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Predictions graded

Kaylan Bigun #573United States1Aidan Mayo #336United States2

Sets 6-1 · 0-6 · 5-7Thu 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Mayo · 237 places

Kaylan Bigun

United States

American left-hander born on 23 May 2006. Public player records list a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 507 in June 2026; no reliable source in this search established a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #573
Peak ranking: #507 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #336
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:10 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension is a qualifier riding a three-day winning run against a higher-ranked opponent who needed a match point to reach this round.

Mayo, No. 336 to Bigun's No. 573, should edge it, but not by enough to justify 1.5 for him to lead after the first set or 2.0 for a 2-0 win. Bigun at 2.6 is the one quote that makes sense.

Context

The No. 573 qualifier has been a quick starter in this hard-court sample despite the ranking gap.
Ten of 15 opening sets went his way and only one needed a tiebreak, so he tends to settle quickly into a match. The gains thin out after that: second sets split 9-6 with games almost level at 4.93 to 4.53. A fast opening set is his most plausible route into this one.
- Bigun's 15 hard-court matches from 5 August to 20 October 2026 produced a 10-5 first-set record, with 5.53 games won and 3.93 lost per opening set.
- Only one of those 15 first sets reached a tiebreak.
- His second sets in the same sample finished 9-6, with games at 4.93 won and 4.53 lost.
The left-hander's serve starts rallies more than it finishes them, and the second delivery is the soft spot.
He averaged 4.8 aces and 3.3 double faults a match, so free points do not carry him. The second serve at 50.5% of points won is the clear place for Mayo to press. Bigun's return game, at 40.4% of points, is the part that keeps him level on total points.
- Bigun's 15 tracked matches to 20 October 2026 show 633 of 1,043 first serves in (60.7%) and 70.8% of first-serve points won.
- He won 50.5% of second-serve points (207 of 410) across the same 15 matches.
- He averaged 4.8 aces and 3.3 double faults per match in that sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Aidan Mayo

1.50fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 66.7%

−13.7ppshort

Mayo's first-set record on hard is the strongest starting record in the match.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Aidan Mayo 2-0

2.00fair 3.23

BetBugs 31% · Market 50%

−19.0ppshort

Mayo's strong first-set record and higher ranking point to a straight-set win if he serves well.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo has the higher ranking and the stronger serve, and he has started sets well on hard courts.
- ATP ranking: Mayo 336, Bigun 573
- First-serve points won: Mayo 73.4%, Bigun 70.8%
- Aces per match: Mayo 6.3, Bigun 4.8
- Set1 record on hard: Mayo 12-3, Bigun 10-5
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's second sets have been longer than Bigun's, pushing the combined average above 9.5.
- Set2 total games average: Bigun 9.47, Mayo 10.2
- Set2 tiebreaks: two each in 15 hard-court matches
- Mayo's second sets average 10.2 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' match averages are around 22 games, with straight-set wins the common result.
- Total games average: Bigun 21.8, Mayo 22.47
- Total sets average: Bigun 2.33, Mayo 2.27
- Straight-set matches: Bigun 10 of 15, Mayo 11 of 15
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have averaged just under 9.5 games on hard courts.
- Set1 total games average: Bigun 9.47, Mayo 9.47
- Set1 tiebreaks: one each in 15 hard-court matches
- Set1 games lost average: Bigun 3.93, Mayo 3.87
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players win most of their hard-court matches without dropping a set.
- Straight-set matches: Bigun 10 of 15, Mayo 11 of 15
- Mayo has eight 2-0 wins in 15 hard-court matches
- Bigun has seven 2-0 wins in 15
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Mayo's first-set record on hard is the strongest starting record in the match.
- Set1 record on hard: Mayo 12-3, Bigun 10-5
- Set1 games: Mayo 5.6 won, 3.87 lost
- Bigun has won five of his last six first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court matches have been completed without a tiebreak.
- Matches with a tiebreak: Bigun 3 of 15, Mayo 4 of 15
- Set1 tiebreaks: one each
- Set2 tiebreaks: two each
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pair's combined ace average is slightly below 11.5.
- Aces per match: Mayo 6.3, Bigun 4.8
- Combined average: 11.1 aces
- Mayo has 95 aces in 15 matches, Bigun 72
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is slightly above 7.5, driven by Mayo.
- Double faults per match: Bigun 3.3, Mayo 4.4
- Combined average: 7.7
- Mayo has 66 double faults in 15 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Kaylan Bigun

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#474Trevor Svajda

6-3 6-2#524Patrick Zahraj 6-3 1-6 6-3#456Andrew Fenty

6-3 7-5#512Li Tu

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#196Keegan Smith

6-3 6-2#434Alafia Ayeni

6-3 6-4#766Noah Zamora

7-5 6-4#456Andrew Fenty

7-5 6-0#572Bryce Nakashima

2-6 6-3 6-3#688Keshav Chopra

6-1 7-6(4)#669Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-1 6-4#663Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3—Maximus Dussault

6-3 6-2#597Naoya Honda

4-6 6-3 6-2—Sam Landau

Aidan Mayo

10W 5L

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#218Colton Smith

7-6(7) 7-5#306Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 7-6(8)#218Colton Smith

6-4 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-4#406Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2—Jordan Lee

1-6 6-4 6-4#565Ryan Seggerman

6-3 7-6(7)#224Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#541Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-4#338Andres Martin

6-4 2-6 6-4#848Benjamin Willwerth

7-5 7-5#756Matthew Forbes

4-6 7-5 6-3#688Keshav Chopra

6-3 6-2—Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

6-2 6-3#351Timo Legout

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KBKaylan BigunBigun

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Aidan MayoMayoAM

Kaylan Bigun carries the stronger recent form — Aidan Mayo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.7%+4.0pp56.7%

1st Serve Won70.8%+2.6pp73.4%

2nd Serve Won50.5%—51.2%

Aces / Match4.8+1.56.3

Double Faults / Match3.31.1 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.4%—39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted38.1%+1.3pp36.8%

Break Pts Saved64.8%+1.6pp63.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.7%—51.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.7%1st Serve In+4.0pp56.7%

70.8%1st Serve Won+2.6pp73.4%

50.5%2nd Serve Won—51.2%

4.8Aces / Match+1.56.3

3.3Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer4.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.4%Return Pts Won—39.9%

Pressure · 2–0

38.1%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp36.8%

64.8%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp63.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won—51.6%