United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Timo Legout #351France2Andrew Fenty #456United States1

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 6-3Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimo Legout · 105 places

Timo Legout

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 406 on 29 May 2023. The supplied structured data lists him at No. 535; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #351
Peak ranking: #406 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #456
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout's stronger return game against Fenty's heavier serve is the tension in this qualifying round.

Legout's 10-5 hard-court record and 44.9% return points won make him the likelier winner, with straight sets the more common shape. The prices agree with the field too closely to reward: 1.40 for the match and 1.45 for the second set ask more than the form justifies, and 1.50 for the first set is about fair. No quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Legout's fast starts are the most one-sided part of his recent record.
Fenty has won 9 of his 15 first sets, so this is an edge in degree rather than a one-sided pattern. Legout's 5.6 games to 3.4 in opening sets suggests he is usually ahead early, while Fenty's first serve gives him a route to keep the opener closer.
- 16 August to 21 October 2026: Legout won 12 of 15 first sets across completed hard-court matches.
- He averaged 5.6 games won and 3.4 games lost in first sets over those 15 matches.
- Two of those 15 first sets went to a tiebreak.
Fenty's first serve is the part of his game that can shorten points and hold him in rallies he does not control.
That serve is his best route to staying close, because he won only 37.6% of return points across the same 15 matches. If the first serve lands at his usual 62.8% rate he can hold without long rallies; if it drops, his return game offers little support.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked: 78 aces at 5.2 per match.
- First serve in: 62.8% (653 of 1039 points).
- First-serve points won: 68.3% (446 of 653).
- Return points won: 37.6% (385 of 1023).
It is the sharpest example in the sample of Legout's level falling away after a dominant start.
The opponent was ranked well below him, which makes the turnaround more striking than a routine loss. One match proves little, but it is a reminder that his first-set strength does not always carry through the match, and a caution against reading his opening sets as control from start to finish.
- 14 October 2026, hard court: Legout won set one 6-0, then lost 3-6, 2-6.
- Opponent Zsombor Velcz was ranked 889.
- The match was completed, not a retirement.
Fenty comes in with very little gap between competitive matches, while Legout's last completed match was on 21 October.
The scheduling difference is clear from the dates: Fenty played on 25 October and again here, Legout had five days between matches. The record does not say how the quick turnaround will affect Fenty, so it is noted as a difference in preparation rather than a reason to expect tiredness or a drop in level.
- 25 October 2026: Fenty beat Cooper Woestendick 7-5, 6-2, taking 13 games to 7.
- The match was completed, not a retirement.
- It was his most recent completed match before this fixture; Legout's last was on 21 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Timo Legout

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

−9.4ppshort

Legout has the stronger return and better game share, giving him the stronger case for the match.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Timo Legout

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Legout's second-set record is solid, but less dominant than his first-set numbers.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Legout has the stronger return and better game share, giving him the stronger case for the match.
- Legout is 10-5 on hard, Fenty 8-7.
- Legout wins 52.6% of total points and 56.8% of games; Fenty 50.0% and 50.9%.
- Legout's return points won is 44.9% against Fenty's 37.6%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's longer first sets lift the combined expectation just above the 9.5 line.
- Legout's first sets average 9.0 total games; Fenty's average 10.3.
- Fenty's first sets include 1 tiebreak in 15 matches.
- Legout's first sets include 2 tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set games have tended to stay just under the line.
- Legout's second sets average 9.5 total games.
- Fenty's second sets average 9.3 total games.
- Neither player has a second-set tiebreak in the set evidence.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two players' recent hard-court matches sit almost exactly on the total-games line.
- Legout's hard-court matches average 21.6 total games; Fenty's average 21.9.
- Set-one games average 9.0 for Legout and 10.3 for Fenty.
- Their combined recent match lengths sit close to the 21.5 line.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome for both players.
- Legout's scorelines include 10 two-set finishes from 15.
- Fenty's scorelines include 11 two-set finishes from 15.
- Combined average sets played is about 2.3.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Legout's first-set record is the strongest set split in the match.
- Legout has won 12 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Fenty has won 9 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Legout's first-set average is 5.6 games won to 3.4 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Legout's second-set record is solid, but less dominant than his first-set numbers.
- Legout has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Fenty has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Legout's second-set games won average is 5.3 to 4.2 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTimo LegoutEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent sets have been decided before a tiebreak.
- Legout has had a tiebreak in 3 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Fenty has had a tiebreak in 1 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 4 of 30 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined rate is slightly under 7.5, with Legout limiting his double faults.
- Legout averages 2.9 double faults per match; Fenty 4.2.
- Their combined average is about 7.1 per match.
- Legout has 43 double faults in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's ace rate alone puts the combined total near the line, with Legout adding little.
- Fenty averages 5.2 aces per match; Legout 0.7.
- Fenty has 78 aces in 15 hard-court matches.
- Legout has 11 aces in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance56%

Previous match context available

Timo Legout

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#99Jenson Brooksby

6-3 6-1#401Edward Winter

0-6 6-3 6-2#889Zsombor Velcz

6-7(5) 7-5 7-5#266Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

2-6 7-5 7-5#200Tristan Boyer

6-3 6-3#218Colton Smith

7-5 6-7(5) 6-2#319Daniel Milavsky

6-3 6-1#544Daniil Ostapenkov

6-2 6-0#766Darian King

7-6(6) 6-2#572Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-4#220Henry Searle

6-3 6-4#544Daniil Ostapenkov

6-1 6-4#762Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#458Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#336Aidan Mayo

Andrew Fenty

8W 7L

7-5 6-2—Cooper Woestendick

6-3 1-6 6-3#573Kaylan Bigun

2-6 6-2 6-2#380Lui Maxted

6-3 6-4#589Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 6-3#621Michael Antonius

7-5 6-2#252Dylan Dietrich

6-2 6-4#266Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-3 6-3#588Erik Arutiunian

7-5 6-4#573Kaylan Bigun

6-7(6) 7-5 6-2#565Ryan Seggerman

7-5 7-5#541Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-2 6-3#688Keshav Chopra

7-5 6-4#345Alvaro Guillen Meza

7-5 6-2#462Evan Zhu

2-6 6-3 6-4#595Hunter Heck

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLTimo LegoutLegout

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Andrew FentyFentyAF

Timo Legout carries the stronger recent form — Andrew Fenty's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.8%+6.0pp62.8%

1st Serve Won64.8%+3.5pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won52.0%—52.1%

Aces / Match0.7+4.55.2

Double Faults / Match2.91.3 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.9%+7.3pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.4%+5.9pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved56.7%+4.9pp61.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.6%+2.6pp50.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

68.8%1st Serve In+6.0pp62.8%

64.8%1st Serve Won+3.5pp68.3%

52.0%2nd Serve Won—52.1%

0.7Aces / Match+4.55.2

2.9Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer4.2

Return · 1–0

44.9%Return Pts Won+7.3pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

47.4%Break Pts Converted+5.9pp41.5%

56.7%Break Pts Saved+4.9pp61.6%

Points · 1–0

52.6%Total Pts Won+2.6pp50.0%