South KoreaSeoul - South KoreaFinished

Predictions graded

Sho Shimabukuro #109Japan2Jan Kumstat #192Czechia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-0Tue 27 Oct 2026, 02:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–186%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSho Shimabukuro · 83 places

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

Japanese right-hander, 180 cm, who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 135 in October 2023. No reliable current source in the requested searches established a preferred surface or an active injury issue.

Current ranking: #109
Peak ranking: #135 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

Nineteen-year-old Czech right-hander with a two-handed backhand, standing 196 cm. He reached career-high No. 336 in August 2026 and is listed as preferring hard courts.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #336 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:26 · Europe/Bucharest

A higher-ranked but hard-court-struggling Shimabukuro against a 192-ranked Kumstat whose 11-3 run has barely touched hard courts: that is the puzzle in Seoul.

Shimabukuro's ranking and the quality of his recent opposition make him the likelier winner over three sets. Neither quoted price rewards that view, with 1.73 on Shimabukuro and 2.0 on Kumstat both asking for more than their records justify.

Context

The pattern sits with Shimabukuro: slow starts have been the norm in this window, whatever the final result.
Kumstat's clearest route into the match is the opening set, which is where the first-set forecast leans his way. Only four of those 14 matches reached a third set, which is the basis for the shorter under-lines on sets and games. The sample covers a single hard-court window from late July to late October, not a long-term rate.
- 14 completed hard-court best-of-three matches between 28 July and 22 October 2026.
- First sets: 4-10. Second sets: 6-8. Total games average: 21.9.
- Only four of the 14 matches went to a third set.
This places the fixture in the Seoul Challenger main draw and identifies the hard-court setting. It provides the immediate tournament context for the matchup rather than a player-specific development. The available schedule information does not establish a court assignment or a reliable exact start time.
- The Seoul Challenger round-of-32 match is scheduled for 27 October on hard court.
ReportedSources checked 26 Oct 2026, 03:24 · Europe/BucharestFanzizwww.fanziz.com · 26 Oct 2026
A reminder of the level Shimabukuro can reach on this surface.
That result is the strongest single piece of evidence that Shimabukuro, ranked 109, can still handle a top-70 opponent at this level. It is one match, and it sits alongside a 5-10 hard-court record in the same window, so it argues for him as the likelier winner rather than for any particular margin.
- 20 October 2026: Shimabukuro beat Roman Safiullin (ranked 70) 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 on indoor hard court.
- The match lasted three sets, with Shimabukuro winning 18 games to 15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sho Shimabukuro

1.73fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 57.8%

−3.8ppshort

Sho has faced stronger recent opposition and owns the higher ranking, while Jan's overall wins have not carried onto hard courts.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sho has faced stronger recent opposition and owns the higher ranking, while Jan's overall wins have not carried onto hard courts.
- Sho is ranked 109; Jan is ranked 192.
- Sho is 5-10 on hard in this window; Jan is 1-2 on hard.
- Sho recently beat Safiullin (70); Jan recently lost to Mmoh (147) and Fearnley (87).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSho ShimabukuroEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sho's matches have generally been short, which keeps the total under the line more often than not.
- Sho's hard best-of-three matches average 21.9 total games.
- Jan's three hard matches average 24.7 total games.
- Sho's recent six matches averaged about 20.5 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance56%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes have been more common in Sho's hard-court matches.
- Sho's hard matches average 2.29 sets.
- Only four of Sho's 14 hard best-of-three matches went to three sets.
- Jan has one three-set match in three hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sho's larger sample is only slightly below even, and Jan's positive second-set record is too small to trust.
- Sho has a 6-8 second-set record in hard best-of-three matches.
- Jan has a 2-1 second-set record on hard.
- Sho's hard matches average 9.0 second-set games; Jan's average 11.7.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSho ShimabukuroEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sho's poor first-set record gives Jan a slight opening to take the first set.
- Sho has a 4-10 first-set record in hard best-of-three matches.
- Jan has a 1-2 first-set record on hard.
- Sho lost five of six recent first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJan KumstatEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sho's matches usually avoid tiebreaks, which makes a tiebreak-free match more likely.
- Sho had a tiebreak in three of 14 hard best-of-three matches.
- Jan had a tiebreak in two of three hard matches.
- Jan's hard sample is only three matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%

Prediction history

Sho Shimabukuro: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Sho Shimabukuro matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Sho Shimabukuro4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#94Sho Shimabukuro2-0#144Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

BetBugsSho Shimabukuro to win·58%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#94Sho Shimabukuro2-0#144Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Sho Shimabukuro to win

58%probability

Sho Shimabukuro won

Matched

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#89Sho Shimabukuro1-3#97Jaime Faria

BetBugsSho Shimabukuro to win·55%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#89Sho Shimabukuro1-3#97Jaime Faria

Sho Shimabukuro to win

55%probability

Jaime Faria won

Missed

11 Jun·ATP Stuttgart

#104Sho Shimabukuro2-1#835Nick Kyrgios

BetBugsSho Shimabukuro to win·58%

Matched

11 Jun 2026

ATP Stuttgart

#104Sho Shimabukuro2-1#835Nick Kyrgios

Sho Shimabukuro to win

58%probability

Sho Shimabukuro won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#103Sho Shimabukuro2-0#130Shintaro Mochizuki

BetBugsSho Shimabukuro to win·58%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#103Sho Shimabukuro2-0#130Shintaro Mochizuki

Sho Shimabukuro to win

58%probability

Sho Shimabukuro won

Matched

Previous match context available

Sho Shimabukuro

5W 10L

6-2 6-1#5Daniil Medvedev

6-7(4) 6-4 6-4#70Roman Safiullin

6-2 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

7-5 6-1#47Denis Shapovalov

6-4 6-4#93Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-3#487Anton Shepp

3-6 6-3 6-4#897James Watt

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(4) 6-2#61Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-3#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-2 6-4#30Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 3-6 7-5#216Jeff Wolf

6-3 6-1#118Hugo Dellien

7-6(2) 6-1#84Marin Cilic

6-3 6-4#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6-7(4) 7-5 6-2#263Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Jan Kumstat

12W 3L

6-1 6-7(3) 6-3#147Michael Mmoh

6-4 6-3#87Jacob Fearnley

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#209Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-3#204Juan Pablo Varillas

5-7 6-3 6-0#217Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 6-4#286Filip Cristian Jianu

6-1 7-5#234Maxim Mrva

7-5 6-3#281Sumit Nagal

7-5 6-1#422Petr Brunclik

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#226Marvin Moeller

6-4 5-7 6-2#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

7-5 ret.#447Carlos Taberner

6-4 7-6(4)#205Max Houkes

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#598Jamie Mackenzie

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#880Tom Zeuch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SSSho ShimabukuroShimabukuro

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Jan KumstatKumstatJK

Jan Kumstat carries the stronger recent form — Sho Shimabukuro's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1557.3%+2.4pp54.9%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1565.3%+11.8pp77.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1547.1%+9.6pp56.7%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/154.5+3.17.6

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.91.7 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1533.5%+4.1pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1540.6%+4.4pp36.2%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1556.9%+15.9pp72.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1546.3%+6.1pp52.4%

Serve · 1–4

57.3%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+2.4pp54.9%

65.3%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+11.8pp77.1%

47.1%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+9.6pp56.7%

4.5Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+3.17.6

3.9Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.7 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

33.5%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+4.1pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

40.6%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+4.4pp36.2%

56.9%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+15.9pp72.8%

Points · 0–1

46.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+6.1pp52.4%