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Predictions graded

Ilinca Dalina Amariei #551Romania2Angelica SaraItaly0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Sun 1 Nov 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ilinca Dalina Amariei

Romania

Romanian, ranked No. 649 and the lower-ranked player in this matchup. Her tracked recent sample of 15 matches has been entirely on clay, with 11 wins. Age, handedness and career-high ranking are not reliably established from the available data.

Current ranking: #551
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Angelica Sara

Italy

Available profile data lists hard as her preferred surface. Other reliable biographical details are not established in the available data.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 08:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Amariei's clay form makes her the likely winner of this qualifying match, but the 1.06 on her asks for about 94% and 10 wins from 13 does not stretch that far.

Sara is unranked and was beaten 2-6 0-6 on 7 October, yet she is 5-4 on clay this autumn, and at 10 she is the one worthwhile price.

Context

That clay sample of 13 completed matches excludes two retirements.
The opening set is where her edge is sharpest, and it fits a habit of short days: nine of those 13 matches ended 2-0. Sara has lost the first set in four of seven clay matches in her own, smaller seven-match set sample. A quick start from Amariei would leave Sara chasing the match from the first changeover.
- 12-1 in first sets across 13 completed clay matches, 28 Aug–15 Oct 2026
- First-set games average 6.0 won against 2.9 lost
- Nine of 13 matches finished 2-0 in her favour; average 2.23 sets per match
Winning under half of all points makes it hard to hold serve regularly, and her 42.3% break-point save rate in those six matches points the same way. She converts 40.7% of her own break points, so the margins are tight on both sides. Against an opponent who has been winning two thirds of her clay matches, that leaves little cushion.
- 5-4 clay record across nine matches, latest 7 Oct 2026
- Total points won 47.6% (399 of 838) across six matches
- Break points saved 42.3% (22 of 52); break points converted 40.7% (22 of 54) across six matches
The opponent was ranked well outside the top 300, which makes the scoreline a real warning about Sara's level on the day. It followed a three-set win over Victoria Gomez on 6 October, so the week was not uniformly poor. The question for this match is which version shows up against a favourite who rarely gives away sets.
- 2-6 0-6 loss to Lucia Cortez Llorca (No. 392), 7 Oct 2026
- Two games won, 12 games lost
Her two defeats in this clay window came against ranked opposition at No. 173 and No. 213, so the gap to a strong opponent was narrow rather than wide. That cuts both ways here: it shows the 10-3 record was built largely against lower-ranked or unranked players. Sara is unranked, which places her on the side of the draw Amariei has been beating.
- 5-7 5-7 loss to Jazmin Ortenzi (No. 173), 8 Oct 2026
- 10 games won, 14 games lost

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Amariei has won five of her last six on clay and has been dominant in opening sets, while Sara has been outscored on the surface and was beaten heavily by a mid-ranked opponent last time out.
- Amariei 10-3 on clay in her last 13 completed matches; Sara 5-4 on clay in 9
- Amariei's clay set record: set one 12-1, set two 9-4
- Sara's clay total points won 47.6% and break points saved 42.3%
- Sara lost her most recent clay match 2-6 0-6 to world No. 392 Cortez Llorca
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlinca Dalina AmarieiEstimated chance73%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Amariei usually breaks early and closes first sets around 6-3, which lands under the line.
- Amariei's clay first sets average 6-2.9 games
- Sara's clay first sets average 4.57-4.57 games
- Amariei lost only one first set in 13 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for Amariei have been the tighter of the two but still mostly finish at nine games or fewer.
- Amariei's clay second sets average 5.23-3.54 games
- Sara's clay second sets average 4.71-5.00 games
- Two of Sara's seven clay matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches sit right on the line, so a normal-length two-setter with one close set pushes past it.
- Amariei's clay matches average 20.15 total games
- Sara's clay matches average 19.71 total games
- Amariei's two clay sets average 8.92 and 8.77 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Amariei's first sets have been near-automatic on clay this autumn, while Sara has been roughly even in opening sets and often has to come from behind.
- Amariei has won the opening set in 12 of 13 clay matches, averaging 6-2.9
- Sara has lost the first set in 4 of 7 clay matches
- Sara's set-one games average is 4.57 won against 4.57 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlinca Dalina AmarieiEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' clay records, with the strong majority of their matches ending in two sets.
- Only 3 of Amariei's 13 clay matches reached a third set
- 1 of Sara's 7 clay matches reached a third set
- Amariei's average match length is 2.23 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Amariei is still comfortably the stronger second-set performer on clay, though her edge there is smaller than in the opening set.
- Amariei has won the second set in 9 of 13 clay matches
- Sara has won 4 of 7 clay second sets but with 2 tiebreaks
- Sara's second-set games average is 4.71 won against 5.00 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIlinca Dalina AmarieiEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Amariei's clay record is built on straight-set wins, and Sara has been swept aside in straight sets several times on the surface.
- 9 of Amariei's 13 clay matches finished 2-0 in her favour
- Amariei's total sets average is 2.23 per match
- Sara has been beaten 0-2 in 3 of her 7 clay matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonIlinca Dalina Amariei 2-0Estimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' clay matches, and most sets here should be settled by a break.
- Only 1 of Amariei's 13 clay matches contained a tiebreak
- 2 of Sara's 7 clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Combined, both players average just over 2 sets per match
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance80%

Ilinca Dalina Amariei

10W 5L

7-6(6) ret.#218Angela Fita Boluda

6-3 6-2#838Maia Ilinca Burcescu

7-5 7-5#173Jazmin Ortenzi

6-1 6-1—Nikol Ivanova

6-1 6-0—Beatris Spasova

6-2 4-6 6-2—Alexia-Shara Iancu

1-6 6-1 7-5#213Ane Mintegi Del Olmo

6-1 7-5#269Ipek Oz

6-2 6-2#310Selena Janicijevic

7-6(3) 6-0#532Sarah Van Emst

6-4 6-2—Aleksandra Rangelova

1-0 ret.—Melis Rasim

4-6 6-2 7-5#825Ashley Lahey

6-2 7-5#856Georgia Andreea Craciun

6-4 6-4#717Teodora Miron

Angelica Sara

8W 7L

6-2 6-0#392Lucia Cortez Llorca

5-7 7-6(6) 6-0#812Victoria Gomez

6-4 7-6(4)—Laura Boehner

6-4 1-6 10-8#1256Isabel Adrover Gallego

6-4 4-6 6-1#898Federica Di Sarra

6-2 6-2—Marcella Dessolis

6-3 6-4—Kseniia Ruchkina

6-1 6-2#1058Min Liu

6-2 6-1#898Federica Di Sarra

6-1 6-2—Carolina Gasparini

6-3 6-2#266Jennifer Ruggeri

6-4 6-2—Giulia Paterno

6-2 6-4—Cristina Pescucci

6-1 6-7(5) 10-4#590Camilla Gennaro

6-1 6-4—Alessandra Pezzulla

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IAIlinca Dalina AmarieiAmariei

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Angelica SaraSaraAS

Ilinca Dalina Amariei carries the stronger recent form — Angelica Sara's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 12/1574.1%+15.7pp58.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/1559.3%+2.0pp57.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/1551.3%+4.7pp46.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 12/150.7+0.71.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/151.21.7 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/1552.6%+7.5pp45.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/1548.2%+0.9pp47.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/1554.8%+1.5pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/1554.8%+5.6pp49.2%

Serve · 4–1

74.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 12/15+15.7pp58.4%

59.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+2.0pp57.3%

51.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+4.7pp46.6%

0.7Aces / Match15/15 · 12/15+0.71.4

1.2Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/151.7 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

52.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+7.5pp45.1%

Pressure · 2–0

48.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/15+0.9pp47.3%

54.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/15+1.5pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+5.6pp49.2%