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Predictions graded

Jake Delaney #356Australia0Liam Broady #233United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 6-7Fri 30 Oct 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions1–811%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Broady · 123 places

Jake Delaney

Australia

Delaney, 29, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached his career-best singles ranking of No. 354 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #356
Peak ranking: #354 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

Broady is the left-hander in this matchup and is listed with hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharest

The lower-ranked player is the one in form: Delaney is 7-7 on hard courts over 14 matches, Broady 3-9 over 12, and Broady has won just one of 12 first sets.

Delaney is the likelier winner, though his own 5-9 first-set record keeps it from being clean. Delaney at 3 for the match and 2.6 for the first set are worth taking; Broady at 1.33 and 1.44 are not.

Context

Broady's 12-match hard-court window runs from 13 July to 29 October 2026, and half of it has gone the full distance. His matches average 26.2 games against Delaney's 22.4 games, so a long contest is the natural shape here. Twelve matches is a small base, so this is a tendency worth noting rather than a settled pattern.
- Set evidence covers 12 completed, non-retired hard-court matches from 13 July to 29 October 2026.
- Six of the 12 went to a deciding set: three won 2-1 and three lost 1-2.
- Average total sets 2.5 and average total games 26.2 per match.
Delaney's opening sets have gone 5-9 across 14 hard-court matches from 9 September to 29 October 2026, with four first-set tiebreaks. His 4.86 games won against 5.43 lost show he is frequently behind early. That tempers the gap to Broady's 1-11 first-set record, even if the comparison still favours Delaney.
- Set evidence covers 14 completed, non-retired hard-court matches from 9 September to 29 October 2026.
- Delaney has won 5 first sets and lost 9 in that sample.
- First-set games average 4.86 won against 5.43 lost, with four first-set tiebreaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Delaney has the stronger recent hard-court record and a clear first-set edge, while Broady's higher ranking is not backed by current results.
- Delaney is 7-7 on hard in the last 14 completed matches; Broady is 3-9 on hard in the last 12.
- Delaney has won 5 of 14 first sets on hard; Broady has won 1 of 12.
- Broady's hard-court total points won is 48.6% across 12 matches.
- Broady is ranked 233 and Delaney 356.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJake DelaneyEstimated chance56%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
A three-set match is likely enough to push total games past 24.5.
- Broady's hard-court average total games is 26.2; Delaney's is 22.4.
- Broady's second-set total games average is 11.2.
- Delaney's last two wins both needed three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's second sets have been longer on average, supporting the over.
- Broady's second sets average 11.2 total games on hard.
- Delaney's second sets average 9.9 total games on hard.
- Delaney's second-set games won average is 5.07 and lost 4.86.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average just above the threshold, with tiebreaks adding over routes.
- Delaney's first sets average 10.3 total games on hard.
- Broady's first sets average 10.3 total games on hard.
- Delaney has four first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's matches often go the distance, and his weak first sets make comebacks likely.
- Broady has six three-set matches in 12 hard-court matches.
- Broady's hard-court total sets average is 2.5.
- Both players won their latest match in three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Broady has started slowly throughout the hard-court sample, giving Delaney the clearer first-set route.
- Delaney has won 5 of 14 first sets on hard; Broady has won 1 of 12.
- Broady's first-set games won average is 4.42 and games lost average 5.92.
- Delaney's first-set games won average is 4.86 and games lost average 5.43.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJake DelaneyEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been close for both players, with Delaney holding a slight overall match edge.
- Delaney has won 6 of 14 second sets on hard; Broady has won 5 of 12.
- Delaney's second-set games won average is 5.07 and lost average 4.86.
- Broady's second-set games won average is 5.42 and lost average 5.75.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJake DelaneyEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their completed hard-court matches have not included a tiebreak.
- Delaney has nine hard-court matches without a tiebreak in 14.
- Broady has seven hard-court matches without a tiebreak in 12.
- Broady's first-set tiebreak count is two in 12.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Jake Delaney

8W 7L

2-6 6-4 6-4#280Yi Zhou

6-4 4-6 6-4#466Alexandr Binda

6-4 7-6(4)#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 6-2#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

4-3 ret.#887Ajeet Rai

7-6(4) 6-4—Unknown Player

6-4 6-0—Wihan Van Der Merwe

6-2 6-2—Harrison Satara

7-6(7) 7-6(6)#893Derek Pham

7-6(3) 6-3—Lachlan Vickery

6-3 7-5#815Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#179Taro Daniel

6-3 6-2#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 6-3 6-4#592Hikaru Shiraishi

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#172Pavel Kotov

Liam Broady

5W 10L

6-1 6-7(3) 6-4#597Naoya Honda

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#294Sergey Fomin

6-4 6-4#309Akira Santillan

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 3-6 6-1#253Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#164Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-5#421Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#407Ozan Baris

7-5 5-7 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-5#404Yuta Shimizu

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 7-6(6)#37Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#203Andre Ilagan

7-6(4) 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JDJake DelaneyDelaney

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Liam BroadyBroadyLB

Jake Delaney carries the stronger recent form — Liam Broady's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In64.7%+5.4pp59.3%

1st Serve Won77.3%+4.8pp72.5%

2nd Serve Won54.2%+4.0pp50.2%

Aces / Match11.1+7.23.9

Double Faults / Match2.11.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.4%+3.4pp34.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.4%+21.0pp31.4%

Break Pts Saved75.0%+10.5pp64.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.2pp49.2%

Serve · 5–0

64.7%1st Serve In+5.4pp59.3%

77.3%1st Serve Won+4.8pp72.5%

54.2%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp50.2%

11.1Aces / Match+7.23.9

2.1Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

31.4%Return Pts Won+3.4pp34.8%

Pressure · 2–0

52.4%Break Pts Converted+21.0pp31.4%

75.0%Break Pts Saved+10.5pp64.5%

Points · 1–0

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.2%