BrazilCosta do Sauipe - BrazilUpcomingFeatured

Marcelo Zormann #894BrazilFilip Misolic #688Austria

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 22:001 Nov, 22:00Q1Clay

9Probabilities3Priced4Edges77%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Misolic · 206 places

Marcelo Zormann

Brazil

Listed at No. 894 with a hard-court preference.

Current ranking: #894
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #688
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 15:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Misolic holds the better clay record (8-6 against Zormann's 2-7) and is the likely winner, but the prices have run past that.

Misolic at 1.07 to win, 1.12 to take the first set or the second, and 1.3 to win 2-0 each demand more than his form supports. Zormann at 8.5 is the one quoted price that pays for the doubt.

Context

No news, availability or venue reporting was found for either player, so conditions are unremarkable. The assessment rests on clay set-by-set records across 9 matches for Zormann and 14 for Misolic, plus a ranking gap of roughly 200 places.

Zormann's clay sets have started heavily against him: eight first-set defeats in nine matches, with an average of under three games won in them.
The first set is Misolic's clearest edge on the clay evidence, with Zormann averaging 2.7 games to 5.7 against in opening sets. It is not a guarantee of a fast start, since Misolic has won only 8 of his 14 clay first sets, but an early Zormann lead would go against the whole sample.
- Zormann has won 1 of 9 first sets across nine completed clay matches from 22 October 2023 to 6 July 2026.
- He averages 2.7 games won and 5.7 games lost in first sets in that sample.
- He has won 3 of 9 second sets in the same nine matches.
Misolic's clay sample is short but consistent in shape: seven 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, and just two matches that went to a tiebreak.
That distribution supports a straight-set lean for Misolic, and Zormann's six 0-2 defeats in nine clay matches point the same way. The counterweight is that Zormann took his July win over Albot to a third set, so a competitive version of this match can run longer.
- Misolic's clay scorelines across 14 matches from 8 September to 26 October 2026: seven 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win and three 1-2 losses.
- Only two of those 14 matches contained a tiebreak.
- Misolic averages 5.2 games won and 3.1 games lost in second sets in that sample.
That Albot win is the strongest recent evidence Zormann has: a higher-ranked opponent beaten over three sets on clay after losing the opener.
It shows Zormann can still win a clay match against a better-ranked opponent, which is the counterargument to reading his 2-7 clay record as decisive. It is one result rather than a run, and the wider nine-match clay set record still leans heavily the other way.
- On 5 July 2026 Zormann beat Radu Albot, ranked 561, 2-6 6-1 6-4 on clay.
- It is one of only two wins in his nine tracked clay matches since 22 October 2023.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Filip Misolic

1.12fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 89.3%

−13.3ppshort

Misolic starts sets much more strongly, while Zormann has lost eight of nine first sets on clay.

Set 2 WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Filip Misolic

1.12fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 89.3%

−17.3ppshort

Misolic's second-set record is his strongest part of the clay sample, while Zormann is below even.

Set BettingUncertainty band: Lean

Filip Misolic 2-0

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

−16.9ppshort

Most of Misolic's clay wins have been straight-set and Zormann has often lost in two sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic has the stronger current clay record and much better first-set results, so he is the clear but not overwhelming favourite.
- Misolic is 8-6 on clay in the tracked sample; Zormann is 2-7.
- Misolic has won 8 of 14 first sets and 10 of 14 second sets on clay; Zormann has won 1 of 9 first sets.
- Misolic's latest six clay matches include four wins, while Zormann's latest completed match was in July 2026.
- Ranking: Misolic 688, Zormann 894.
BetBugs · Match WinnerFilip MisolicEstimated chance73%

Games3 outcomes · top 58%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zormann's low first-set game count and Misolic's 8-6 first-set record point to shorter sets.
- Misolic's first sets average 9.1 total games; Zormann's average 8.3.
- Zormann has lost eight of nine first sets and averages 2.7 games won.
- Misolic has won eight of 14 first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's second sets average only 8.4 games, and he often closes them quickly.
- Misolic's second sets average 8.4 total games; Zormann's average 9.3.
- Misolic has won 10 of 14 second sets on clay.
- Zormann averages 4.3 games won and 5.0 lost in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both clay averages are near 20 and many recent scorelines are straight sets.
- Zormann's clay matches average 20.2 total games; Misolic's average 20.0.
- Misolic has seven 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses in 14 clay matches.
- Zormann has six 0-2 losses in nine clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Misolic starts sets much more strongly, while Zormann has lost eight of nine first sets on clay.
- Misolic has won 8 of 14 first sets on clay; Zormann has won 1 of 9.
- Zormann averages 2.7 games won and 5.7 lost in first sets.
- Misolic averages 4.6 games won and 4.4 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerFilip MisolicMarket price1.12Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Misolic's second-set record is his strongest part of the clay sample, while Zormann is below even.
- Misolic has won 10 of 14 second sets on clay; Zormann has won 3 of 9.
- Misolic averages 5.2 games won and 3.1 lost in second sets.
- Zormann averages 4.3 games won and 5.0 lost in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerFilip MisolicMarket price1.12Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most tracked clay matches for both players have finished in two sets.
- Misolic has played two three-set matches in 14 clay matches; Zormann has played two in nine.
- Misolic has seven 2-0 wins in 14 clay matches.
- Zormann has six 0-2 losses in nine clay matches.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Most of Misolic's clay wins have been straight-set and Zormann has often lost in two sets.
- Misolic has seven 2-0 wins in 14 clay matches.
- Zormann has six 0-2 losses in nine clay matches.
- Misolic has won 10 of 14 second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set BettingFilip Misolic 2-0Market price1.30Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 outcome · top 77%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most tracked clay sets for both players have avoided tiebreaks.
- Misolic has had two tiebreaks in 14 clay matches; Zormann has had three in nine.
- Misolic's clay set scores include only two tiebreaks across 14 matches.
- Zormann's clay matches include three tiebreaks in nine.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance77%

Marcelo Zormann

3W 12L

6-2 6-2#686S D Prajwal Dev

2-6 6-1 6-4#561Radu Albot

6-3 7-6(9)#431Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

1-1 ret.#487Pedro Sakamoto

3-3 ret.#283Valerio Aboian

6-3 6-4—Victor Braga

6-3 2-6 7-6(3)#830Stijn Slump

6-1 6-1#95Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-2 6-2#695Wilson Leite

3-2 ret.#666Nicolas Zanellato

4-2 ret.#318Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 6-4#211Alex Barrena

6-4 6-4#197Gonzalo Bueno

6-4 6-2#676Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-3 7-6(1)#32Ignacio Buse

Filip Misolic

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#497Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-0 6-1—Martin Baquero

6-2 6-1#265Michele Ribecai

4-6 6-3 6-3#400Izan Almazan Valiente

7-6(5) 6-1#226Felix Gill

6-3 6-1#495Daniel Siniakov

6-2 6-2#844Dominik Recek

6-1 6-2#339Patrick Schoen

6-2 6-0—Tiago Esculcas

6-4 3-1 ret.#623Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#508Sebastian Gima

7-5 6-1#665Imanol Lopez Morillo

4-6 7-5 6-4#691Matyas Cerny

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#191Mika Brunold

6-4 6-0#310Henri Squire

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MZMarcelo ZormannZormann

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Filip MisolicMisolicFM

Filip Misolic carries the stronger recent form — Marcelo Zormann's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.0%+8.8pp54.2%

1st Serve Won65.1%+1.2pp66.3%

2nd Serve Won49.8%+0.9pp48.9%

Aces / Match1.5+1.73.2

Double Faults / Match1.90.9 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.8%+11.3pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.2%+3.6pp44.8%

Break Pts Saved47.8%+13.0pp60.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won46.7%+5.0pp51.7%

Serve · 3–2

63.0%1st Serve In+8.8pp54.2%

65.1%1st Serve Won+1.2pp66.3%

49.8%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp48.9%

1.5Aces / Match+1.73.2

1.9Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

33.8%Return Pts Won+11.3pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–2

41.2%Break Pts Converted+3.6pp44.8%

47.8%Break Pts Saved+13.0pp60.8%

Points · 0–1

46.7%Total Pts Won+5.0pp51.7%