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Predictions graded

Remy Bertola #219Switzerland0Denis Shapovalov #47Canada2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–60%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDenis Shapovalov · 172 places

Remy Bertola

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Public player records list hard as his preferred surface and show a career-best ranking reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: #176 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

Reached career-high No. 10 on 2020-09-21. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #47
Peak ranking: #10 · 2020
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest

A world No. 219 with two indoor wins this week meets a top-50 left-hander whose last completed match was on 3 October.

Shapovalov should come through, but 1.25 to win asks more than the evidence supports. The prices with a case are Over 2.5 sets at 2.6 and Over 24.5 games at 2.2; Bertola at 3.2 in either set or with a 1.5-game start, and at 4.0 to win, also carry a case.

Context

Shapovalov is the higher-ranked player but arrives without a completed match in the three weeks before Basel.
That Tabilo win was tight in games, 16 to 15, and needed a third set. There is no completed match in the record between then and Basel, so his current level is unconfirmed rather than proven either way. Bertola played on 24 and 25 October, which makes his match sharpness the more current of the two.
- 3 October 2026: Shapovalov beat Alejandro Tabilo (ranked 31) 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, winning 16 games to 15 games.
- That entry is his latest completed match; the Basel first round is scheduled for 27 October 2026.
Bertola is the lower-ranked player but the one arriving with completed matches behind him.
The Brunold win ran 13 games to 10 games and included a first-set tiebreak, so it was not a comfortable afternoon despite the straight-set score. It is his most recent completed match, which means his competitive rhythm is current. One match is a thin sample, so it speaks more to activity than to level.
- 25 October 2026: Bertola beat Mika Brunold (ranked 195) 7-6, 6-4, winning 13 games to 10 games on indoor hard courts.
The opening set has been the most reliable part of Shapovalov's recent hard-court record.
Only two of those ten first sets reached a tiebreak, and the games margin of 5.9 against 4.6 shows most of them were settled before a shootout. Bertola counters with nine first-set wins in 14, so both men start well. The edge here is narrow in games, and one early break tends to decide sets of this shape.
- 31 July to 3 October 2026, ten completed hard-court best-of-three matches: Shapovalov 7-3 in first sets, averaging 5.9 games won against 4.6 games lost, with two first-set tiebreaks.
- Two retired matches were excluded from that sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shapovalov is higher ranked and has the stronger hard-court record in the available evidence.
- Shapovalov is ranked 47; Bertola is ranked 219.
- Shapovalov is 9-4 in his last 15 hard-court matches.
- Bertola is 7-8 in his last 15 hard-court matches.
- Shapovalov's hard-court best-of-three set evidence is 7-3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDenis ShapovalovEstimated chance70%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shapovalov is favored to win, and four of his six recent completed hard-court matches cleared this small game line.
- Shapovalov's recent hard-court game margins: +1, +7, -5, +6, +7, +3.
- He clears -1.5 in four of those six matches.
- Bertola's recent margins: +3, +9, -2, +1, +2, -4.
- Shapovalov is ranked 47; Bertola is 219.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDenis Shapovalov -1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both players' hard-court samples average above ten games.
- Bertola's set1 average total is 10.6 games.
- Shapovalov's set1 average total is 10.5 games.
- Bertola has three set1 tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Shapovalov has two set1 tiebreaks in ten.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bertola's second sets regularly go beyond nine games, lifting the match total.
- Bertola's set2 average total is 11.1 games.
- Shapovalov's set2 average total is 9.8 games.
- Bertola has six set2 tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Shapovalov has one set2 tiebreak in ten.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players' hard-court matches have trended near or above this total.
- Bertola's hard-court best-of-three matches average 27.1 total games.
- Shapovalov's average is 25.2 total games.
- Both players average 2.5 sets per match.
- Bertola's recent completed matches include totals of 28, 35 and 38 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shapovalov's higher ranking and strong first-set record give him the advantage.
- Shapovalov wins the first set in seven of ten hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Bertola wins the first set in nine of 14.
- Shapovalov is ranked 47; Bertola is 219.
- Shapovalov's set1 average is 5.9 games won to 4.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDenis ShapovalovEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shapovalov has the better second-set record in the available hard-court sample.
- Shapovalov wins the second set in six of ten hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Bertola wins the second set in six of 14.
- Shapovalov's set2 average is 5.2 games won to 4.6 lost.
- Bertola's set2 average is 5.7 won to 5.4 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDenis ShapovalovEstimated chance61%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bertola's matches frequently include a tiebreak, and both players have close set patterns.
- Bertola has a tiebreak in eight of 14 hard-court best-of-three matches.
- Shapovalov has a tiebreak in three of ten.
- Bertola has six set2 tiebreaks in 14.
- Shapovalov has one set2 tiebreak in ten.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Remy Bertola

7W 8L

7-6(5) 6-4#195Mika Brunold

6-2 6-1#869Jakub Paul

3-6 6-3 6-4#657David Goffin

3-6 7-6(6) 7-6(4)#135Federico Cina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 7-5#145Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-5 7-5#121Otto Virtanen

3-6 7-5 6-3#318Lucas Poullain

6-4 6-3#812Alexandre Reco

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#102Jesper De Jong

3-6 6-4 10-8#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#209Edas Butvilas

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#223Jerome Kym

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#213Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-4#232Alejandro Moro Canas

7-5 7-6(2)#203Andre Ilagan

Denis Shapovalov

9W 6L

7-6(3) 2-1 ret.#3Carlos Alcaraz

7-5 3-6 6-4#31Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 6-1#109Sho Shimabukuro

6-7(8) 6-3 6-3#30Hubert Hurkacz

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#79Adrian Mannarino

6-2 6-3#66Vit Kopriva

6-4 7-6(3)#60Tallon Griekspoor

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#4Ben Shelton

6-0 6-4 7-6(7)#48Luca Van Assche

6-4 4-6 6-4 6-1#57Miomir Kecmanovic

7-5 4-6 7-5#11Rafael Jodar

6-1 6-4#79Adrian Mannarino

4-6 6-4 3-0 ret.#77Zachary Svajda

6-3 6-4#44Arthur Gea

6-3 5-7 6-4#40Cameron Norrie

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RBRemy BertolaBertola

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Denis ShapovalovShapovalovDS

Denis Shapovalov carries the stronger recent form — Remy Bertola's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1559.1%—59.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1574.0%—74.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.8%+2.7pp50.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.4+3.38.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.71.0 fewer5.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1536.1%+1.6pp37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1539.3%+11.7pp51.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1561.0%+2.1pp63.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.3%+0.9pp51.2%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

59.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—59.2%

74.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—74.2%

52.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.7pp50.1%

5.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.38.7

4.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.0 fewer5.7

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

39.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+11.7pp51.0%

61.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+2.1pp63.1%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+0.9pp51.2%

Remy Bertola

Denis Shapovalov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 24.5

Over 2.5

Remy Bertola

Remy Bertola +1.5

Remy Bertola

Remy Bertola

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Remy Bertola

Denis Shapovalov

Stat Battle