ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinished

Predictions graded

Anna Blinkova #73France2Martyna Kubka #147Poland0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Fri 30 Oct 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions9–190%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnna Blinkova · 74 places

Anna Blinkova

France

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 34. No reliable current physical-availability or preferred-surface detail was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #34
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-75 player against a No. 147 who has won nine of 14, with a semifinal place on the line.

Blinkova's fuller hard-court numbers and her 11-of-15 second sets make her the likely winner, most probably in two sets. At 1.45 she is priced shorter than that case justifies, and the same goes for her 2-0 at 2.0 and her set prices at 1.5; Under 2.5 sets at 1.45 is merely fair, so no price stands out.

Context

Kubka arrives in Courmayeur having just produced her most one-sided result of the swing.
Kubka lost just three games in that win over a top-110 opponent, her most dominant result of the fortnight. It shows she can close a set quickly on this surface, which matters against a favourite whose recent matches have mostly been short. Her previous win, over Mia Ristic on 27 October, needed a 7-6 second set, so the Pigato scoreline is the best case rather than the norm.
- 29 October 2026: Kubka beat Lisa Pigato (No. 108) 6-2 6-1 on indoor hard, winning 12 games to 3.
- 27 October 2026: Kubka beat Mia Ristic (No. 185) 6-3 7-6 on indoor hard.
Blinkova's recent hard-court results skew heavily towards short matches, whatever the opponent.
Nine of her 15 completed hard-court matches between 16 September and 29 October ended 2-0 in her favour, and only three went to a third set. Her average of 2.2 sets per match is the number behind any expectation of a quick finish. The pattern cuts both ways, though: three of those 15 were 0-2 defeats, so straight sets does not automatically mean a Blinkova win.
- 15 completed hard-court matches, 16 September to 29 October 2026: scorelines of 2-0 (9), 2-1 (2), 0-2 (3), 1-2 (1).
- Average of 2.2 sets and 19.7 total games per match across that sample.
Kubka's edge in this match, if any, sits in the opening set rather than later in the contest.
Kubka's first sets have been her stronger phase, averaging 5.2 games to 3.9, while her second sets sit at 4.7 games to 4.8. Against an opponent who won 11 of 15 second sets, that split is the clearest pressure point in the match. The sample covers 14 completed matches and excludes one retirement.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 25 August to 29 October 2026; one retirement excluded.
- Set 1: 9 wins, 5 losses, 5.2 games won against 3.9 games lost per set.
- Set 2: 7 wins, 7 losses, 4.7 games won against 4.8 games lost per set.
Blinkova's ranking advantage has not translated automatically against lower-ranked opposition this month.
Lamens was ranked 225 when she beat Blinkova 6-3 6-2 on 22 October, conceding only five games. It is the clearest example in her recent record that a ranking gap has not always held on court. Four defeats in 15 hard-court matches is still a strong body of work, but this result is the reason the favourite's price is not obviously generous.
- 22 October 2026: Blinkova lost 3-6 2-6 to Suzan Lamens (No. 225) on indoor hard.
- Blinkova's 15-match hard-court record stands at 11 wins and 4 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Anna Blinkova

1.45fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69%

−6.0ppshort

Blinkova has the stronger ranking and a full set of hard-court numbers showing a clear points and games advantage.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Anna Blinkova

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Blinkova's second sets are her strongest phase of the match, while Kubka's fade.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Anna Blinkova

1.50fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 66.7%

−9.7ppshort

Blinkova's opening sets are slightly more reliable, helped by a stronger first serve.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Anna Blinkova 2-0

2.00fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 50%

−3.0ppshort

Blinkova's recent wins have mostly come without dropping a set, and she is the stronger server in the match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Blinkova has the stronger ranking and a full set of hard-court numbers showing a clear points and games advantage.
- 11-4 on hard in her last 15, winning 56.9% of games and 53.2% of total points
- First-serve points won 63.3% and break points converted 58.9%
- Kubka is ranked 147 and has no serve or return metrics recorded
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnna BlinkovaEstimated chance63%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players have averaged right at nine games, leaning just under the line.
- Blinkova's first sets average 9.0 total games
- Kubka's first sets average 9.1 total games
- Each player has had only one first-set tiebreak in the sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kubka has kept most recent matches close in games, so a small head start is modestly valuable.
- Kubka lost only 5-12 in games to Boisson in her worst recent defeat
- She won 12-3 and 13-9 in her last two matches
- No game-level aggregate is recorded for her
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMartyna Kubka +2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blinkova's dominant second sets have kept her totals short, offsetting Kubka's longer ones.
- Blinkova's second sets average 8.7 total games
- Kubka's second sets average 9.5 total games
- Blinkova wins 5.2 games to 3.5 in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two averages sit close to the line, with Blinkova's shorter matches pulling slightly under.
- Blinkova's hard-court matches average 19.7 total games
- Kubka's average 21.0 total games
- Blinkova's matches average 2.2 sets and Kubka's 2.3
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both players have recently settled matches in two sets more often than not.
- Blinkova averages 2.2 sets per hard-court match, Kubka 2.3
- Blinkova won 2-0 in 9 of 15 matches; Kubka in 6 of 14
- Only 7 of these 29 matches went to a third set
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Blinkova's second sets are her strongest phase of the match, while Kubka's fade.
- Blinkova won set 2 in 11 of 15 hard-court matches, averaging 5.2 games to 3.5
- Kubka's second-set record is only 7-7
- Kubka has one 1-2 loss after leading
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAnna BlinkovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Blinkova's opening sets are slightly more reliable, helped by a stronger first serve.
- Blinkova won set 1 in 10 of 15 hard-court matches, averaging 4.9 games to 4.1
- Kubka won set 1 in 9 of 14, averaging 5.2 to 3.9
- Blinkova wins 63.3% of first-serve points
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnna BlinkovaEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players mostly avoid the tight sets that produce tiebreaks.
- Four of the 29 combined hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Blinkova's sets average 9.0 and 8.7 games
- Kubka's sets average 9.1 and 9.5 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Anna Blinkova

11W 4L

6-3 4-6 6-3#248Katarina Zavatska

6-3 6-2#152Dalma Galfi

6-3 6-2#225Suzan Lamens

6-4 7-6(0)#523Andre Lukosiute

6-2 6-3#118Lucrezia Stefanini

6-3 6-4#129Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-2 6-3#264Caroline Werner

4-6 6-2 6-4#190Elena Pridankina

6-0 6-1#256Lois Boisson

6-2 6-0#207Viktoria Hruncakova

7-6(4) 6-2#157Emiliana Arango

6-4 2-6 6-4#86Kaitlin Quevedo

6-4 7-5#100Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-0#169Vendula Valdmannova

6-1 6-3#156Carol Young Suh Lee

Martyna Kubka

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#108Lisa Pigato

6-3 7-6(4)#185Mia Ristic

1-6 7-5 6-3#108Dominika Salkova

7-5 4-2 ret.#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-3 6-4#143Teodora Kostovic

6-1 6-2#100Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-2#256Lois Boisson

6-3 4-6 6-4#566Ksenia Efremova

6-2 6-4#244Berfu Cengiz

6-3 6-3#344Manon Leonard

7-5 4-6 6-1#536Carson Tanguilig

6-2 7-5#532Jana Otzipka

6-4 6-0#107Kristina Liutova

6-3 6-2#125Marina Bassols Ribera

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#509Annika Penickova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAnna BlinkovaBlinkova

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Martyna KubkaKubkaMK

Martyna Kubka carries the stronger recent form — Anna Blinkova's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.9%+2.0pp64.9%

1st Serve Won63.3%+2.6pp65.9%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+7.8pp53.7%

Aces / Match1.5+4.15.6

Double Faults / Match2.2—2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.6%+7.7pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted58.9%+14.7pp44.2%

Break Pts Saved57.0%—56.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+1.4pp51.8%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

62.9%1st Serve In+2.0pp64.9%

63.3%1st Serve Won+2.6pp65.9%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+7.8pp53.7%

1.5Aces / Match+4.15.6

2.2Double Faults / Match—2.1

Return · 1–0

49.6%Return Pts Won+7.7pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

58.9%Break Pts Converted+14.7pp44.2%

57.0%Break Pts Saved—56.8%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+1.4pp51.8%