United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Kenta Miyoshi #441Japan0Gavin Young #542United States2

Sets 5-7 · 5-7Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKenta Miyoshi · 101 places

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

Reliable public profile details beyond the supplied ranking and playing style were limited in the requested search. No current injury or availability report surfaced for 17 July–16 August 2026.

Current ranking: #441
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Gavin Young

United States

Career-high ranking No. 551, recorded in July 2026. Public profile data lists hard as his preferred surface; reliable hand and height data were not found.

Current ranking: #542
Peak ranking: #551 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 10:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Level 7-8 hard-court records over the same window give this Sioux Falls qualifier a genuine split, and Miyoshi's better return numbers make him the likelier winner.

At 1.45, though, he is priced beyond what that edge justifies. The prices that do offer something sit with Gavin Young: 2.6 to win the match, 2.3 to take the second set.

Context

Losing two-thirds of opening sets puts Young behind early more often than not, and 4.27 games per first set shows the deficit is usually more than a single break. The recovery numbers cut the other way: he is 9-6 in second sets in the same sample. That split makes a slow start a risk rather than a verdict on the match.
- First sets: five wins, 10 losses across 15 hard-court matches, 9 Jul–20 Oct 2026.
- Averages 4.27 games won and 5.40 lost in first sets; second sets are 9-6 with 4.80 games won.
A scoreline like that against a player ranked well below him is the sharpest recent marker in Young's record and shows how quickly his serve-led game can unravel. It followed wins over Duncan Chan (472) and James Kent Trotter (551) at the same event, so the week was not a write-off. One match of this kind is a warning, not a trend.
- 20 Oct 2026: lost 4-6, 0-6 to Alex Rybakov (ranked 696).
- Same event, 18–19 Oct 2026: beat James Kent Trotter (551) and Duncan Chan (472).
The fixture is part of qualifying rather than the main draw, framing the immediate stakes for both players. It is listed on hard court, which matches Miyoshi's supplied preferred surface and is consistent with Young's hard-court profile. The supplied material does not establish court speed, indoor conditions, or a player-specific venue record, so it does not support a playing adjustment.
- The fixture is listed for the Sioux Falls qualifying round at 12:30.
- Huether Family Match Pointe is listed as the hard-court venue.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 10:08 · Europe/BucharestSioux Falls qualifying match listingwww.flashscore.in · 25 Oct 2026Match venue listingnb-bet.com · 25 Oct 2026
Seven of those 15 matches went the distance, and his average of 2.47 sets per match sits just below the two-set mark. The same sample shows 24.93 games per match. A two-set finish is the slight favourite in his record rather than a settled pattern.
- 15 completed hard-court matches, 7 Aug–21 Oct 2026: scorelines of 1-2 (five), 2-1 (two), 2-0 (five) and 0-2 (three).
- Average of 2.47 sets and 24.93 total games per match over the same sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Kenta Miyoshi

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Kenta has been steadier in first sets and Gavin has lost two-thirds of his first sets on hard courts.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kenta has the better return and total-point numbers over the same hard-court window, and Gavin's first-set record is notably weaker.
- Kenta is 7-8 on hard with 50.7% total points won; Gavin is 7-8 with 49.1%.
- Kenta wins 40.0% of return points and converts 41.6% of break points; Gavin wins 36.2% and converts 37.9%.
- Kenta holds a 71.2% first-serve points won mark and 6.5 aces per match; Gavin is at 68.9% and 4.7.
- Kenta is 8-7 in first sets on hard; Gavin is 5-10.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kenta's second sets have regularly gone past nine games, and the combined average sits above the threshold.
- Kenta's second sets average 10.67 total games on hard; Gavin's average 9.33.
- Kenta has four second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches; Gavin has none.
- Kenta's second sets average 5.53 games won and 5.13 lost.
- Gavin's second sets average 4.80 games won and 4.53 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are the more likely path, and Gavin's recent two-set matches have generally finished well below 24.5 games.
- Kenta's hard-court matches average 24.9 total games; Gavin's average 23.3.
- Kenta finished in straight sets in 8 of 15 hard-court matches; Gavin did so in 9 of 15.
- Gavin's four recent two-set matches averaged 17.3 total games.
- Kenta's recent two-set matches averaged 20.7 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-set totals are almost exactly on the threshold, with a slight pull toward 6-4 or longer sets.
- Kenta's first sets average 9.53 total games on hard; Gavin's average 9.67.
- Kenta has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches; Gavin has one.
- The 9.5-game threshold separates 6-3 or shorter sets from 6-4 or longer sets.
- Kenta averages 4.73 first-set games won and 4.80 lost; Gavin averages 4.27 and 5.40.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kenta has been steadier in first sets and Gavin has lost two-thirds of his first sets on hard courts.
- Kenta is 8-7 in first sets on hard, averaging 4.73 games won and 4.80 lost.
- Gavin is 5-10 in first sets on hard, averaging 4.27 games won and 5.40 lost.
- Kenta's overall match win estimate is 58%.
- Kenta has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches; Gavin has one.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome in both players' hard-court samples.
- Kenta finished in straight sets in 8 of 15 hard-court matches; Gavin did so in 9 of 15.
- Kenta's average match lasts 2.47 sets on hard; Gavin's lasts 2.40.
- Kenta has five 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses in the sample.
- Gavin has four 2-0 wins and five 0-2 losses in the sample.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have won nine of 15 second sets, but Kenta's slightly better game margin and overall points give him a small advantage.
- Kenta is 9-6 in second sets on hard, averaging 5.53 games won and 5.13 lost.
- Gavin is 9-6 in second sets on hard, averaging 4.80 games won and 4.53 lost.
- Kenta's overall match win estimate is 58%.
- Kenta's second sets include four tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' hard-court matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Kenta had no tiebreak in 9 of 15 hard-court matches; Gavin in 13 of 15.
- Kenta's set-level tiebreak count is 7 in 30 sets; Gavin's is 1 in 30.
- Kenta has three first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Gavin has one first-set tiebreak in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The paired ace averages fall short of 11.5, so under is the modest preference.
- Kenta averages 6.5 aces per match on hard.
- Gavin averages 4.7 aces per match on hard.
- Their combined average is 11.2 aces per match.
- Kenta has 97 aces in 15 hard-court matches; Gavin has 71.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined double-fault rate is above the threshold, though only slightly.
- Kenta averages 2.4 double faults per hard-court match.
- Gavin averages 2.5 double faults per hard-court match, from 35 in 14 matches.
- Their combined average is 4.9 double faults per match.
- Kenta has 36 double faults in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance54%

Kenta Miyoshi

7W 8L

6-0 6-7(3) 7-6(5)#864Patrick Maloney

6-4 7-6(0)#268Murphy Cassone

4-6 7-6(3) 7-5#451Sander Jong

6-3 6-3#688Keshav Chopra

6-3 7-5#104Lloyd Harris

6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-3#339Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#454Moerani Bouzige

7-6(2) 6-3#641Filip Peliwo

4-6 6-4 7-5#194Moise Kouame

6-2 4-6 6-2#290Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 6-4#152Clement Chidekh

6-2 7-5#173Joel Schwaerzler

4-6 7-5 6-1#684Roger Pascual Ferra

6-0 6-1#669Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#318Lucas Poullain

Gavin Young

7W 8L

6-4 6-0#696Alex Rybakov

4-6 6-1 6-4#472Duncan Chan

1-6 6-4 6-3#551James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-2 6-2#401Edward Winter

6-2 6-4—William Manning

7-5 6-3#160Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 3-6 7-5#731Jack Anthrop

7-6(5) 6-2—Cooper Woestendick

5-7 7-5 6-3#406Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4—Richard Biagiotti

7-5 6-3#486Yassine Dlimi

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#628Aidan Kim

4-6 6-4 7-5#349Mitchell Krueger

6-3 7-5—William Manning

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KMKenta MiyoshiMiyoshi

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Gavin YoungYoungGY

Kenta Miyoshi carries the stronger recent form — Gavin Young's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.1%+10.7pp66.8%

1st Serve Won71.2%+2.3pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+2.3pp48.6%

Aces / Match6.5+1.84.7

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.4—2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.0%+3.8pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.6%+3.7pp37.9%

Break Pts Saved54.4%+7.3pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+1.6pp49.1%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

56.1%1st Serve In+10.7pp66.8%

71.2%1st Serve Won+2.3pp68.9%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp48.6%

6.5Aces / Match+1.84.7

2.4Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—2.5

Return · 1–0

40.0%Return Pts Won+3.8pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

41.6%Break Pts Converted+3.7pp37.9%

54.4%Break Pts Saved+7.3pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+1.6pp49.1%

Kenta Miyoshi

Gavin Young

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gavin Young

Gavin Young

Kenta Miyoshi

Kenta Miyoshi 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Kenta Miyoshi

Gavin Young

Stat Battle