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Predictions graded

Nicolas Jarry #8540Hugo Dellien #118Bolivia2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Dellien · 736 places

Nicolas Jarry

Reached a career-high No. 16 and is now ranked 867 after a right elbow injury cut his 2026 season short in April. The 201 cm right-hander has played 12 of his last 15 matches on clay or immediately around the South American swing.

Current ranking: #854
Peak ranking: #16
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 201 cm

Hugo Dellien

Bolivia

Dellien reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 64 in August 2022. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public sources place him at No. 141 entering this event.

Current ranking: #118
Peak ranking: #64 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 14:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellien's clay form against Jarry's ranking gap makes a straight-sets win for the second seed the likely shape of this, but Jarry's 2023 head-to-head win and long clay sets argue for something scrappier.

Dellien to win at 1.73 and Dellien 2-0 at 2.6 both offer something, and his first- and second-set prices at 1.75 and 1.8 do too; Jarry at 2.0 does not.

Context

That scoreline is the main counterweight to the ranking gap: Jarry has already solved Dellien on this surface without dropping a set. It is a three-year-old result, though, and Jarry's eight tracked clay matches in 2026 produced a 4-4 record while Dellien has gone 10-3. It argues against expecting a one-sided scoreline rather than for a repeat of 2023.
- Head-to-head: 30 May 2023, clay, Jarry won 6-4 6-4 6-2.
Dellien's 2026 clay sample is 13 matches, small enough that one long match can shift the averages.
Only two of those 13 matches went to a third set, and one of them was his most recent appearance, a 0-2 loss to Thiago Seyboth Wild on 18 October. That short-match pattern is the basis for expecting a quick finish here. Jarry's clay sets have run the other way, averaging 27.25 games with a tiebreak in five of eight, so the two records pull in different directions.
- Dellien: 13 clay matches tracked 1 September to 18 October 2026, 10-3 record, nine 2-0 wins, 20.54 games average per match.
Jarry's place in the main draw comes through a wildcard rather than a seed. That frames this as an early-round meeting between an unseeded entrant and one of the event's leading seeds. The entry route does not establish his current physical condition or competitive level.
- Jarry is listed among the singles main-draw wildcards for Guayaquil.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:18 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Challenger Ciudad de Guayaquilen.wikipedia.org · 24 Oct 2026
Dellien's No. 2 seeding places him among the highest-ranked players in this draw. It gives the match a clear tournament-stakes context because Jarry is facing a leading seed in the opening round. The seed reflects the draw position and does not describe the players' head-to-head history.
- Dellien is listed as the second seed with a 19 October ranking of No. 118.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 14:18 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Challenger Ciudad de Guayaquilen.wikipedia.org · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Dellien's much stronger current clay record and set-by-set dominance make him the clear favorite.
- Dellien is 10-3 on clay in the tracked window and ranked No. 118; Jarry is 4-4 on clay and ranked No. 854.
- Dellien has won 10 of 13 first sets and 10 of 13 second sets on clay.
- Dellien has nine 2-0 wins among his 13 clay matches.
- Jarry lost his latest clay match 0-2 to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance74%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's short clay matches make an under-23.5 total more likely.
- Dellien's clay matches average 20.54 games.
- Dellien has nine 2-0 wins in 13 clay matches.
- Jarry's clay matches average 27.25 games.
- Jarry has five tiebreaks in eight clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jarry's second sets are long and tiebreak-heavy, lifting the chance of over.
- Jarry's clay second sets average 11.63 total games.
- Dellien's clay second sets average 9.54 total games.
- Jarry has four second-set tiebreaks in eight clay matches.
- Dellien has no second-set tiebreaks in 13.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages sit near or above the line.
- Dellien's clay first sets average 9.77 total games.
- Jarry's clay first sets average 10.13 total games.
- Jarry has three first-set tiebreaks in eight clay matches.
- Dellien has one first-set tiebreak in 13.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's straight-set wins and short match average point to a two-set finish.
- Dellien has won nine of 13 clay matches in straight sets.
- Dellien's clay matches average 2.15 sets.
- Jarry is 4-4 on clay and an underdog.
- Dellien has played only two three-set matches in 13.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Dellien's first-set record and overall clay form make him the clearer starter.
- Dellien has won 10 of 13 first sets on clay.
- Jarry has lost 3 of 8 first sets on clay.
- Dellien is 10-3 on clay in this window.
- Jarry lost his latest match 0-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Dellien's second-set record is stronger than Jarry's even split.
- Dellien has won 10 of 13 second sets on clay.
- Jarry has split his eight second sets 4-4.
- Dellien is 10-3 on clay.
- Jarry's latest match ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHugo DellienEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Dellien's straight-set clay record and set dominance support a two-set win.
- Dellien has nine 2-0 wins in 13 clay matches.
- Dellien has won 10 of 13 first sets and 10 of 13 second sets.
- Jarry has lost 0-2 once and 1-2 three times in eight clay matches.
- Jarry lost his latest match 0-2.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonHugo Dellien 2-0Estimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellien's short matches and low tiebreak rate make a tiebreak less likely.
- Jarry has had a tiebreak in 5 of 8 clay matches.
- Dellien has had a tiebreak in 1 of 13 clay matches.
- Jarry has five tiebreaks across eight clay matches.
- Dellien has one tiebreak across 13 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-4 6-2Nicolas Jarry#854vHugo Dellien#118May 30, 2023

1 total meetings

Nicolas Jarry

5W 10L

7-6(5) 6-4#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#155Tomas Barrios Vera

6-2 3-6 6-0#163Elmer Moller

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 7-6(4)#137Jurij Rodionov

6-1 6-4#584Nerman Fatic

6-2 7-6(5)#251Dominic Stricker

6-1 ret.#342Miguel Damas

6-3 6-1#68Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 6-1#97Adam Walton

6-4 4-6 7-6(7)#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-3 5-7 6-2#95Dino Prizmic

7-6(6) 6-7(4) 6-3#56Jaime Faria

6-4 6-3#69Titouan Droguet

6-3 6-4#11Rafael Jodar

7-6(4) 6-3#161Tom Gentzsch

Hugo Dellien

10W 5L

6-3 2-0 ret.#253Juan Manuel La Serna

6-4 6-3#111Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-4 6-3#253Juan Manuel La Serna

6-2 6-4#541Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-3 7-5#263Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 7-5—Bernardo Munk Mesa

4-6 7-5 6-0#330Nicolas Kicker

5-7 6-4 6-4#240Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

5-3 ret.#138Matej Dodig

6-3 6-2#396Felipe Meligeni Alves

7-6 6-4#198Facundo Mena

6-4 6-1#546Pedro Vives Marcos

6-2 6-4#342Miguel Damas

6-4 6-0#408Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-3 6-3#262Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NJNicolas JarryJarry

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Hugo DellienDellienHD

Hugo Dellien carries the stronger recent form — Nicolas Jarry's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1567.6%+2.1pp69.7%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1572.1%+8.6pp63.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1548.4%+5.9pp54.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.0+6.01.0

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.7—1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1535.8%+7.9pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1533.0%+24.8pp57.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1554.9%+1.9pp56.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.4%+2.9pp52.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

67.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp69.7%

72.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.6pp63.5%

48.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp54.3%

7.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+6.01.0

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—1.9

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–2

33.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+24.8pp57.8%

54.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp56.8%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.9pp52.3%

Nicolas Jarry

Hugo Dellien

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Nicolas Jarry

Hugo Dellien

Stat Battle