United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Daniel Milavsky #319United States2Harry Wendelken #213United Kingdom1

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 6-3Mon 26 Oct 2026, 22:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarry Wendelken · 106 places

Daniel Milavsky

United States

A 24-year-old American right-hander with a two-handed backhand, listed at 193 cm. His current No. 306 is also his listed career high.

Current ranking: #319
Peak ranking: #306
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Harry Wendelken

United Kingdom

A 178 cm British right-hander, Wendelken reached a career-high No. 201 on 3 August 2026. His 2026 season included his ATP and Wimbledon main-draw debuts.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #201 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Milavsky's fast starts against Wendelken's three-set habit is the puzzle in this Sioux Falls first round.

Wendelken, 106 ranking places higher, is the slightly likelier winner, but 1.9 about him is fair rather than generous. The two better prices are 4.0 on Wendelken in three sets and 1.8 on Milavsky taking the opening set.

Context

Wendelken has dropped the opening set in nine of his 13 tracked hard-court matches, a pattern Milavsky has largely avoided.
Milavsky has averaged 5.27 first-set games won to 4.73 lost; Wendelken 4.31 to 5.38. That makes an early Milavsky lead the likelier shape of the match, though Wendelken's 8-5 second-set record shows he has recovered from slow starts before.
- Wendelken: 4-9 in first sets across 13 hard-court best-of-three matches, 29 July to 17 October 2026.
- Milavsky: 9-6 in first sets across 15 hard-court matches, 28 July to 21 October 2026.
- Milavsky averages 5.27 first-set games won and 4.73 lost; Wendelken 4.31 won and 5.38 lost.
The deciding-set habit cuts both ways: it shows Milavsky stays competitive deep into matches but also that he has lost five of them 1-2. Wendelken has eight three-set matches in 13, so extra sets look the norm rather than the exception here.
- Milavsky's 15 hard-court scorelines: five 2-0 wins, three 2-1 wins, five 1-2 losses, two 0-2 losses.
- Milavsky has won 21 of 38 sets (55.3%) in those matches, 28 July to 21 October 2026.
- His average hard-court match lasted 113.3 minutes across the 15 tracked matches.
It is the most recent line in an 8-7 hard-court run and his clearest recent test against a higher-ranked opponent. Two days earlier he had beaten Govind Nanda, ranked 781, 6-4 6-4. One result in either direction is a small sample, so this reads as a form note rather than a trend.
- 21 October 2026: Milavsky lost 1-6 4-6 to Darwin Blanch (ranked 159).
- The match was a completed, non-retired hard-court match in Milavsky's 15-match window.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
The ranking gap and nearly even hard-court records give Wendelken a narrow advantage.
- Wendelken is ranked 213; Milavsky is ranked 319.
- Wendelken's hard-court best-of-3 scorelines show 7 wins and 6 losses.
- Milavsky has an 8-7 hard-court record across 15 tracked matches.
- Wendelken's serve and return metrics are unavailable.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarry WendelkenEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average near or above 25 games, and a deciding set is slightly favored.
- Milavsky's hard-court matches average 24.5 total games across 15 matches.
- Wendelken's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 25.0 total games across 13 matches.
- Milavsky has eight three-set matches in 15; Wendelken has eight in 13.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Milavsky has been much stronger in first sets, while Wendelken has lost more first sets than he has won.
- Milavsky has a 9-6 first-set record on hard courts.
- Wendelken has a 4-9 first-set record on hard courts.
- Milavsky averages 5.27 first-set games won to 4.73 lost; Wendelken averages 4.31 won to 5.38 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniel MilavskyEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have three-set rates above 50% on hard courts, so a deciding set is more likely than not.
- Milavsky's hard-court scorelines include eight three-set matches in 15.
- Wendelken's hard-court best-of-3 scorelines include eight three-set matches in 13.
- Combined, 16 of 28 tracked hard-court matches went to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for these two have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Wendelken had tiebreaks in only 2 of 13 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Milavsky had tiebreaks in 7 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined, tiebreaks appeared in 9 of 28 tracked hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%

Daniel Milavsky

8W 7L

6-1 6-4#159Darwin Blanch

6-4 6-4#781Govind Nanda

6-3 1-6 6-3#159Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-2#412Blaise Bicknell

7-5 6-7(5) 6-2#351Timo Legout

4-6 7-6(2) 6-2#210Federico Agustin Gomez

7-6(5) 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-7(6) 6-3 6-3#104Lloyd Harris

6-3 6-3#124Rei Sakamoto

7-6(6) 7-5#209Edas Butvilas

5-7 7-5 7-6(0)#186Felix Balshaw

1-6 6-1 7-6(4)#580Keegan Rice

6-3 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

3-6 6-1 6-3#280Yi Zhou

6-2 0-6 6-3#468Quinn Vandecasteele

Harry Wendelken

8W 7L

6-3 4-6 6-0#178Gauthier Onclin

6-4 6-3#173Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-1#301Filippo Romano

6-2 6-4#193David Jorda Sanchis

6-2 6-3—Angel Veliz

6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5#23Luciano Darderi

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#142Vilius Gaubas

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#219Remy Bertola

6-4 3-6 6-3#167Stefano Travaglia

5-7 6-2 7-5#104Lloyd Harris

2-6 6-4 6-1#278Stefan Kozlov

3-6 6-3 6-1#148Borna Gojo

6-4 6-2#147Michael Mmoh

6-2 2-6 7-5#580Keegan Rice

6-5 ret.#268Murphy Cassone

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniel MilavskyMilavsky

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Harry WendelkenWendelkenHW

Daniel Milavsky carries the stronger recent form — Harry Wendelken's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1560.7%+8.4pp52.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.0%+1.7pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.9%+2.0pp48.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.7+1.14.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.7—3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1540.9%+0.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1536.3%+4.9pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.3%—58.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.1%+2.0pp49.1%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

60.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+8.4pp52.3%

69.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp67.3%

50.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp48.9%

5.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.14.6

3.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—3.9

Return · 1–0

40.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

36.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp41.2%

58.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15—58.5%

Points · 1–0

51.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp49.1%