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Predictions graded

Martyna Kubka #147Poland2Lisa Pigato #108Italy0

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Thu 29 Oct 2026, 20:15 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLisa Pigato · 39 places

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Lisa Pigato

Italy

Pigato is a right-handed Italian player, born in June 2003. Available public profile material did not provide a reliable declared preferred surface or current fitness update.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #128 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Pigato's 11-2 hard-court run and 10-3 first-set record meet a Kubka who has beaten a top-100 opponent this month.

Pigato is the likelier winner, and the 2.2 match price, 2.05 for the opening set, 1.8 with a 2.5-game head start and 3.3 for a 2-0 Pigato win all offer something; Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 does not.

Context

Pigato's 11-2 hard-court record carries one heavy outlier.
It is the one wide defeat in a 13-match sample she otherwise controls at 11-2, and it shows how quickly her level has dropped within the past month. Kubka's path runs through that kind of day reappearing rather than a gradual erosion of Pigato's form.
- 14 October 2026: Pigato lost 0-6 1-6 to Lucie Havlickova (No. 184) on indoor hard court.
- Pigato's completed hard-court sample is 13 matches from 24 August to 28 October 2026, with 11 wins and 2 losses.
Kubka's results include a top-100 scalp in straight sets.
It is the highest-ranked opponent either player has beaten in this window, and it argues against reading the 39-place ranking gap as decisive. She has that level in her recent record, though the 8-6 hard-court sample overall is more ordinary.
- 13 October 2026: Kubka beat Alina Charaeva (No. 97) 6-1 6-2 on indoor hard court.
- Kubka's completed hard-court sample is 14 matches from 5 August to 27 October 2026, with 8 wins and 6 losses.
Kubka's set-by-set record turns negative after the opener.
Her first sets read 5.1 games won to 4.2 lost and an 8-6 record; the second sets flip to 4.6 won and 5.1 lost and a 6-8 record. If the opener stays close, that second-set pattern is the part of her record worth watching rather than the overall win-loss line.
- Kubka's 14 completed hard-court matches, 5 August to 27 October 2026: set 1 record 8-6, averaging 5.1 games won and 4.2 games lost.
- Same sample, set 2: record 6-8, averaging 4.6 games won and 5.1 games lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Pigato has the stronger recent hard-court record and starts sets better, giving her a clear but not wide advantage.
- Pigato is 11-2 on hard in the last 13 completed matches.
- Pigato's set1 record is 10-3 and set2 is 8-5.
- Pigato won her latest match 2-0 against Montgomery.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLisa PigatoEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Pigato's recent margins and favorite status make the +2.5 line likely to hold, with room for a narrow defeat.
- Pigato's recent hard-court game margin is +14 over six completed matches.
- Pigato has five wins by at least four games in her last six completed hard-court matches.
- Pigato is the match favorite at 58%, and +2.5 also covers a one- or two-game loss.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLisa Pigato +2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined total-game average sits right around this line, making over a marginal call.
- Kubka's hard-court matches average 21.5 total games.
- Pigato's hard-court matches average 19.9 total games.
- The combined average is about 20.7 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent hard-court records.
- Kubka has won or lost 2-0 in 10 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Pigato has won or lost 2-0 in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Their combined straight-set rate is 19 of 27.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Pigato has been the more reliable first-set player and should edge the opener.
- Pigato has won the first set in 10 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Pigato averages 5.0 first-set games won and 3.5 lost.
- Kubka has lost the first set in 6 of 14.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLisa PigatoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly avoided tiebreaks in completed hard-court sets.
- Only 3 of 27 combined recent hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
- Pigato's set1 tiebreak count is 0 in 13 matches.
- Kubka's set1 tiebreak count is 1 in 14.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Martyna Kubka

9W 6L

6-3 7-6(4)#185Mia Ristic

1-6 7-5 6-3#112Dominika Salkova

7-5 4-2 ret.#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-3 6-4#144Teodora Kostovic

6-1 6-2#97Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-2#255Lois Boisson

6-3 4-6 6-4#566Ksenia Efremova

6-2 6-4#244Berfu Cengiz

6-3 6-3#344Manon Leonard

7-5 4-6 6-1#536Carson Tanguilig

6-2 7-5#532Jana Otzipka

6-4 6-0#107Kristina Liutova

6-3 6-2#125Marina Bassols Ribera

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#509Annika Penickova

7-5 6-4#185Mona Barthel

Lisa Pigato

12W 3L

6-0 7-6(7)#155Robin Montgomery

6-0 6-1#184Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#202Julia Avdeeva

1-6 6-0 6-3#179Eva Vedder

4-0 ret.#195Katie Swan

7-5 4-6 6-2#206Polona Hercog

6-4 6-2#441Adrienn Nagy

6-1 6-1#521Jasmijn Gimbrere

6-4 6-2#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-3 7-5#124Jeline Vandromme

6-4 1-6 6-4#139Susan Bandecchi

6-2 2-6 6-4#223Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-0 6-1—Sana Garakani

6-3 6-3#254Linda Klimovicova

6-2 5-5 ret.#272Aurora Zantedeschi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMartyna KubkaKubka

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Lisa PigatoPigatoLP

Lisa Pigato carries the stronger recent form — Martyna Kubka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.3%+8.5pp72.8%

1st Serve Won64.2%+1.8pp62.4%

2nd Serve Won52.4%+3.4pp49.0%

Aces / Match5.5+5.00.5

Double Faults / Match2.21.0 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.2%+5.8pp47.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted44.2%+9.1pp53.3%

Break Pts Saved56.0%+2.7pp58.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+2.3pp53.0%

Serve · 4–1

64.3%1st Serve In+8.5pp72.8%

64.2%1st Serve Won+1.8pp62.4%

52.4%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp49.0%

5.5Aces / Match+5.00.5

2.2Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

41.2%Return Pts Won+5.8pp47.0%

Pressure · 0–2

44.2%Break Pts Converted+9.1pp53.3%

56.0%Break Pts Saved+2.7pp58.7%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+2.3pp53.0%