PortugalLouleFinishedFeatured

Laura Mair #443Italy0Aran Teixido Garcia #365Spain2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Sat 24 Oct 2026, 11:44Semi-FinalHard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaria Aran Teixido Garcia · 78 places

Laura Mair

Italy

Mair is listed at No. 443, with clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #443
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Maria Aran Teixido Garcia

Spain

Teixido Garcia, 25, is right-handed and has reached a career-best No. 358 singles ranking. No reliable preferred-surface or height listing was found.

Current ranking: #365
Peak ranking: #358
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Both players have won three matches in Loule this week, so a place in the final turns on whether Mair's stronger hard-court numbers hold against the higher-ranked Teixido Garcia.

Mair's edge in games and points won, plus four opening sets taken from four on this surface, makes her the likelier winner. At 2.10 that price is worth taking; Teixido Garcia at 1.67 asks for more than her record supports.

Context

No fitness, availability or venue information was found for either player. Context rests on the Court 1 order of play and a three-set February meeting Mair won.

Mair's starts have been the most reliable part of her hard-court week.
In that four-match window Mair won all four first sets at an average of 6-2.25, with no tiebreak in any of them. Her second sets split 2-2, so the fast start has not always become a straightforward win. The opening set against Teixido Garcia is where that pattern gets tested.
- Set 1 on hard: 4 wins, 0 losses across four matches, 13-23 October 2026
- Average first set score 6-2.25, no tiebreaks in the four matches
- Second sets split 2-2, averaging 4.75 games won to 5.25 lost
Over the 15-match tracked window to 23 October 2026, her second serve has yielded 37.5% of points (130/347) and she has averaged 7.4 double faults a match from 111 in total. A first serve landing 67.8% of the time (732/1079) limits how often that second delivery is exposed. Opponents who return steadily will target it.
- 15 tracked matches to 23 October 2026: 111 double faults, 7.4 per match
- Second-serve points won 37.5% (130/347)
- First serve in 67.8% (732/1079)
The Court 1 listing places this semi-final in a defined order-of-play sequence. Its start time depends on completion of the preceding Falkowska–Urgesi match. Both players share that schedule, so it establishes no player-specific logistical difference.
- The order of play places the match on Court 1 at 11:30 following Falkowska–Urgesi.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:18 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 23 Oct 2026
The February meeting supplies a recent direct reference point between these players. It required three sets, making it more informative than a routine straight-sets result. The available account does not provide court-condition or current-availability detail, limiting its value for this Loule semi-final.
- Their February 2026 meeting in Manacor went to three sets, with Mair prevailing.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 22:18 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.in · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Mair has been the stronger player on this surface, winning a clearly higher share of games and points and dominating opening sets.
- Hard-court games won: Mair 58.1% (54/93), Teixido Garcia 50.0% (55/110)
- Hard-court total points won: Mair 52.1% (258/495), Teixido Garcia 49.6% (372/750)
- Set 1 on hard: Mair 4-0 at an average of 6-2.25 games
- Three straight wins this week in Loule, including over the world No. 222
BetBugs · Match WinnerLaura MairMarket price2.10Estimated chance58%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mair's first sets have finished quickly, which pulls the combined figure below the line.
- Mair's first sets average 8.25 total games
- Teixido Garcia's first sets average 9.6 total games
- Mair has conceded only 2.25 games per first set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' recent hard-court matches have routinely carried past this line.
- Mair's hard-court matches average 23.25 total games
- Teixido Garcia's hard-court matches average 22.0 total games
- Teixido Garcia's average match length on hard is 133 minutes
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the looser part of both players' matches, with more breaks and longer games.
- Mair's second sets average 10.0 total games on hard
- Teixido Garcia's second sets average 9.2 total games
- Both players average five or more double faults per match on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mair has started every hard-court match strongly and conceded very few games in first sets.
- Set 1 on hard: Mair 4-0, Teixido Garcia 4-1
- Mair's average first set on hard is 6-2.25
- Mair has taken the opening set in all three wins this week
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerLaura MairEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are tighter for both, but Mair's overall edge still gives her the better share.
- Set 2 on hard: Mair 2-2, Teixido Garcia 2-3
- Mair averages 4.75 games won in second sets on hard
- Teixido Garcia averages 4.4 games won in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerLaura MairEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome for both players in this window.
- Five of nine combined recent hard-court scorelines ended 2-0
- Mair has won two of four hard matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Breaks come frequently for both, so sets are usually decided before a tiebreak.
- One tiebreak across nine combined recent hard-court matches
- Mair averages 1.3 aces and Teixido Garcia 1.0 per match on hard
- Both convert over 50% of break points on the surface
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The two players together average more than two aces a match, so two or more is the likelier outcome.
- Mair 1.3 aces per match on hard (4 in 3 matches)
- Teixido Garcia 1.0 aces per match on hard (5 in 5 matches)
- Combined hard-court average just over two aces per match
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both women serve many double faults on this surface, so the combined total should clear the line.
- Mair 6.3 double faults per match on hard (19 in 3)
- Teixido Garcia 7.2 double faults per match on hard (36 in 5)
- Combined hard-court average around 13.5 per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 10.5Estimated chance68%

Laura Mair

8W 7L

6-0 6-4#222Angela Fita Boluda

6-4 7-5#637Tian Jialin

6-2 4-6 6-2#536Enola Chiesa

3-6 6-2 7-5#107Lucrezia Stefanini

6-1 6-3#150Jazmin Ortenzi

6-2 4-6 6-4#897Patricia Georgiana Goina

6-2 6-2#146Elizara Yaneva

6-0 6-2—Eleonora Toneva

3-6 6-4 6-3#690Marianne Argyrokastriti

6-1 6-3#1228Ana Giraldi Requena

6-2 6-4—Aliesia Reva

6-4 6-2#577Neus Torner Sensano

7-5 6-3#485Marie Mettraux

6-3 6-3#510Sofia Shapatava

6-1 6-3#363Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Aran Teixido Garcia

8W 7L

6-4 5-7 6-3—Sophie Luescher

6-2 6-2#731Alba Rey Garcia

6-4 6-3—Polina Isakova

6-3 2-6 6-3#128Laura Samson

6-1 6-3#155Robin Montgomery

7-6(3) 6-0#214Clara Burel

6-4 6-0#379Diletta Cherubini

2-6 7-5 6-2#333Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-3 6-2#475Daria Yesypchuk

7-5 6-0#493Pia Lovric

6-1 6-1#485Marie Mettraux

6-3 7-5#441Adrienn Nagy

6-2 6-3#821Matilde Mariani

6-4 4-6 7-5#406Denisa Zoldakova

6-7(6) 6-2 6-1#546Carson Tanguilig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LMLaura MairMair

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Aran Teixido GarciaGarciaAG

Laura Mair carries the stronger recent form — Aran Teixido Garcia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1556.6%+11.2pp67.8%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1558.6%+0.9pp57.7%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1542.9%+5.4pp37.5%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/151.1+0.40.7

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.53.9 fewer7.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.2%—49.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1550.8%+7.2pp58.0%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1553.3%+1.1pp52.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1550.5%—50.4%

Serve · 4–1

56.6%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+11.2pp67.8%

58.6%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+0.9pp57.7%

42.9%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.4pp37.5%

1.1Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+0.40.7

3.5Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/153.9 fewer7.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15—49.7%

Pressure · 1–1

50.8%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+7.2pp58.0%

53.3%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+1.1pp52.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15—50.4%