FranceBrest - FranceFinishedFeatured

Calvin Hemery #276France1Robin Catry #586France2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 4-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 11:45Q3I.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCalvin Hemery · 310 places

Calvin Hemery

France

Born 28 January 1995; right-handed and 191 cm. His career-high singles ranking was No. 116 in April 2018; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #116 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Robin Catry

France

The French right-hander is ranked No. 586 and lists indoor hard courts as his preferred surface. He plays a one-handed backhand and stands 196 cm.

Current ranking: #586
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Hemery is higher-ranked and has the better recent record, while Catry brings nine hard-court matches from this window.

Hemery should win, but 1.3 asks for a 76.9% chance his form does not justify. The price with something in it is Catry at 3.2, where a 31.3% implied chance sits below a 40% reading.

Context

A Challenger qualifying match with no researched off-court developments; the read rests on a single hard-court match for one player against nine for the other, with no head-to-head on record.

Catry's recent hard-court sets have been compact: first sets averaged 8.8 games and second sets 9.3 games across the nine matches.
Across nine hard-court matches from 3 July to 25 October, Catry's results split into three 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses and one apiece in three sets. The typical match has been settled without a long deciding set, which makes a short match a reasonable default read. The sample is only nine matches, and Hemery's lone tracked hard-court match this window was also a two-set win.
- 7 of 9 hard-court matches ended in straight sets (three 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses)
- 20.7 games per match on average across those 9 matches, 3 July to 25 October
- Set 1 averaged 8.8 games, set 2 averaged 9.3 games
Catry's saving record has kept him competitive despite a 7-8 win-loss mark in that window.
Saving 63.1% of break points over 15 matches has limited the damage when Catry's second serve comes under pressure, since he wins only 51.5% of those points. Hemery's return points won sit at 39.0% over the same window, so that resistance is the main reason this could stay close. The sample covers 15 matches across surfaces, so it is a general guide rather than a hard-court-specific rate.
- 53 of 84 break points saved (63.1%) over 15 matches
- Second-serve points won 51.5% (184 of 357) in the same window
- 7-8 record across those 15 matches
Hemery's serving numbers combine a healthy first-serve rate with a low double-fault count.
Hemery's first serve landed 64.6% of the time and won 73.3% of points across 15 matches, and he gave away only 2.7 double faults per match. That low error count is the useful part of his profile for an indoor hard-court match: free points on serve without much leakage. Catry has averaged 3.4 double faults per match over the same span, so both servers can be expected to make the opponent work.
- 5.5 aces per match (82 in 15)
- 2.7 double faults per match (41 in 15)
- 64.6% first serves in (660 of 1021) and 73.3% of first-serve points won

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hemery has the stronger recent record and returns better, and he opened his Brest campaign with a straight-sets win.
- Hemery 11-4 in last 15; Catry 7-8
- Hemery 51.8% total points won vs Catry 50.9% (hard: 50.8%)
- Hemery return points won 39.0% vs Catry 37.3%
- Ranking 276 vs 586
BetBugs · Match WinnerCalvin HemeryEstimated chance60%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in Catry's hard-court matches have tended to finish at 6-3 or 6-4 rather than going long.
- Catry's first sets averaged 8.8 games on hard
- No tiebreaks in Catry's hard first sets over 9 matches
- Hemery's Brest first set was 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Catry's hard-court matches sit right around the line, and close serving makes a few extra games likely.
- Catry's hard matches averaged 20.7 games
- Catry's hard sets averaged 8.8 and 9.3 games
- Hemery's only hard match had 19 games
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 19.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hemery's stronger return numbers give him the better chance of an early break in the opening set.
- Hemery took set one 6-3 in his Brest match
- Catry is 5-4 in first sets on hard
- Catry averaged 4.8 games won in first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerCalvin HemeryEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have mostly finished inside two sets.
- Catry's hard matches averaged 2.22 sets over 9
- 7 of Catry's 9 hard matches ended in straight sets
- Hemery's only hard match was a two-set win
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court sets involving these two have usually been settled without reaching 6-6.
- 1 tiebreak in Catry's 9 hard matches
- 0 tiebreaks in Hemery's tracked hard match
- Catry's hard first sets average 8.8 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around five aces, putting the combined figure near the line but slightly below.
- Hemery 5.5 aces per match overall, 5 in his hard match
- Catry 5.1 aces per match on hard (46 in 9)
- Combined hard-court average is roughly 10.6 aces
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' double-fault rates add up to roughly the line, with Hemery notably low.
- Hemery 2.7 double faults per match overall
- Catry 3.6 per match on hard
- Combined recent average is around 6.3
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 6.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Calvin Hemery

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#875Adrien Gobat

6-1 6-4#230Raul Brancaccio

4-6 6-2 6-2#205Max Houkes

6-2 6-4#639Marlon Vankan

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(5)#888Benjamin Lock

6-2 6-1—Niklas Grunewald

6-3 6-3#888Benjamin Lock

6-4 6-4#293Florent Bax

6-1 6-4#625Dev Javia

6-1 6-4#771Rodrigo Alujas

6-1 6-3—Louis Van Herck

1-6 7-5 6-4#447Carlos Taberner

3-6 6-4 6-1#304Oriol Roca Batalla

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#368Daniel Elahi Galan

6-4 6-2#162Dusan Lajovic

Robin Catry

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#360Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-2 6-3#246Philip Henning

3-6 6-4 6-4#362Norbert Gombos

6-2 6-3#1748Gabriel Gomez

6-4 6-3#741Mukund Sasikumar

6-3 6-4#361Alibek Kachmazov

6-1 4-6 7-6(4)#1277Seon Yong Han

6-3 6-3—Nick Beamish

6-4 6-4#795Kousuke Ogura

7-6(5) 3-6 6-2#868Markus Molder

5-7 6-3 7-6(1)—Lucas Marionneau

7-5 6-3#1843Jordi Mas De Ugarte

6-3 6-1—Andrew Gaule

6-4 6-3#280Yi Zhou

6-2 6-3#374Dan Added

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CHCalvin HemeryHemery

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Robin CatryCatryRC

Calvin Hemery carries the stronger recent form — Robin Catry's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In64.6%+0.9pp63.7%

1st Serve Won73.3%+1.1pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+1.1pp51.5%

Aces / Match5.5+0.45.9

Double Faults / Match2.70.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.0%+1.7pp37.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted35.2%—35.6%

Break Pts Saved55.4%+7.7pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+0.9pp50.9%

Serve · 3–2

64.6%1st Serve In+0.9pp63.7%

73.3%1st Serve Won+1.1pp72.2%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp51.5%

5.5Aces / Match+0.45.9

2.7Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

39.0%Return Pts Won+1.7pp37.3%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

35.2%Break Pts Converted—35.6%

55.4%Break Pts Saved+7.7pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.9%