over Ito's more mixed recent results.
- Kanna Soeda is 2-0 on carpet and won both matches on 1 November.
- Soeda's one completed carpet best-of-three match was a 6-3 6-2 win.
- Koharu Ito is 3-4 on carpet and 3-6 overall in her recent sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerKanna SoedaEstimated chance54%

Games1 outcome · top 54%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ito's carpet matches have generally been short and often one-sided, which makes the lower side of this line slightly more likely.
- Ito's six completed carpet matches average 15.5 total games.
- Five of Ito's last six completed matches had 16 or fewer total games.
- Soeda's one completed carpet set-evidence match had 17 total games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 16.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 outcome · top 64%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The completed carpet set evidence strongly favors a straight-set finish, especially in Ito's six matches.
- Ito's six completed carpet best-of-three matches were all straight-set finishes.
- Soeda's one completed carpet set-evidence match was a 6-3 6-2 straight-set win.
- Ito's average total sets on carpet is 2.0.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%

Match stats1 outcome · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Completed carpet set evidence shows no 6-6 tiebreak sets, and most games are decided before that point.
- Ito's six completed carpet set-evidence matches had zero tiebreaks.
- Soeda's one completed carpet set-evidence match had zero tiebreaks.
- Both players' completed carpet set samples average fewer than 17 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance75%

Koharu Ito

4W 7L

6-1 6-1—Kokoa Nakao

4-6 6-1 ret.—Honori Koyama

6-0 6-1#787Himari Sato

6-0 7-5—Koharu Niimi

6-0 6-3—Amane Hattori

6-2 6-2#854Funa Kozaki

6-0 6-0—Rio Tsuda

1-0 ret.—Aoi Ide

6-2 6-1#886Yuka Hosoki

7-5 6-3—Minori Yamataka

6-3 3-6 10-6#603Kisa Yoshioka

Kanna Soeda

6W 9L

1-6 6-4 10-5—Moka Ito

6-3 6-2—Minori Natsuka

6-1 6-2#600Yuhan Wang

4-6 6-3 10-1—Jiayu Xu

6-1 6-4—Jiayue Pan

7-5 6-4—Albina Kakenova

6-1 6-1—Ziqian Zhu

6-4 6-2#738Xi Luo

6-3 6-2—Guyun Yuchi

7-5 2-0 ret.—Ha Yoon Son

5-7 6-1 10-7—Ying Xue

6-1 6-2—Eunji Lee

6-2 7-6(7)—Soo Young Choi

6-4 6-2—Gio Jang

6-4 6-3—Kurumi Tamura

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KIKoharu ItoIto

Last 15 · 11 vs 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Kanna SoedaSoedaKS

Kanna Soeda carries the stronger recent form — Koharu Ito's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In5/11 · 5/1555.9%+6.8pp62.7%

1st Serve Won5/11 · 5/1551.7%+2.8pp54.5%

2nd Serve Won5/11 · 5/1539.8%+2.5pp37.3%

Aces / Match5/11 · 5/150.4+0.40.0

Double Faults / Match5/11 · 5/153.82.4 fewer6.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won5/11 · 5/1547.2%+1.0pp48.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted5/11 · 5/1550.0%+8.5pp58.5%

Break Pts Saved5/11 · 5/1551.3%+4.5pp55.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won5/11 · 5/1546.8%+1.4pp48.2%

Serve · 3–2

55.9%1st Serve In5/11 · 5/15+6.8pp62.7%

51.7%1st Serve Won5/11 · 5/15+2.8pp54.5%

39.8%2nd Serve Won5/11 · 5/15+2.5pp37.3%

0.4Aces / Match5/11 · 5/15+0.40.0

3.8Double Faults / Match5/11 · 5/152.4 fewer6.2

Return · 0–1

47.2%Return Pts Won5/11 · 5/15+1.0pp48.2%

Pressure · 0–2

50.0%Break Pts Converted5/11 · 5/15+8.5pp58.5%

51.3%Break Pts Saved5/11 · 5/15+4.5pp55.8%

Points · 0–1

46.8%Total Pts Won5/11 · 5/15+1.4pp48.2%