EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorFinished

Predictions graded

Tomas Barrios Vera #1550Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo #3282

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Thu 29 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTomas Barrios Vera · 173 places

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chilean right-hander, 191 cm, born 10 December 1997. Reliable profile search evidence confirms his current age and playing style; no adequately sourced preferred-surface or career-high detail was returned.

Current ranking: #155
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

He completed four consecutive ITF singles titles in August 2026. His published match record is predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #328
Peak ranking: #389
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking points to Barrios Vera, clay form points to Aguilar Cardozo: 155 against 328, but 12 wins in 14 completed clay matches for the lower-ranked man.

Barrios Vera's 64.8% first-serve points won and 7 of 9 first sets taken still make him the slightly likelier winner over three sets. The 1.65 asks for about 61% of the match, more than that case justifies; the 2.10 the other way was passed over too. No quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Aguilar Cardozo arrives with the busier winning habit of the two, though against a lighter ranking profile than Barrios Vera's.
The sample covers 14 completed clay matches from 28 August to 28 October, with one retirement excluded. Eight 2-0 wins and four 2-1 wins mean he has usually closed matches quickly, and his clay matches average 22.2 total games. Barrios Vera sits 173 places higher in the ranking, so this record speaks to recent match sharpness rather than to the level of opposition faced.
- Clay set evidence for Aguilar Cardozo covers 14 completed matches from 28 August 2026 to 28 October 2026, with 1 retirement excluded.
- Record across those 14 matches: 12 wins, 2 losses, with 8 wins in straight sets and 4 in three sets.
- Average total games across the 14 matches: 22.2 games.
The first set is where Barrios Vera's clay results have been most reliable, but the opponent's own opening-set record is stronger still.
Across nine clay matches from 21 July to 27 October, his first sets have finished 5.6-3.2 on average with no tiebreak at all. Getting ahead early has been a regular part of his clay week. Aguilar Cardozo has taken 11 of 14 first sets himself, so the opening set is more contested than a 7 of 9 record alone suggests.
- Barrios Vera's nine clay matches span 21 July 2026 to 27 October 2026.
- Set 1 record on clay: 7 wins, 2 losses, averaging 5.6 games won and 3.2 games lost.
- Set 1 total games average 8.8, with 0 first-set tiebreaks in the nine matches.
Barrios Vera is through and has match time on the surface this week, though his latest outing was not a wire-to-wire cruise.
The opening set was clean; the second needed a tiebreak to settle. He won 13 games to 8 across the two sets, so the straight-sets win carried some late resistance rather than a comfortable finish. It is the freshest evidence of his current clay form heading into this second round.
- 27 October 2026: beat Juan Estevez (ranked 350) 6-2 7-6 on clay.
- 13 games won against 8 lost, with the second set decided by a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Tomas Barrios Vera

1.65fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 60.6%

−4.6ppshort

The higher ranking and solid clay serve numbers give Barrios Vera a narrow advantage in a close match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
The higher ranking and solid clay serve numbers give Barrios Vera a narrow advantage in a close match.
- Barrios Vera is ranked 155; Aguilar Cardozo is ranked 328.
- On clay Barrios Vera has a 5-4 record and has won 7 of 9 first sets.
- His clay first-serve points won is 64.8% from 458 first serves.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTomas Barrios VeraEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have generally stayed short for both players on clay.
- Barrios Vera's first sets average 8.8 total games on clay.
- Aguilar Cardozo's first sets average 9.0 total games on clay.
- Only one first-set tiebreak appears in their combined 23 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar Cardozo's short straight-set wins make a total below 23.5 games slightly more likely.
- Aguilar Cardozo's clay matches average 22.2 total games.
- Eight of Aguilar Cardozo's 14 clay matches finished 2-0.
- The combined clay three-set rate for the two players is 10 of 23 matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been longer for both players and more likely to pass nine games.
- Barrios Vera's second sets average 10.2 total games on clay.
- Aguilar Cardozo's second sets average 9.6 total games on clay.
- Five second-set tiebreaks appear in their combined 23 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are common for both players, especially Aguilar Cardozo.
- Aguilar Cardozo has 8 straight-set wins in 14 clay matches.
- Barrios Vera has 4 straight-set wins in 9 clay matches.
- The combined clay two-set rate is 12 of 23 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barrios Vera's higher ranking and strong first-set record give him a slight first-set advantage.
- Barrios Vera has won 7 of 9 first sets on clay.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won 11 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Barrios Vera is ranked 155 against 328.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTomas Barrios VeraEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Barrios Vera's match advantage carries into a slight preference for him in the second set.
- Barrios Vera has won 6 of 9 second sets on clay.
- Aguilar Cardozo has won 10 of 14 second sets on clay.
- Barrios Vera is assessed at 56% to win the match.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTomas Barrios VeraEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' clay matches.
- The combined clay sample has 16 of 23 matches without a tiebreak.
- Barrios Vera had no first-set tiebreaks in nine clay matches.
- Aguilar Cardozo had two second-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Tomas Barrios Vera

8W 7L

6-2 7-6(12)#350Juan Estevez

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#854Nicolas Jarry

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(2)#466Miguel Tobon

6-4 6-2#257Franco Roncadelli

4-6 6-4 6-3#184Guido Ivan Justo

6-1 3-6 6-3#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-2 6-3#298Juan Bautista Torres

6-1 6-1#519Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-3 6-4 6-2#27Alexander Blockx

6-4 6-3#235Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-1#255Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-2 5-7 6-0#177Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(5) 6-2#263Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

7-6(4) 6-2#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-4 4-6 6-1#252Dylan Dietrich

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

12W 3L

6-3 6-3#466Miguel Tobon

6-0 2-1 ret.#396Felipe Meligeni Alves

7-6(1) 2-6 7-6(9)#189Lautaro Midon

6-2 7-5#713Nicolas Villalon

6-3 0-6 6-3#519Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-1 6-7(3) 6-0#712Santiago De La Fuente

6-4 6-3#212Alex Barrena

6-2 6-4#204Juan Pablo Varillas

7-5 6-7(5) 6-4#130Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-1#352Carlos Maria Zarate

6-1 6-2—Mateo Del Pino

6-4 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 6-2#352Carlos Maria Zarate

4-6 6-4 7-6(2)#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-1 6-3#833Lorenzo Gagliardo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TVTomas Barrios VeraVera

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Joaquin Aguilar CardozoCardozoJC

Tomas Barrios Vera carries the stronger recent form — Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1564.1%+3.2pp67.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.4%+1.4pp65.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.6%+5.9pp47.7%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.7+0.90.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.30.3 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1541.1%+5.3pp46.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.0%+13.6pp51.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1566.9%+3.8pp63.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.2%+1.8pp53.0%

Serve · 4–1

64.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp67.3%

66.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp65.0%

53.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp47.7%

1.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.90.8

2.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.3 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

41.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp46.4%

Pressure · 1–1

38.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+13.6pp51.6%

66.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp63.1%

Points · 0–1

51.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.8pp53.0%