ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Semen Pankin #430Russia2Egor Pleshivtsev #853Russia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Mon 26 Oct 2026, 03:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSemen Pankin · 423 places

Semen Pankin

Russia

ITF lists Pankin as a 26-year-old right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. His documented career-high ATP ranking is No. 414, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #430
Peak ranking: #414 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Egor Pleshivtsev

Russia

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #853
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:21 · Europe/Bucharest

The final qualifying round in Ningbo sets two low-ranked players against each other, and ranking and form disagree: Pankin is 430 but 3-8 on hard this season, Pleshivtsev is 853 but 5-4, with a win over the same Palan who beat Pankin in straight sets.

Pleshivtsev looks the likelier winner, and at 2.3 that price offers something. Pankin at 1.55 asks too much.

Context

Pleshivtsev has done much of his hard-court winning from behind, which makes the opening set a real weak point.
A 2-7 first-set record across nine hard-court matches makes Pankin the likelier player to lead early. The recovery is real, though: Pleshivtsev's second-set record is 5-4 in the same sample and three of his five hard-court wins needed a decider. Any read on this match has to hold the slow start and the comeback together.
- First sets across 9 hard-court matches, 9 August to 25 October 2026: 2 wins, 7 losses, 3.89 games won against 5.78 lost per set.
- Second sets across the same 9 matches: 5 wins, 4 losses.
- Scorelines in that sample: three 2-1 wins, two 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses.
Palan is the one recent opponent both men have faced, and the results run one way: Pleshivtsev won in three sets, Pankin did not take a set. One shared opponent ranked 620 is a thin thread rather than proof. It is still the closest thing to a direct form comparison in the record.
- 25 October 2026, hard court: Pleshivtsev beat Dominik Palan (ranked 620) 3-6, 6-1, 7-6, taking 16 games to 13 in a single completed match.
- Pankin lost to the same Palan 4-6, 2-6 on 19 October 2026.
Pankin's hard-court matches have been short and one-sided, and mostly they have gone against him.
Pankin's 3-8 hard-court record contains seven straight-set losses and three straight-set wins, with 20.45 total games per match on average. That profile works against a long three-set grind and supports short-match or low-tiebreak reads. It does not settle the winner, because the same record shows he loses these short matches far more often than he wins them.
- Hard-court scorelines across 11 matches, 31 August to 25 October 2026: three 2-0 wins, seven 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.
- Average sets per match 2.09 and average total games 20.45 in that sample.
- Three of the 11 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Pleshivtsev has better recent hard-court results and a common-opponent win over Palan.
- Pleshivtsev is 5-4 on hard and 9-6 overall in the last 15 matches.
- He beat Dominik Palan 2-1 on 25 October; Pankin lost to Palan 0-2 on 19 October.
- His hard-court total points won is 50.2%.
- He has won three of five hard-court matches in three sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEgor PleshivtsevEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set game average is just above 9.5, with Pankin's sets tending longer.
- Pankin's hard-court first sets average 10.27 games; Pleshivtsev's average 9.67.
- Pankin has had two first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches.
- Pleshivtsev has had one first-set tiebreak in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have tended to be shorter than first sets for both players.
- Pankin's hard-court second sets average 9.36 games; Pleshivtsev's average 8.78.
- Pleshivtsev has had no second-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court matches.
- Pankin has had one second-set tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court game averages sit just above the line, helped by Pleshivtsev's longer matches.
- Pankin's hard-court matches average 20.45 total games; Pleshivtsev's average 21.44.
- Pleshivtsev has played three three-set matches in nine hard-court matches.
- Pankin's latest match finished 13-10 in games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court records lean toward straight-set finishes.
- Pankin has completed 10 of 11 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Pleshivtsev has four 0-2 losses and two 2-0 wins in nine hard-court matches.
- Pankin's average sets per match is 2.09.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pleshivtsev starts slowly, and Pankin has the slightly better first-set record.
- Pankin has won the first set in 4 of 11 hard-court matches; Pleshivtsev in 2 of 9.
- Pleshivtsev lost the first set in all three of his three-set wins.
- Pankin's first-set games average is 4.82 won and 5.45 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSemen PankinEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pleshivtsev's second-set record and comeback wins point to an advantage.
- Pleshivtsev's second-set record is 5-4 on hard; Pankin's is 3-8.
- He won the second set 6-1 in his latest match after losing the first.
- Pankin has lost the second set in eight of 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostEgor PleshivtsevEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Pankin's hard-court matches have had a tiebreak 3 times in 11; Pleshivtsev's 2 times in 9.
- Pankin has completed 10 of 11 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Pleshivtsev has four 0-2 losses in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Semen Pankin

6W 9L

6-4 7-6(5)#775Maxim Zhukov

6-4 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-2 6-1—Xi Cheng Huang

6-1 6-0#375Yosuke Watanuki

7-5 6-4#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-2#174Alex Bolt

7-6(2) 6-4#898Sheng Tang

6-4 6-1#893Yaojie Zeng

5-7 7-5 6-3#228Elias Ymer

7-6(5) 6-4#182Alexis Galarneau

6-3 7-5#375Yosuke Watanuki

7-5 6-1—Dimitar Kisimov

7-6(4) 3-0 ret.#677Stefan Horia Haita

7-6(9) 3-6 6-2—Drazen Petrovic

6-2 6-1—Dusan Bazdar

Egor Pleshivtsev

9W 6L

3-6 6-1 7-6(7)#620Dominik Palan

7-6(5) 6-4#449Luca Castelnuovo

6-1 6-1#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 7-5#324Cruz Hewitt

6-4 6-1—Ye Hongyu

3-6 6-4 6-0#462Evan Zhu

7-5 6-1#284Yanki Erel

2-6 6-4 6-2—Yua Taka

6-3 7-6(8)—Arthur Laborde

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-3#881Artur Kukasian

6-1 6-3—Davit Zogranian

7-6(5) 6-1#569Ignacio Monzon

6-1 6-4—Unknown Player

6-1 6-1#2043Lawrence Bataljin

6-3 6-3#588Erik Arutiunian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SPSemen PankinPankin

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Egor PleshivtsevPleshivtsevEP

Egor Pleshivtsev carries the stronger recent form — Semen Pankin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.5%+4.2pp53.3%

1st Serve Won70.5%+2.8pp73.3%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+2.2pp48.7%

Aces / Match5.6+0.55.1

Double Faults / Match2.71.0 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.1%+4.5pp40.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.5%+9.1pp46.6%

Break Pts Saved55.4%+1.7pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.7pp50.8%

Serve · 4–1

57.5%1st Serve In+4.2pp53.3%

70.5%1st Serve Won+2.8pp73.3%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp48.7%

5.6Aces / Match+0.55.1

2.7Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won+4.5pp40.6%

Pressure · 0–2

37.5%Break Pts Converted+9.1pp46.6%

55.4%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.8%