ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tristan Schoolkate #169Australia1Jie Cui #448China2

Sets 2-6 · 6-3 · 2-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Schoolkate · 279 places

Tristan Schoolkate

Australia

Career-high No. 95 on 15 September 2025. He has won Challenger titles on hard and grass, but no reliable source located explicitly states a preferred surface or current decline trajectory.

Current ranking: #169
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jie Cui

China

China's Cui was born on 24 January 1998. Public profile data identifies a career-best singles ranking of No. 280 in January 2025; no reliable preferred-surface information was found.

Current ranking: #448
Peak ranking: #280 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:31 · Europe/Bucharest

A second-round rematch five days after Schoolkate edged Cui 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 on hard, with Schoolkate's first serve the clearest separator in the record.

Schoolkate is the likelier winner, but at 1.5 the price asks for 66.7% and the case sits nearer six in ten, so it offers nothing; Cui at 2.4 does not either. No quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Schoolkate came from a set down to win the most recent meeting between the pair.
That match is the freshest evidence either player has against the other, and it went to the wire despite a ranking gap of 279 places. It shows Cui can stay with Schoolkate from the back of the court and take an opening set, while Schoolkate's serve kept him in front late. The rematch is unlikely to be a straightforward passage for the higher-ranked man.
- 24 October 2026, hard court: Schoolkate beat Jie Cui 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, winning 19 games to 17 over three sets.
- Both players had completed 2026 hard-court matches before this week, with the meeting falling between Cui's wins over Wu and Santillan.
Cui's recent hard-court scorelines have mostly been settled inside two sets.
Only three of those 14 matches reached a third set, which makes a quick finish the usual pattern in his recent tennis. The counterpoint is that the one match against Schoolkate five days ago did go three sets and included a tiebreak. That makes the pattern a tendency rather than a reliable guide for this specific rematch.
- 31 August to 27 October 2026, hard best-of-3: scorelines of 2-0 (seven), 1-2 (three), 0-2 (four) across 14 completed matches.
- Same sample: five of the 14 matches contained a tiebreak, and total games averaged 23.4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Tristan Schoolkate

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Schoolkate's serve and higher ranking give him the stronger overall claim despite a close recent meeting.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Schoolkate's serve and higher ranking give him the stronger overall claim despite a close recent meeting.
- Ranked 169 vs 448; hard-court last 15: 9-6.
- First-serve points won 80.0% vs 71.2%; aces 11.2 vs 5.6 per match.
- Won last meeting 2-1 on hard (6-7, 6-4, 7-6).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The recent head-to-head and Schoolkate's longer matches make a total just above the line more likely than not.
- Combined setEvidence total games average 24.3.
- Last meeting produced 36 games.
- Schoolkate's last six matches averaged 26.7 total games; Cui's 23.2.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's second-set record is the clearest set-level split, and he took the second set in the recent meeting.
- Schoolkate set2 10-4; Cui set2 8-6.
- Schoolkate won set2 6-4 in their last meeting.
- Schoolkate first-serve points won 80.0%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTristan SchoolkateEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cui's straight-set record and both players' quick latest wins point to a finish in two sets.
- Cui has finished 11 of 14 hard best-of-3 matches in straight sets.
- Both players won 2-0 on 27 October.
- SetEvidence average sets: Schoolkate 2.50, Cui 2.21.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cui's first-set record and last head-to-head start point to a small advantage in the opener despite the ranking gap.
- Cui set1 9-5 on hard best-of-3; Schoolkate 7-7.
- Cui won the opening set 7-6 in their last meeting.
- Cui first-serve in 66.0% vs Schoolkate 62.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJie CuiEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The aggregate tiebreak rate is below half and both won their latest matches in straight sets without one.
- Tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard best-of-3 matches for each player.
- Both latest matches were straight-set wins without a tiebreak.
- Combined setEvidence tiebreak rate is below half.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of 3.4 is below the line, helped by Cui's 1.4 per match.
- Combined average 3.4 double faults per match.
- Schoolkate 2.0 per match; Cui 1.4.
- Cui has finished 11 of 14 hard best-of-3 matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Schoolkate's high ace rate lifts the pair's combined average just above the line.
- Schoolkate 11.2 aces per match; Cui 5.6.
- Combined average 16.8 aces per match.
- Last meeting went three sets.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 16.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Tristan Schoolkate

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#427Masamichi Imamura 4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(2)#448Jie Cui 7-6(4) 6-3#196Keegan Smith

6-2 4-6 6-4#294Sergey Fomin

7-5 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

3-6 6-3 6-2#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 2-6 6-4#202Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#246Philip Henning

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#243Matteo Martineau

6-3 6-3#202Harold Mayot

6-2 6-1#515Matisse Bobichon

6-7(7) 6-4 6-4#307Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-3#419Marek Gengel

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#6Flavio Cobolli

Jie Cui

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#817Linang Xiao 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(2)#169Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 6-3#309Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 7-6(7)#106Yibing Wu

6-2 6-4#287Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-4 7-5#67Martin Landaluce

6-3 7-5#296Fajing Sun

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 6-4#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-4 6-1#65Daniel Altmaier

6-1 6-7(2) 6-4#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

4-6 6-4 6-4#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(3) 6-4#280Yi Zhou

7-5 6-4#296Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#551James Kent Trotter

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TSTristan SchoolkateSchoolkate

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Jie CuiCuiJC

Jie Cui carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Schoolkate's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.7%+3.3pp66.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1580.0%+8.8pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1554.5%+0.9pp55.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/1511.2+5.65.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.00.6 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1533.2%+1.6pp34.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.5%+3.3pp45.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.1%+10.6pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.7%+1.3pp50.4%

Serve · 2–3

62.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp66.0%

80.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.8pp71.2%

54.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp55.4%

11.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+5.65.6

2.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.6 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

33.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp34.8%

Pressure · 0–2

42.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp45.8%

56.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+10.6pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp50.4%