ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinished

Predictions graded

Marina Bassols Ribera #125Spain2Erika Andreeva #182Russia0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 13:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarina Bassols Ribera · 57 places

Marina Bassols Ribera

Spain

Spanish right-hander born 13 December 1999. Reached a career-high No. 105 in February 2024; the WTA profile lists hard court as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #125
Peak ranking: #105 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 165 cm

Erika Andreeva

Russia

The ITF lists Andreeva as a 22-year-old right-hander whose preferred surface is clay. Her reported singles career high is No. 65, reached in October 2024.

Current ranking: #182
Peak ranking: #65 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Bassols Ribera and Andreeva meet in the Courmayeur second round separated by 57 ranking places and very little in the hard-court records.

Bassols Ribera is the narrow pick to win, and a straight-sets finish is the stronger sporting lean. No quoted price is worthwhile: 1.5 on a straight-sets finish needs 66.7% when the record points to 65%, and 1.85 on fewer than 21.5 games needs 54.1% against 52%.

Context

The second set is where Andreeva's hard-court file is strongest, at 8-4 across 12 matches, and it is the main threat to a two-set finish here. Two of those 12 second sets went to a tiebreak, so the edge has come in tight sets as well as one-sided ones.
- Hard-court sample 4 Aug – 28 Oct 2026: 12 completed matches, 2 retirements excluded
- Second sets: 8 won, 4 lost; 5.42 games won against 3.50 games lost per set
- Two of the 12 second sets were decided by a tiebreak
- First sets in the same sample: 7 won, 5 lost
That short-match pattern is the basis for expecting a two-set finish, since Bassols Ribera's 20.0-game average sits well below Andreeva's 22.67 games from 12 matches. Andreeva's file pulls the other way, with five tiebreak matches in 12.
- Hard-court sample 11 Aug – 27 Oct 2026: 10 completed matches, no retirements counted
- Scorelines: four 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, two 2-1 wins
- Average total games per match: 20.0; tiebreaks in 2 of 10 matches
- Latest match, 27 Oct 2026: 6-3 6-3 win over Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva
One week inside Bassols Ribera's own record holds a 1-6 4-6 loss to a player ranked 621 and a 6-3 6-3 win over a player ranked 211, so her recent form does not point in one direction. It is a caution against treating the 57-place ranking gap as a reliable separator in this second-round match.
- 23 Oct 2026, indoor hard: lost 1-6 4-6 to Jodie Anna Burrage, ranked 621
- 27 Oct 2026, indoor hard: beat Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva, ranked 211, 6-3 6-3
- Both matches completed, no retirement

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

−1.7ppshort

Both players have more straight-set than three-set results in the hard-court sample.

Total GameslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 21.5

1.85fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 54.1%

−2.1ppshort

Marina's shorter matches pull the combined total just below the line, and straight-set results are common.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marina is slightly higher ranked and has marginally better hard-court results, though the match is close.
- Ranked 125, with a 6-4 hard-court record in this sample
- Won 52% of hard-court games and 50.5% of total points
- Latest match: 6-3 6-3 win over Jimenez Kasintseva
- Erika has no serve or return metrics available
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarina Bassols RiberaEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Marina's shorter matches pull the combined total just below the line, and straight-set results are common.
- Marina hard-court total games average: 20.0
- Erika hard-court total games average: 22.67
- Combined set-evidence average: 21.45 games
- Marina's last four hard matches included three straight-set finishes
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both players have more straight-set than three-set results in the hard-court sample.
- Marina straight-set rate: 8 of 10 hard matches
- Erika straight-set rate: 7 of 12 hard matches
- Combined straight-set rate: 15 of 22 hard matches
- Marina's latest match finished 6-3 6-3
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Erika's 8-4 second-set record on hard is the clearest set-level edge in the match.
- Erika set2 record on hard: 8-4
- Marina set2 record on hard: 5-5
- Erika set2 wins include two tiebreaks
- Marina has two set2 tiebreaks in 10 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostErika AndreevaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marina's overall ranking and latest first set give her a narrow edge despite Erika's slightly better set1 record.
- Marina set1 record on hard: 5-5
- Erika set1 record on hard: 7-5
- Marina won the first set 6-3 in her latest match
- Erika has two set1 tiebreaks in 12 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarina Bassols RiberaEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Seven of 22 combined hard matches had a tiebreak, leaving no tiebreak as the more common outcome.
- Marina had tiebreaks in 2 of 10 hard matches
- Erika had tiebreaks in 5 of 12 hard matches
- Combined: 7 of 22 hard matches
- Marina has two set2 tiebreaks in 10 hard matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance66%

Prediction history

Marina Bassols Ribera: 4/6 recent winner projections matched

4 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Marina Bassols Ribera matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marina Bassols Ribera6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Toronto

#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva2-1#130Marina Bassols Ribera

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·62%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

WTA Toronto

#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva2-1#130Marina Bassols Ribera

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

62%probability

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva won

Missed

17 Jul·WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#218Maria Lourdes Carle

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·58%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#218Maria Lourdes Carle

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

58%probability

Marina Bassols Ribera won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#227Anna-Lena Friedsam

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·65%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#227Anna-Lena Friedsam

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

65%probability

Marina Bassols Ribera won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#147Lola Radivojevic1-2#143Marina Bassols Ribera

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·58%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#147Lola Radivojevic1-2#143Marina Bassols Ribera

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

58%probability

Marina Bassols Ribera won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA Modena

#144Marina Bassols Ribera1-2#102Darja Semenistaja

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·60%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#144Marina Bassols Ribera1-2#102Darja Semenistaja

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

60%probability

Darja Semenistaja won

Missed

Previous match context available

Marina Bassols Ribera

8W 7L

6-3 6-3#211Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-1 6-4#621Jodie Anna Burrage

6-1 0-6 6-2#313Lizette Cabrera

6-4 6-3#264Caroline Werner

3-6 6-3 6-3#204Francesca Curmi

6-1 6-3#528Ida Wobker

6-4 7-6(2)#67Kamilla Rakhimova

6-4 6-4#212Xiaodi You

6-1 6-1#1027Olivia Nicholls

6-3 3-6 6-4#138Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-4 6-2#280Eva Bennemann

6-2 6-1#138Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-3 6-2#147Martyna Kubka

4-6 7-6(0) 6-3#176Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-3#76Sinja Kraus

Erika Andreeva

8W 7L

7-6(2) 6-2#363Yelyzaveta Kotliar

5-7 6-1 6-4#233Anouk Koevermans

7-5 0-1 ret.#300Zongyu Li

6-0 6-0—Giulia Alessia Monteleone

6-3 4-6 6-2#255Lois Boisson

1-6 6-1 6-3#190Elena Pridankina

6-3 6-1#128Simona Waltert

6-3 6-2#154Polina Iatcenko

6-2 6-2#289Elena Micic

6-3 3-6 4-1 ret.#750Ilay Yoruk

6-3 7-6(5)#217Reese Brantmeier

6-7(4) 6-4 6-4#207Viktoria Hruncakova

6-4 7-6(5)#339Mariam Bolkvadze

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#168Mai Hontama

6-4 6-3#100Fiona Ferro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMarina Bassols RiberaRibera

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Erika AndreevaAndreevaEA

Erika Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Marina Bassols Ribera's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In61.0%+1.6pp62.6%

1st Serve Won62.0%+2.8pp64.8%

2nd Serve Won44.8%+5.2pp50.0%

Aces / Match1.1+1.72.8

Double Faults / Match4.92.6 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.8%+1.1pp44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.2%+4.3pp46.5%

Break Pts Saved60.1%+3.9pp56.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.3pp51.7%

Serve · 0–5

61.0%1st Serve In+1.6pp62.6%

62.0%1st Serve Won+2.8pp64.8%

44.8%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp50.0%

1.1Aces / Match+1.72.8

4.9Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

45.8%Return Pts Won+1.1pp44.7%

Pressure · 1–1

42.2%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp46.5%

60.1%Break Pts Saved+3.9pp56.2%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.7%