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Predictions graded

Alexandra Eala #202Mika Stojsavljevic #308United Kingdom0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Mon 26 Oct 2026, 08:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions9–190%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexandra Eala · 288 places

Alexandra Eala

Reached a career-high No. 20 after winning Washington on August 3, 2026, becoming the first Filipina to win a WTA Tour singles title. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #20
Peak ranking: #20 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Mika Stojsavljevic

United Kingdom

The available display profile lists indoor hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #308
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:57 · Europe/Bucharest

First meeting, first round in Tokyo: Eala, the No. 20 seed, against wild card Stojsavljevic, No.

308. Eala's 10-4 first-set record on hard courts makes her the clear favourite, but a 7-7 second-set split and four losses in her last six completed matches keep this from looking like a formality. The 1.1 match price offers nothing; the one worthwhile price is Over 2.5 sets at 3.3, with seven of her 14 hard-court matches going the distance.

Context

Stojsavljevic brings recent lower-tier title experience but has not yet converted that into a main-tour main-draw victory. This match gives that transition immediate relevance against a seeded opponent. Her W35 titles show that the winless tour record is not a complete account of her recent results.
- Stojsavljevic won senior W35 titles in 2024 and 2025 but has not won one of her four main-tour main-draw matches.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:55 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The sample covers Eala's hard-court matches from late July to 22 October 2026, with one retirement excluded.
Her opening sets average 5.57 games to 3.86, the strongest part of her record; the second set is close to even at 4.79 to 4.57. Any advantage tends to arrive early rather than build. Stojsavljevic has won four of nine first sets in her own hard-court sample, so the first set is where the gap shows most clearly.
- Set 1: 10 wins, 4 losses; average 5.57 games won to 3.86 lost (14 hard-court matches, 31 Jul-22 Oct 2026)
- Set 2: 7 wins, 7 losses; average 4.79 games won to 4.57 lost
- No tiebreaks in any of the 14 matches; average 2.5 sets per match
Eala’s seeding and Stojsavljevic’s wild-card entry define the tournament setting for their first meeting. The 288-place ranking gap explains why this is a seeded-player versus emerging-player pairing. Those positions describe entry status rather than either player’s prior results on Tokyo courts.
- Eala is the eighth seed and ranked No. 20, while Stojsavljevic enters on a wild card ranked No. 308.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:55 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The 2024 appearance is Stojsavljevic’s only established Tokyo reference before facing Eala. Its three-set score shows that her prior visit included a close set-by-set contest. It was two years earlier and against a different opponent, so it does not establish a direct matchup pattern.
- Stojsavljevic lost to Moyuka Uchijima in the first round of Tokyo in 2024, with two tiebreak sets in a three-set match.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:55 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexandra Eala

1.10fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 90.9%

−6.9ppshort

Eala is ranked 20 and has stronger hard-court set records, while Mika is 308 and 6-9 overall.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexandra Eala

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.7%

−4.7ppshort

Eala has won 10 of 14 first sets on hard courts and holds a clear ranking advantage.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexandra Eala

1.15fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 87%

−20.0ppshort

Eala has the better second-set and overall hard-court records, though her second-set edge is smaller than her first-set edge.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Alexandra Eala 2-0

1.36fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 73.5%

−19.5ppshort

Eala's strong first-set record and Mika's four straight-set losses support a straight-set win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Eala is ranked 20 and has stronger hard-court set records, while Mika is 308 and 6-9 overall.
- Ranked 20; Mika is 308
- Hard-court record 8-6; Mika 4-5
- First-set wins 10-4; Mika 4-5
- Second-set wins 7-7; Mika 3-6
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlexandra EalaEstimated chance84%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average near or above 21 total games, and Eala often goes three sets.
- Eala hard-court total games average 23.2
- Mika hard-court total games average 20.7
- Eala has seven three-set matches in 14
- Mika has three three-set matches in nine
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set averages are below 9.5 and neither has a first-set tiebreak.
- Eala set1 total games average 9.43
- Mika set1 total games average 9.0
- Eala set1 games won average 5.57
- Mika set1 games won average 4.44
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set game averages are below 9.5, and Eala has no tiebreaks in the hard-court sample.
- Eala set2 total games average 9.36
- Mika set2 total games average 8.78
- Eala set2 games lost average 4.57
- Mika set2 games lost average 4.89
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eala's recent wins have come by wide game margins, while Mika has had a double-digit game loss on hard courts.
- Eala's last two hard-court wins were by +8 and +7 games
- Eala lost her latest match by four games
- Mika lost her latest match by four games
- Mika has a 2-12 game loss to Kayla Cross
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlexandra Eala -4.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Eala has won 10 of 14 first sets on hard courts and holds a clear ranking advantage.
- Eala set1 wins 10-4 on hard
- Mika set1 wins 4-5 on hard
- Eala set1 games average 5.57-3.86
- Mika set1 games average 4.44-4.56
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlexandra EalaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Eala has the better second-set and overall hard-court records, though her second-set edge is smaller than her first-set edge.
- Eala set2 wins 7-7
- Mika set2 wins 3-6
- Eala overall hard-court 8-6
- Mika overall hard-court 4-5
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlexandra EalaEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Eala's hard-court wins have come in straight sets more often than not, and Mika's matches average 2.33 sets.
- Eala 5 2-0 wins and 2 0-2 losses in 14
- Mika 2 2-0 wins and 4 0-2 losses in 9
- Eala total sets average 2.5
- Mika total sets average 2.33
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Eala's strong first-set record and Mika's four straight-set losses support a straight-set win.
- Eala has five 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court matches
- Mika has four 0-2 losses in nine hard-court matches
- Eala set1 wins 10-4
- Mika set2 wins 3-6
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAlexandra Eala 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are rare in both players' hard-court samples, especially in first sets.
- Eala has no tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches
- Mika has one tiebreak in nine hard-court matches
- Eala set1 tiebreaks 0
- Mika set1 tiebreaks 0
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%

Prediction history

Alexandra Eala: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Alexandra Eala matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alexandra Eala15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Washington

#13Naomi Osaka0-2#28Alexandra Eala

BetBugsAlexandra Eala to win·55%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

WTA Washington

#13Naomi Osaka0-2#28Alexandra Eala

Alexandra Eala to win

55%probability

Alexandra Eala won

Matched

29 Jul·WTA Washington

#34Leylah Annie Fernandez0-2#28Alexandra Eala

BetBugsAlexandra Eala to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#34Leylah Annie Fernandez0-2#28Alexandra Eala

Alexandra Eala to win

58%probability

Alexandra Eala won

Matched

28 Jul·WTA Washington

#29Alexandra Eala2-1#123Qinwen Zheng

BetBugsAlexandra Eala to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#29Alexandra Eala2-1#123Qinwen Zheng

Alexandra Eala to win

62%probability

Alexandra Eala won

Matched

6 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#17Jasmine Paolini2-1#32Alexandra Eala

BetBugsAlexandra Eala to win·58%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#17Jasmine Paolini2-1#32Alexandra Eala

Alexandra Eala to win

58%probability

Jasmine Paolini won

Missed

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#32Alexandra Eala2-1#87Maya Joint

BetBugsAlexandra Eala to win·62%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#32Alexandra Eala2-1#87Maya Joint

Alexandra Eala to win

62%probability

Alexandra Eala won

Matched

Alexandra Eala

9W 6L

7-5 6-4#13Diana Shnaider

6-3 6-1#34Diane Parry

4-6 6-3 6-3#177Han Shi

4-6 7-5 6-3#120Tatiana Prozorova

7-5 3-6 7-5#12Iva Jovic

6-1 6-4#62Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-2#114Mary Stoiana

4-6 6-4 6-2#18Amanda Anisimova

6-1 3-0 ret.#60Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-4 6-0#14Belinda Bencic

6-3 5-7 6-4#59Caty McNally

6-1 4-6 6-2#64Alycia Parks

4-6 6-4 6-0#4Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-2#19Naomi Osaka

6-3 6-4#6Elina Svitolina

Mika Stojsavljevic

6W 9L

6-4 6-4#232Alicia Dudeney

6-2 3-6 6-1#309Oceane Dodin

6-3 6-2#523Andre Lukosiute

6-3 2-6 6-1—Sophie Bekker

6-1 6-1#186Kayla Cross

6-3 6-0#621Jodie Anna Burrage

6-4 6-3#289Malaika Rapolu

6-4 6-7(5) 7-5#309Oceane Dodin

6-2 6-1#14Belinda Bencic

6-2 7-6(2)#115Himeno Sakatsume

6-2 6-3#36Donna Vekic

6-4 6-7(8) 7-6(4)#29Nikola Bartunkova

6-4 6-7(2) 6-2#113Elvina Kalieva

3-6 6-1 7-5#134Emerson Jones

6-3 6-3#84Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AEAlexandra EalaEala

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Mika StojsavljevicStojsavljevicMS

Alexandra Eala carries the stronger recent form — Mika Stojsavljevic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.9%+3.2pp58.7%

1st Serve Won63.0%+1.7pp64.7%

2nd Serve Won48.9%+4.9pp44.0%

Aces / Match0.9+3.84.7

Double Faults / Match3.22.5 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.3%+4.6pp41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.7%+5.2pp51.9%

Break Pts Saved53.8%+3.0pp50.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+3.0pp48.9%

Serve · 3–2

61.9%1st Serve In+3.2pp58.7%

63.0%1st Serve Won+1.7pp64.7%

48.9%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp44.0%

0.9Aces / Match+3.84.7

3.2Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

46.3%Return Pts Won+4.6pp41.7%

Pressure · 1–1

46.7%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp51.9%

53.8%Break Pts Saved+3.0pp50.8%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+3.0pp48.9%