FranceBrest - FranceUpcomingFeatured

Martin Damm #105United StatesDino Prizmic #93Croatia

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 14:0031 Oct, 14:00Semi-FinalI.hard

7Probabilities2Priced2Edges62%Strongest

LeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDino Prizmic · 12 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Dino Prizmic

Croatia

Croatian, age 20, right-handed and 188 cm. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface; the current structured ranking is No. 98, with ATP event material listing a career-high No. 70.

Current ranking: #93
Peak ranking: #70
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 22:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Two in-form players meet for a place in the Brest final, with Prizmic's cleaner straight-set week set against Damm's stronger first-set record.

Prizmic is the narrow favourite to win the match, but his 1.73 match price is too short. The one quote with a potential edge is Damm to take the opening set at 2 (+2.0 points); Damm's match price at 2 does not qualify.

Context

Both players have won three straight-set matches in Brest and are separated by 12 ranking places, making the semifinal competitive, though it remains a Challenger-level occasion.

Damm's left-handed serve has helped him start quickly, and the first set is the strongest part of his recent hard-court record.
Damm has won 11 of 14 first sets in the sample, giving him a clear early-match argument in this semifinal. Prizmic has also started well, winning 8 of 12 first sets, so the edge is not overwhelming. The opening set looks more Damm-friendly than the match as a whole, but Prizmic's own start keeps it competitive.
- Across 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches from 24 August to 30 October, Damm won 11 first sets and lost 3.
- He averaged 6.1 games won against 4.1 lost in first sets, with three tiebreaks in the sample.
Prizmic has been closing matches in straight sets, with seven 2-0 wins in 12 completed hard-court matches.
Seven of 12 matches ended 2-0, which gives the shorter-match view some substance. Prizmic's three Brest wins have all come in straight sets, but Damm has matched that feat this week. The pattern leans toward a two-set finish without making it one-sided.
- Across 12 completed hard-court best-of-three matches from 13 August to 30 October, Prizmic recorded seven 2-0 wins, three 1-2 losses and two 0-2 losses.
- One retirement was excluded from the 12-match sample.
- His average match total was 2.25 sets, with three tiebreaks in the sample.
Damm's serve is the foundation of his game, with a high first-serve points-won rate and a heavy ace count.
The serve explains why Damm has held so comfortably and why his sets can reach tiebreaks. The low break-point conversion is the counterweight: he has created chances but not finished them often enough. Against Prizmic's cleaner set-closing scores this week, that gap could matter in a tight set.
- Across 15 hard-court matches in the sample, Damm won 79.1% of first-serve points (567 of 717) and averaged 14.1 aces per match.
- He converted 34.2% of break points (27 of 79) and saved 59.3% (35 of 59).
- The six recent matches listed for Damm include no retirement.
Damm's latest win required two tiebreaks, showing how narrow his Brest margins have been.
The scoreline shows Damm's straight-set run in Brest has been hard-earned rather than smooth. Prizmic's latest win over Federico Cina was 6-4, 6-1, a much wider margin. That contrast is a caution against reading Damm's straight-set results as comfortable form.
- On 30 October, Damm beat Clement Tabur 7-6, 7-6, winning 14 games to 12.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Dino Prizmic

1.73fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 57.8%

−4.8ppshort

Prizmic has won his matches more comfortably this week and holds the slightly higher ranking, giving him a narrow overall edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 53%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Prizmic has won his matches more comfortably this week and holds the slightly higher ranking, giving him a narrow overall edge.
- Prizmic is ranked 93, Damm 105, and Prizmic is 8-6 over his last 14 completed matches on hard courts.
- Prizmic's three Brest wins came by 12-5, 12-7 and 12-7 in games, all in straight sets.
- Damm is 8-7 on hard in the same window and needed 14-12 and 13-10 in two of his three wins this week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerDino PrizmicMarket price1.73Estimated chance53%

Games3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in Damm's matches have been the longer ones, with six tiebreaks in his recent sample.
- Damm's second sets average 10.8 total games with six tiebreaks in fourteen.
- Prizmic's second sets average 9.6 total games.
- Both players' second-set game totals sit at or above the line.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Two strong servers meeting in a semi-final usually produce a first set that passes nine games.
- Damm's first sets average 10.2 total games with three tiebreaks in fourteen.
- Prizmic's first sets average 9.9 total games with two tiebreaks in twelve.
- Both players hold serve at a high rate on this surface.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve well and Damm's matches in particular have stretched past 22 games, so a longer match is slightly more likely.
- Damm's recent hard-court matches average 24.1 total games; Prizmic's average 21.7.
- Damm's set-one games average 10.2, his set-two average 10.8.
- Prizmic's set-two games average 9.6 with only one tiebreak in twelve matches.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 22.5Estimated chance56%

Sets2 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent records, and both have been finishing matches in two sets this week.
- Damm's recent hard-court scorelines: 8 wins 2-0, one 0-2 loss, five 1-2 losses.
- Prizmic's recent scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, three 1-2 losses, two 0-2 losses.
- Both players won their Brest quarter-finals in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Damm's first-set record is the stronger of the two and he has started every Brest match well.
- Damm has won 11 of 14 first sets on hard courts this season window.
- Prizmic has won 8 of 12 first sets on the same surface.
- Damm averages 6.1 games won against 4.1 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerMartin DammMarket price2.00Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 outcome · top 58%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks have come regularly enough in Prizmic's matches that sets tend not to reach 6-6.
- Only three of Prizmic's twelve hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
- His recent set scores include 6-4, 6-3 and 6-1 finishes.
- Both players have won their Brest matches without tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Dino Prizmic: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Dino Prizmic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Dino Prizmic11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

15 Jul·ATP Umag

#84Dino Prizmic1-2#101Alex Molcan

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·72%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#84Dino Prizmic1-2#101Alex Molcan

Dino Prizmic to win

72%probability

Alex Molcan won

Missed

13 Jul·ATP Umag

#64Vit Kopriva0-2#89Dino Prizmic

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#64Vit Kopriva0-2#89Dino Prizmic

Dino Prizmic to win

62%probability

Dino Prizmic won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#92Adam Walton1-3#81Dino Prizmic

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#92Adam Walton1-3#81Dino Prizmic

Dino Prizmic to win

62%probability

Dino Prizmic won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP London

#70Dino Prizmic1-2#106Rinky Hijikata

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·62%

Missed

13 Jun 2026

ATP London

#70Dino Prizmic1-2#106Rinky Hijikata

Dino Prizmic to win

62%probability

Rinky Hijikata won

Missed

27 May·ATP Roland Garros

#30Joao Fonseca3-2#72Dino Prizmic

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·55%

Missed

27 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#30Joao Fonseca3-2#72Dino Prizmic

Dino Prizmic to win

55%probability

Joao Fonseca won

Missed

Martin Damm

8W 7L

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#161Clement Tabur

6-4 7-6(4)#345Ugo Blanchet

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 7-6(4)#19Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-3#59Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-3#165Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 6-4#270Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#169Pavel Kotov

2-6 6-1 6-1#8Arthur Fils

4-6 6-3 6-4#28Hubert Hurkacz

6-1 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#5Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#308Abedallah Shelbayh

Dino Prizmic

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#142Federico Cina

6-4 6-3#135Borna Gojo

6-4 6-3#586Robin Catry

7-6(5) 2-6 6-2#83Damir Dzumhur

6-3 5-7 6-2#72Titouan Droguet

7-6(4) 7-5#157Daniil Glinka

6-1 7-6(5)#190David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 6-3#232Daniel Rincon

6-2 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-3#60Daniel Altmaier

6-2 6-3 5-7 6-4#14Tommy Paul

2-6 6-3 6-3 5-7 7-5#109Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 6-4#192Alexis Galarneau

3-6 6-1 6-4#41Cameron Norrie

3-6 7-6(5) 4-0 ret.#80Alex Molcan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Dino PrizmicPrizmicDP

Martin Damm carries the stronger recent form — Dino Prizmic's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1562.0%+2.8pp59.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1579.1%+9.1pp70.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1553.2%+5.4pp47.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/1514.1+9.84.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.11.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1532.6%+7.0pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1534.2%+7.1pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1559.3%+4.6pp54.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1551.0%—50.7%

Serve · 5–0

62.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+2.8pp59.2%

79.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+9.1pp70.0%

53.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+5.4pp47.8%

14.1Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+9.84.3

3.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

32.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+7.0pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

34.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+7.1pp41.3%

59.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+4.6pp54.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—50.7%