ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinished

Adrienn Nagy #441Hungary2Daria Yesypchuk #475Ukraine1

Sets 6-7 · 7-5 · 6-4Mon 26 Oct 2026, 12:05Q3I.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAdrienn Nagy · 34 places

Adrienn Nagy

Hungary

Nagy, 25, reached a career-high No. 504 in June 2023. Her supplied player profile lists her at No. 490; hand, height and declared surface preference are not established here.

Current ranking: #441
Peak ranking: #504 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Daria Yesypchuk

Ukraine

Ukrainian, ranked No. 495 in the structured ranking sample. All 15 of her tracked recent matches are on clay, where she has won 10. She was already at this venue the week before this fixture, entering as the No. 8 seed and winning one main-draw round.

Current ranking: #475
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:18 · Europe/Bucharest

A main-draw place is on the line in the Courmayeur qualifying final, and Nagy holds the only recent hard-court form: three matches, two wins, 60% of games.

Yesypchuk's last six matches were all on clay. Nagy is the fair lean, though the evidence is thin and the call is low confidence. No reviewed price on either player, so there is nothing worth backing at the odds.

Context

A Challenger-level qualifying final with no availability news and only a three-match hard-court sample on one side. The sporting conditions do not materially tilt the contest.

The fixture is a qualifying final at the Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open on 26 October. That makes advancement to the main draw the immediate tournament stake for both players. The available schedule does not identify a court assignment or player-specific preparation circumstance, so it does not distinguish either competitor.
- The qualifying final is scheduled for 26 October at 04:00 UTC in Courmayeur.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:17 · Europe/BucharestWTA Schedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 25 Oct 2026
Nagy's small hard-court sample hints at match shape more than it establishes a form line.
Across three matches the sets came quickly: 16.7 games per match on average and no tiebreak in any of them. Two of the three went her way, so the surface is not a hostile one, but three matches is too little to treat as a pattern. It does suggest her hard-court sets tend to be settled before a 7-6 or 7-5 finish.
- Set evidence from three completed hard-court matches, 28 September to 1 October 2026: 2-0 twice, 0-2 once, no tiebreaks, average 16.7 games per match.
Yesypchuk has no hard-court match in the tracked record, so her form arrives from a different surface.
She won three and lost three across that clay stretch, with the heaviest defeats against higher-ranked opponents in Pedone and Carole Monnet. The run says she is match-tight but gives no read on how her game travels on an indoor hard court. Nagy's only comparable recent evidence is on this surface, which is the asymmetry in the record.
- Six matches from 6 to 21 October 2026, all on clay; the most recent was a 4-6 2-6 loss to Georgia Pedone (No. 277) on 21 October 2026.
Nagy's serve numbers across 15 matches point to pressure on her second delivery.
Winning 40.5% of second-serve points means Nagy concedes ground whenever the first serve misses, and 3.7 double faults a match hands over free points. Her 55.6% break-points-saved rate has contained that damage across the sample. Yesypchuk's second-serve figure is 44.2% over her own 15 matches, so this is a modest edge rather than a decisive one.
- Last-15 sample: 40.5% second-serve points won (134/331) and 55.6% break points saved (79/142), with 3.7 double faults per match (56 in 15).

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nagy has the only recent hard-court evidence and a slightly higher ranking, while Yesypchuk's latest matches were on clay.
- Nagy is ranked 441 and Yesypchuk 475; their last-15 records are 9-6 and 8-7.
- Nagy has a 2-1 record in three completed hard-court matches this season, with 60% games won.
- Nagy's hard-court set record is 2-1 in first sets and 2-1 in second sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerAdrienn NagyEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate points to a little more than one and a half aces across a best-of-three match.
- Nagy averages 0.8 aces per match overall and 1.0 on hard courts.
- Yesypchuk averages 1.0 ace per match overall.
- The combined ace average is about 1.8 per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nagy's hard-court double-fault rate and Yesypchuk's overall rate make a total below six and a half slightly more likely.
- Nagy averages 3.7 double faults per match overall, and Yesypchuk averages 2.5.
- Nagy's current hard-court average is 2.0 double faults per match.
- The combined rate of 6.2 sits just below the 6.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 6.5Estimated chance56%

Adrienn Nagy

9W 6L

6-3 6-4#282Selena Janicijevic

6-3 6-3#413Iva Primorac

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#330Angelina Voloshchuk

6-4 6-2#108Lisa Pigato

6-4 6-3#330Angelina Voloshchuk

6-1 6-0—Polina Isakova

6-2 6-1#188Samira De Stefano

6-3 7-5#361Aran Teixido Garcia

6-3 7-6(3)#894Sophia Biolay

6-3 2-6 6-4#728Teodora Miron

7-6(8) 6-4#350Jessica Pieri

6-4 0-6 6-4#480Maria Sara Popa

4-6 6-3 6-1—Mariia Drobysheva

6-1 6-2—Juliana Nicole Singeorzan

7-6(3) 6-4#351Radka Zelnickova

Daria Yesypchuk

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#277Georgia Pedone

6-2 6-2#206Carole Monnet

3-6 6-4 6-4#329Lidia Encheva

6-1 6-1#448Marie Vogt

6-2 6-3#253Yasmine Kabbaj

6-2 6-2#528Ida Wobker

6-2 6-1#311Alisa Oktiabreva

6-1 6-1—Giulia Paterno

5-7 6-3 6-4#665Matilde Paoletti

6-1 6-1—Sara Milanese

6-1 6-4#392Lucia Cortez Llorca

6-1 6-0#668Merel Hoedt

6-3 6-2#361Aran Teixido Garcia

6-1 2-6 7-5#514Margaux Maquet

6-4 6-3#877Lian Tran

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ANAdrienn NagyNagy

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Daria YesypchukYesypchukDY

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.7%+10.0pp57.7%

1st Serve Won59.5%+2.0pp57.5%

2nd Serve Won40.5%+3.7pp44.2%

Aces / Match0.8—1.0

Double Faults / Match3.71.2 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won47.4%+3.5pp50.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted56.8%+9.1pp47.7%

Break Pts Saved55.6%+13.8pp41.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.0pp51.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

67.7%1st Serve In+10.0pp57.7%

59.5%1st Serve Won+2.0pp57.5%

40.5%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp44.2%

0.8Aces / Match—1.0

3.7Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

47.4%Return Pts Won+3.5pp50.9%

Pressure · 2–0

56.8%Break Pts Converted+9.1pp47.7%

55.6%Break Pts Saved+13.8pp41.8%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.4%