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Predictions graded

Fiona Ferro #99France2Elizabeth Mandlik #210United States1

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 6-4Sat 31 Oct 2026, 00:40 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Ferro · 111 places

Fiona Ferro

France

French right-hander with a career-high ranking of No. 39 in March 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as her preferred surfaces; WTA lists Emmanuel Planque as coach.

Current ranking: #99
Peak ranking: #39 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Elizabeth Mandlik

United States

American right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard courts as her preferred surface. She reached a career-high WTA singles ranking of No. 97 in June 2023.

Current ranking: #210
Peak ranking: #97 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferro's 11-1 clay record makes her the likelier winner of this quarter-final, yet Mandlik has won both her clay matches this week, one in three sets, so a longer match is live.

The 1.25 on Ferro asks too much; her 2-0 at 1.6 and first set at 1.3 do not hold up either. Over 2.5 sets at 2.75 and Mandlik at 4 are the quoted prices that offer something.

Context

Her clay first sets have averaged 9.0 total games and her second sets 8.1, so the sets have been settled inside the distance rather than at 6-6.
Eight of those 12 matches finished 2-0 and the average match lasted 2.25 sets, so Ferro's clay wins have tended to arrive without a deciding set. That pattern sits against Mandlik, who has already been taken to a third set this week. It describes how Ferro's recent clay matches have gone, not what will happen here.
- 12 completed clay matches tracked from 5 Sept 2026 to 29 Oct 2026.
- Ferro won 10 of 12 first sets (5.5 games to 3.5) and 9 of 12 second sets (4.9 to 3.2).
- No tiebreak in any of the 12 matches; eight finished 2-0, three 2-1 and one 0-2.
- Average 19.3 total games and 2.25 sets per match.
Her two clay matches averaged 22.0 total games and 2.5 sets, and she took both second sets by an average of 6.0 games to 2.0.
The sample says more about this week than about Mandlik's clay game in general. Both wins required work, and the three-setter against Janicijevic shows she can be dragged into a long match and still finish it. Against a player with Ferro's clay record, that is a caution rather than a settled form line.
- Two completed clay matches, 27-28 Oct 2026, both wins (one 2-0, one 2-1).
- Average 22.0 total games and 2.5 sets per match.
- Second sets won 2 of 2, averaging 6.0 games to 2.0.
It is the only listed clay match in which Ferro faced an opponent inside the top 150, and she won only four of 16 games.
This is the one data point that cuts against an 11-1 clay record. Mandlik, ranked 210, sits between that level and the opponents Ferro has been beating, so the match tests whether the run holds against a stronger opponent. A single result is not a pattern, but it is the clearest check on the record.
- 16 Oct 2026: lost 2-6 2-6 (4-12 games) to Leyre Romero Gormaz, ranked 129.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro

1.30fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 76.9%

−5.9ppshort

Ferro starts clay matches strongly and has taken the opening set in ten of twelve.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro has a much deeper run of clay form and wins most of her sets early, while Mandlik's clay evidence is only two matches long.
- Ferro is 11-1 on clay in the last-15 window and 12-2 overall.
- Her 12 clay matches average 19.3 total games with zero tiebreaks.
- Mandlik is ranked 210 and has only two clay matches in the sample, though both were wins.
- Ferro's clay wins have mostly come against opponents ranked 270 or lower.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro rarely wins by a wide margin, so Mandlik staying within six games covers a broad range of outcomes.
- Mandlik won her two clay matches 14-10 and 12-8 in games.
- Ferro has won only one of her last five clay matches by seven games or more.
- Ferro's average clay match margin is modest given several close wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonElizabeth Mandlik +6.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average about eight games, well under this line.
- Ferro's clay second sets average 8.1 total games.
- Mandlik's clay second sets average 8.0 total games.
- Neither player has a clay tiebreak in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players average exactly nine games, with few tiebreaks, so the under line is slightly favoured.
- Ferro's clay first sets average 9.0 total games.
- Mandlik's clay first sets average 9.0 total games.
- Neither player has a tiebreak in the clay set evidence.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's clay matches tend to be short, and a straight-set win for her usually falls under this line.
- Ferro's clay matches average 19.3 total games.
- Mandlik's two clay matches average 22 total games.
- Ferro's two latest clay wins were 12-0 and 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ferro starts clay matches strongly and has taken the opening set in ten of twelve.
- Ferro has won 10 of 12 first sets on clay, averaging 5.5 games to 3.5.
- Mandlik has split her two clay first sets 1-1.
- Ferro has won the first set in both of her matches this week.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's second-set record on clay is strong and her second sets are typically short and controlled.
- Ferro has won 9 of 12 second sets on clay, averaging 4.9 games to 3.2.
- Mandlik has won both of her clay second sets.
- Ferro's second sets average only 8.1 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFiona FerroEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's clay matches usually finish in straight sets, and her straight-set wins account for most of her record.
- Ferro's average sets per clay match is 2.25.
- Eight of Ferro's 12 clay matches finished 2-0.
- Mandlik's two clay matches averaged 2.5 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has been taken to a tiebreak in the available clay sample, and sets tend to be settled before 6-6.
- Ferro has no tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Mandlik has no tiebreaks in two clay matches.
- Ferro's clay first sets average 9.0 games and second sets 8.1.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance76%

Prediction history

Fiona Ferro: 5/6 recent winner projections matched

5 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Fiona Ferro matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Fiona Ferro6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·65%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

Fiona Ferro to win

65%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

16 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

Previous match context available

Fiona Ferro

12W 3L

6-0 6-0#899Adriana Reami

7-5 1-6 6-3#364Sofia Johnson

6-2 6-2#129Leyre Romero Gormaz

7-5 6-1#282Selena Janicijevic

6-3 6-4#272Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 2-0 ret.#405Sijia Wei

6-4 2-6 6-1#387Yidi Yang

6-3 6-3#38Talia Gibson

6-1 6-2#127Noma Akugue Noha

6-1 2-6 6-0#152Dalma Galfi

6-4 6-0#184Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#191Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-4#185Mona Barthel

2-6 6-3 7-5#151Clara Burel

6-4 6-2#279Francesca Pace

Elizabeth Mandlik

8W 7L

2-6 6-0 6-4#282Selena Janicijevic 6-4 6-4#157Emiliana Arango

7-5 2-6 6-2#178Madison Brengle

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#191Barbora Palicova

6-2 4-6 6-4#277Martina Capurro Taborda

6-4 6-4#716Mayu Crossley

7-5 6-1#235Julieta Pareja

7-5 6-2#486Kristina Penickova

6-7(6) 6-4 6-3#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-3 6-4#217Reese Brantmeier

6-4 1-1 ret.#297Hanna Chang

6-4 6-0#118Lucrezia Stefanini

5-7 7-6(9) 6-2#189Kayla Cross

6-3 4-6 6-1#321Lea Ma

4-6 7-5 7-5#329Ariana Arseneault

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FFFiona FerroFerro

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Elizabeth MandlikMandlikEM

Fiona Ferro carries the stronger recent form — Elizabeth Mandlik's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In70.3%+12.7pp57.6%

1st Serve Won57.7%+2.7pp60.4%

2nd Serve Won46.9%+7.2pp39.7%

Aces / Match0.7+0.61.3

Double Faults / Match1.55.0 fewer6.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.8%+4.3pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.9%+4.1pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved50.9%+0.9pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+3.5pp49.6%

Serve · 3–2

70.3%1st Serve In+12.7pp57.6%

57.7%1st Serve Won+2.7pp60.4%

46.9%2nd Serve Won+7.2pp39.7%

0.7Aces / Match+0.61.3

1.5Double Faults / Match5.0 fewer6.5

Return · 1–0

51.8%Return Pts Won+4.3pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

45.9%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp50.0%

50.9%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+3.5pp49.6%

Fiona Ferro

Elizabeth Mandlik

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Elizabeth Mandlik

Fiona Ferro

Fiona Ferro 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Fiona Ferro

Elizabeth Mandlik

Stat Battle