Katie Boulter #54United Kingdom22 – 0Himeno Sakatsume #115Japan0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75

The read

Sakatsume has the better hard-court record and stronger serve and return numbers, while Boulter has lost seven of ten on the surface.

• Sakatsume is 9-6 on hard, Boulter 3-7.
• Sakatsume has won 52.9% of games on hard, Boulter 41.4%.
• Sakatsume averages 2.8 double faults per hard match, Boulter 7.2.
• Sakatsume won their only meeting 7-5 6-3 in the 2023 Gifu final.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Sakatsume's positive game balance means she can cover +2.5 even in a narrow loss.

• Sakatsume has won 181 and lost 161 games on hard, a margin of +20.
• Boulter has a -36 game margin on hard (87-123).
• Sakatsume's recent hard-court margins were -5, +6, +6, +7, -5 and -1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Both players' hard-court matches average around 21 to 23 games, with Sakatsume's recent matches often going long.

• Boulter's hard-court matches average 21.0 total games.
• Sakatsume's hard-court matches average 22.8 total games.
• Sakatsume's recent totals include 28, 25 and 39 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.40

The read

Sakatsume has dominated second sets on hard, winning eleven of fifteen.

• Sakatsume has won 11 of 15 second sets on hard.
• Boulter has won 1 of 10 second sets on hard.
• Sakatsume averages 5.3 games won and 3.8 lost in second sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40

The read

Sakatsume has a slight edge in first-set wins and games on hard.

• Sakatsume has won 7 of 15 first sets on hard.
• Boulter has won 4 of 10 first sets on hard.
• Sakatsume averages 4.9 games won and 5.1 lost in first sets.