ChinaWTA GuangzhouFinished

Predictions graded

Anastasia Zakharova #111Russia0Teodora Kostovic #144Serbia2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:20 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Zakharova · 33 places

Anastasia Zakharova

Russia

Zakharova, 24, is right-handed and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 65 in April 2026. Her WTA biography lists Vladimir Zakharov as her coach.

Current ranking: #111
Peak ranking: #65 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Teodora Kostovic

Serbia

Serbian right-hander born 28 June 2007. Her recorded career-high ranking is No. 146, reached in July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Zakharova is the higher-ranked player but 6-9 on hard courts in her last 15, while Kostovic has won nine of 14 and starts matches strongly.

Zakharova still looks the likelier winner. The 1.8 price does not justify backing it, needing 55.6% against a 55% reading, and Kostovic at 2.0 is also short of the mark, so no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Kostovic's front-running shapes the early part of this match against an opponent who has won only 7 of 15 opening sets. A fast start would test Zakharova's second serve, on which she wins 45.6% of points. The sample is 14 matches, so it describes a stretch rather than a fixed pattern.
- Kostovic set1 record: 11 wins, 3 losses across 14 hard-court matches, 25 Aug to 24 Oct 2026.
- Set1 games: 5.57 won, 3.79 lost per match; no first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
That is steady exposure on the weaker side of her service games and gives Kostovic a route into return games even when Zakharova lands a first serve at 67.7%. She offsets it partly with 60.6% of first-serve points won. The numbers cover 15 matches, so they describe a stretch rather than a permanent trait.
- Second-serve points won: 45.6% (136 of 298) over 15 hard-court matches, 8 Aug to 24 Oct 2026.
- Double faults 3.1 per match (47 total); break points saved 53.8% (57 of 106).
The result gives Zakharova a concrete same-venue outdoor-hard-court match immediately before this fixture. Its 67-minute duration adds context on her workload entering the next qualifying round. Zhang’s wildcard entry and No. 392 ranking limit the extent to which this score can describe the test posed by Kostovic.
- Zakharova won 6-2, 6-2 in 1 hour 7 minutes .
- Zhang entered qualifying on a wildcard at No. 392.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/BucharestZakharova vs Zhang match recordwww.tennismajors.com · 24 Oct 2026Zakharova vs Zhang draw recordwww.tennis.com · 24 Oct 2026
This places the fixture in the qualifying phase immediately before the 32-player main draw begins. The outdoor hard-court setting is relevant tournament orientation for both players. It establishes event format and timing rather than a player-specific playing condition.
- The main draw runs from 26 October to 1 November at Nansha International Tennis Center.
- The event is played on outdoor hard courts as a WTA 250.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Guangzhou Open event pageen.wikipedia.org · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Anastasia Zakharova

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

Zakharova has the higher ranking, has faced much stronger recent opposition, and spent less time on court in the previous round.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Zakharova has the higher ranking, has faced much stronger recent opposition, and spent less time on court in the previous round.
- Ranked 111 vs 144 on hard court
- Hard-court record 6-9, with recent opponents including Bouzkova (26), Bencic (14), Sonmez (63), and Starodubtseva (50)
- Beat Ruien Zhang 2-0 (12-4) in the previous round
- Kostovic is 9-5 on hard but against mostly lower-ranked opposition
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnastasia ZakharovaEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic's longer matches lift the combined average just above the line.
- Zakharova match total games average: 18.9
- Kostovic match total games average: 22.6
- Combined average: about 20.7 games
- Kostovic's recent totals include 24, 25, 28, 33 and 30 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both players have ended in two sets.
- Zakharova: 14 straight-set matches in 15
- Kostovic: 9 straight-set matches in 14
- Combined: 23 straight-set matches in 29
- Average sets: 2.07 and 2.36
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic has won far more first sets and concedes fewer games in them.
- Kostovic set1 record: 11 wins, 3 losses
- Zakharova set1 record: 7 wins, 8 losses
- Kostovic set1 games: 5.57 won, 3.79 lost
- Zakharova set1 games: 4.93 won, 4.60 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTeodora KostovicEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Zakharova: 3 matches with a tiebreak in 15
- Kostovic: 2 matches with a tiebreak in 14
- Combined: 24 of 29 matches without a tiebreak
- Set2 tiebreaks: 2 for Zakharova, 2 for Kostovic
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Anastasia Zakharova

6W 9L

6-2 6-2#611Ruien Zhang

7-5 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

6-3 6-3#105Polina Kudermetova

6-1 7-5#50Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-3 6-2#63Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 7-6(3)#14Belinda Bencic

6-0 6-2#684Yushan Shao

6-4 6-1#24Jelena Ostapenko

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#19Naomi Osaka

6-4 6-3#323Kylie Collins

7-6(6) 6-0#72Anna Blinkova

6-4 6-2#107Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-1#98Hanne Vandewinkel

6-2 6-1#279Katrina Scott

7-5 6-2#295Ayana Akli

Teodora Kostovic

10W 5L

6-3 0-6 6-3—Unknown Player

6-3 6-4#166Martyna Kubka

7-5 7-6(5)#157Elsa Jacquemot

4-6 6-4 6-2#91Antonia Ruzic

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#153Dalma Galfi

6-1 ret.#231Berfu Cengiz

2-6 6-4 7-5#231Berfu Cengiz

7-5 7-5#142Polina Iatcenko

6-0 7-5#249Fangran Tian

6-3 6-1#322Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-3 6-1#258Carolyn Ansari

6-3 6-4#79Kaitlin Quevedo

6-4 6-1#131Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#831Victoria Luiza Barros

4-6 6-4 6-4#256Arantxa Rus

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AZAnastasia ZakharovaZakharova

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Teodora KostovicKostovicTK

Teodora Kostovic carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Zakharova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In67.7%+8.3pp59.4%

1st Serve Won60.6%+8.6pp69.2%

2nd Serve Won45.6%+3.9pp49.5%

Aces / Match1.7+1.83.5

Double Faults / Match3.10.4 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.1%+1.8pp43.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.6%+3.9pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved53.8%+8.3pp62.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.8pp52.2%

Serve · 2–3

67.7%1st Serve In+8.3pp59.4%

60.6%1st Serve Won+8.6pp69.2%

45.6%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp49.5%

1.7Aces / Match+1.83.5

3.1Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

45.1%Return Pts Won+1.8pp43.3%

Pressure · 0–2

43.6%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp47.5%

53.8%Break Pts Saved+8.3pp62.1%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.8pp52.2%