MexicoWTA QueretaroFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Dasha Plekhanova #779Canada0Miriam Bianca Bulgaru #377Romania2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 00:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMiriam Bianca Bulgaru · 402 places

Dasha Plekhanova

Canada

Plekhanova's structured profile lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #779
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

Romania

Bulgaru, 27, is a right-hander whose listed preferred surface is hard. She reached a career-high No. 168 in September 2025.

Current ranking: #377
Peak ranking: #168 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Bulgaru brings 13 clay matches and a 377 ranking; Plekhanova brings two wins in two days against lower-ranked opponents.

Bulgaru's deeper body of work makes her the likelier winner, but her 6-7 clay record and 4-9 first-set mark keep it open. Plekhanova at 2.3 is the one reviewed price with a small edge; Bulgaru at 1.6, Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 and Over 19.5 games at 1.6 all ask too much.

Context

Plekhanova arrives at Queretaro with two quick straight-set clay wins and no dropped sets on the surface in this window.
Plekhanova beat Victoria Hu (ranked 539) 6-2 6-3 and Demi Tran (ranked 636) 6-3 6-1, averaging 6 games won to 2.5 in first sets and 6 to 2 in second sets. Both matches were closed out without a tiebreak and averaged 16.5 total games. The sample is two matches in one day against opponents outside the top 500, so it establishes current clay form without showing how she copes with a higher-ranked opponent.
- Plekhanova beat Victoria Hu (ranked 539) 6-2 6-3 on 26 October 2026.
- Plekhanova beat Demi Tran (ranked 636) 6-3 6-1 on 26 October 2026.
- Across her two clay matches she averaged 16.5 total games with no tiebreaks.
Bulgaru's clay season has been busy and volatile, with long matches and a striking number of straight-set losses.
Five of those 13 matches went to three sets, giving an average of 2.38 sets per match, and six finished 0-2. The pattern is a player whose clay matches are rarely brief but who also loses plenty of them without taking a set. Only two of the 13 were 2-0 wins, which leaves a straight-set result either way firmly in play for this first round.
- Bulgaru is 6-7 across 13 clay matches from 21 July to 8 October 2026.
- Her clay matches average 20.4 total games and 2.38 sets.
- Six of the 13 finished as 0-2 losses; only two were 2-0 wins.
Bulgaru's most recent tracked clay match was a heavy straight-set defeat against a much higher-ranked opponent.
That 3-6 1-6 scoreline sits alongside the six straight-set losses in her 13-match clay window. Curmi, ranked 204, is far above Plekhanova's 779, so the margin is not a forecast of a similar score in this first round. It does show how quickly Bulgaru's clay matches can get away from her, and it came 19 days before this match.
- Bulgaru lost 3-6 1-6 to Francesca Curmi (ranked 204) on 8 October 2026, winning four games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Plekhanova's two clay wins were both 2-0, and six of Bulgaru's 13 clay matches were straight-set losses.

Total GameslostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 19.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Bulgaru's clay matches average 20.4 games and nearly 40% go to three sets, so a competitive match can pass 19.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaru is ranked 402 places higher and has a much larger clay sample, while Plekhanova's wins came against lower-ranked opponents.
- Bulgaru is ranked 377 versus Plekhanova's 779.
- Bulgaru has 13 clay matches in this window; Plekhanova has two.
- Plekhanova's two clay wins came against players ranked 539 and 636.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMiriam Bianca BulgaruEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Plekhanova has covered this margin in both clay matches, and Bulgaru's recent clay results include several heavy losses.
- Plekhanova's clay game margin is +15 over two matches, +7.5 per match.
- Bulgaru's six recent clay matches give a game margin of -24, -4.0 per match.
- Bulgaru has lost nine of 13 clay first sets.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDasha Plekhanova +3.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bulgaru's recent clay second sets have all stayed under 9.5 games, and Plekhanova's two were also low.
- Bulgaru's clay second sets average 8.3 total games.
- Plekhanova's two clay second sets totalled 7 and 9 games.
- All six of Bulgaru's recent clay second sets stayed under 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Bulgaru's clay matches average 20.4 games and nearly 40% go to three sets, so a competitive match can pass 19.5.
- Bulgaru's clay matches average 20.4 total games.
- Five of Bulgaru's 13 clay matches went to three sets.
- Plekhanova's two clay matches averaged 16.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 19.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Plekhanova's two clay wins were both 2-0, and six of Bulgaru's 13 clay matches were straight-set losses.
- Plekhanova won both clay matches 2-0.
- Six of Bulgaru's 13 clay matches were 0-2 losses.
- Bulgaru's totalSetsAverage is 2.38.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Plekhanova has won both clay first sets by wide margins, while Bulgaru has lost nine of 13 first sets.
- Plekhanova's clay set1 record is 2-0 with a 6-2.5 average.
- Bulgaru's clay set1 record is 4-9 with a 3.38-5.23 average.
- Bulgaru has lost nine of 13 clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDasha PlekhanovaEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
No tiebreaks appear in the combined 15 clay matches tracked for the two players.
- No tiebreaks in Plekhanova's two clay matches.
- No tiebreaks in Bulgaru's 13 clay matches.
- Bulgaru's clay matches average 20.4 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%

Previous match context available

Dasha Plekhanova

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#636Demi Tran

6-2 6-3#539Victoria Hu

6-2 7-6(1)#627Hong Yi Cody Wong

6-1 6-4#368Jia-Jing Lu

6-1 6-1—Kaya Moe

4-6 6-4 6-4#313Lizette Cabrera

3-0 ret.#378Sahaja Yamalapalli

6-0 6-0—Aryn Walker

6-0 4-6 7-6(2)#716Mayu Crossley

6-4 6-0#806Ava Hrastar

3-6 6-3 6-4—Abigail Haile

7-6(5) 6-0—Sophie Suh

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4#675Anne Christine Lutkemeyer

6-0 6-2—Armira Kockinis

6-2 6-3—Anya Arora

Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6W 9L

0-3 ret.—Juliette Mazzoni

6-3 6-1#204Francesca Curmi

2-6 6-2 6-3#527Josy Daems

6-1 6-2#370Loes Ebeling Koning

6-3 6-3#185Mia Ristic

6-4 1-6 6-2#370Lina Gjorcheska

4-6 6-3 6-2#213Irene Burillo

1-6 6-3 7-5#270Federica Urgesi

6-4 4-1 ret.#360Maria Golovina

6-4 6-1—Alina Yuneva

6-3 6-4#188Samira De Stefano

6-2 6-4#399Natalija Senic

6-1 6-3#206Carole Monnet

6-3 6-2#99Francesca Jones

3-6 6-1 6-2#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DPDasha PlekhanovaPlekhanova

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Miriam Bianca BulgaruBulgaruMB

Dasha Plekhanova carries the stronger recent form — Miriam Bianca Bulgaru's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In59.6%—59.2%

1st Serve Won63.0%+5.2pp57.8%

2nd Serve Won44.5%+2.8pp41.7%

Aces / Match2.9+2.00.9

Double Faults / Match4.3—4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.9%+6.4pp44.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted57.7%+11.9pp45.8%

Break Pts Saved49.5%+3.4pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.3%+5.5pp47.8%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

59.6%1st Serve In—59.2%

63.0%1st Serve Won+5.2pp57.8%

44.5%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp41.7%

2.9Aces / Match+2.00.9

4.3Double Faults / Match—4.1

Return · 1–0

50.9%Return Pts Won+6.4pp44.5%

Pressure · 1–1

57.7%Break Pts Converted+11.9pp45.8%

49.5%Break Pts Saved+3.4pp52.9%

Points · 1–0

53.3%Total Pts Won+5.5pp47.8%