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Predictions graded

Petr Bar Biryukov #327Russia2Fajing Sun #296China1

Sets 5-7 · 6-3 · 6-4Thu 29 Oct 2026, 05:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFajing Sun · 31 places

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #327
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #296
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Both men needed three sets in their Ningbo openers, and there is little between them: Sun is ranked 296 to Biryukov's 327 and marginally favoured, while Biryukov's serve — 73.4% of first-serve points won over 15 hard matches — keeps him live.

At 2.4, Biryukov is the price that holds up; Sun at 1.5 asks for far more than his edge justifies.

Context

That was Biryukov's first completed hard-court win since 7 October, and it took two tiebreak-style sets to secure.
The three-set workload came the day before this second round, and it followed four losses in his previous five completed hard matches. A first-round win built on narrow margins leaves his form only partly answered, even with the serve numbers behind him.
- Biryukov beat Semen Pankin (ranked 432) 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 on 27 October 2026 in the Ningbo first round.
- He won 19 games to 17 across the three sets.
- It was his first win in the six most recent matches listed, after four defeats.
Sun dropped the opening set before taking control of the second and edging a tight third.
A win over a top-250 opponent is a firmer marker than Biryukov's first-round result against 432, which is part of why Sun is narrowly favoured here. The cost is a three-set match the day before, and his serve and return figures are not available to say how repeatable the level is.
- Sun beat Hayato Matsuoka (ranked 242) 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 on 27 October 2026.
- He won 17 games to 14 across the three sets.
- Matsuoka is the highest-ranked opponent Sun has beaten in the six matches listed.
He also averaged 9.6 aces and 4.1 double faults per match in that 15-match window.
Those are the most complete numbers available for either player, and they explain why a 7-8 record still leaves him competitive in serve-dominated rallies. The same window shows only 26.2% break-point conversion (16 of 61), so the serving advantage does not automatically convert into scoreboard pressure.
- Biryukov won 73.4% of first-serve points (481 of 655) over 15 hard-court matches from 1 September to 27 October 2026.
- He saved 61.3% of break points (46 of 75) and averaged 9.6 aces and 4.1 double faults per match in that window.
- He converted 26.2% of break points (16 of 61) over the same 15 matches.
Five of those 14 matches ended in straight-set defeats, while three were straight-set wins.
The spread cuts both ways for this second round: Sun's recent hard-court work has frequently extended past two sets, which counters a straight-sets expectation, but the five 0-2 losses also show how often he has been beaten without winning a set.
- Sun's setEvidence covers 14 completed hard-court matches from 4 September to 27 October 2026, with one retirement excluded.
- Scorelines: three 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses, three 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses, for an average of 2.43 sets per match.
- Four of those matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun has the higher ranking and the better-ranked recent win, with Biryukov's serve threat offset by weak break-point conversion.
- Sun is ranked 296 to Biryukov's 327.
- Sun is 6-8 on hard over 14 matches; Biryukov is 7-8 over 15.
- Sun beat Matsuoka (242) in three sets in the first round; Biryukov beat Pankin (432).
- Biryukov converts only 26.2% of break points.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFajing SunEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's first sets run slightly long, and the two players' first-set games are close enough to extend past nine.
- Biryukov's first sets average 10.6 total games; Sun's average 9.79.
- Biryukov has five first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Sun has no first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Both players have losing first-set game differentials.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average around ten games, with tiebreak history on both sides.
- Biryukov's second sets average 10.27 total games; Sun's average 10.0.
- Biryukov has four second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Sun has two second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Both players have losing second-set game differentials.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun's matches tend to run longer, and both players have just come through three-set first rounds.
- Biryukov's hard-court matches average 22.9 total games; Sun's average 24.7.
- Sun has played three sets in 6 of 14 hard matches.
- Both opening matches went three sets.
- Biryukov's first sets average 10.6 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's matches usually end in straight sets, and Sun has also finished eight of 14 in two sets.
- Biryukov has 12 straight-set results in 15 hard matches.
- Biryukov's average sets per hard match is 2.2.
- Sun has eight straight-set results in 14 hard matches.
- Sun's average sets per hard match is 2.43.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun's first-set record is slightly better than Biryukov's, though both have losing first-set counts.
- Sun is 6-8 in first sets on hard; Biryukov is 6-9.
- Sun averages 4.57 first-set games won and 5.21 lost.
- Biryukov averages 5.07 first-set games won and 5.53 lost.
- Sun has no first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFajing SunEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sun's second-set games are slightly stronger than Biryukov's despite a similar set win count.
- Sun has won 6 of 14 second sets; Biryukov has won 7 of 15.
- Sun averages 4.86 second-set games won and 5.14 lost; Biryukov averages 4.73 and 5.53.
- Sun has two second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- The match winner leans Sun.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFajing SunEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' recent hard matches have not included a tiebreak, especially Sun's first sets.
- Sun has four matches with a tiebreak in 14 hard matches.
- Biryukov has six matches with a tiebreak in 15 hard matches.
- Sun's first sets have no tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Biryukov has 12 straight-set results in 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Petr Bar Biryukov

7W 8L

6-7(1) 7-6(5) 6-4#432Semen Pankin

6-2 6-3#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-1 6-2#388Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(5)#761Yuta Tomida

6-2 6-4—Maksim Shin

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

7-5 6-4#427Masamichi Imamura

6-4 6-4#131Alexandre Muller

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#203Andre Ilagan

7-5 6-3#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#597Naoya Honda

6-3 6-4#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#471Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-3#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Fajing Sun

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 7-5#242Hayato Matsuoka

3-6 6-4 7-6(3)#196Keegan Smith

6-4 6-2#890Qian Sun

6-3 7-5#448Jie Cui

6-3 6-4#361Alibek Kachmazov

6-4 7-5#382Kasidit Samrej

6-3 1-0 ret.#891Aoran Wang

6-4 6-7(8) 6-3#180Bernard Tomic

6-2 6-0#70Roman Safiullin

6-4 7-5#180Bernard Tomic

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#250Matthew Dellavedova

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#465Alexandr Binda

7-5 3-6 7-5#182Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-4#448Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#217Chun Hsin Tseng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPetr Bar BiryukovBiryukov

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Fajing SunSunFS

Fajing Sun carries the stronger recent form — Petr Bar Biryukov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.9%+5.1pp66.0%

1st Serve Won73.4%+4.5pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won51.8%+1.4pp53.2%

Aces / Match9.6+5.34.3

Double Faults / Match4.12.7 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won29.2%+7.0pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted26.2%+12.5pp38.7%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+2.2pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.9%+1.6pp49.5%

Serve · 2–3

60.9%1st Serve In+5.1pp66.0%

73.4%1st Serve Won+4.5pp68.9%

51.8%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp53.2%

9.6Aces / Match+5.34.3

4.1Double Faults / Match2.7 fewer1.4

Return · 0–1

29.2%Return Pts Won+7.0pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

26.2%Break Pts Converted+12.5pp38.7%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp59.1%

Points · 0–1

47.9%Total Pts Won+1.6pp49.5%